compounded dividends @CTums5

will AI kill us in 10 years… buddy, the bond market is going to kill us next week.

@lhamtil @AmityShlaes Excellent read.

2% inflation is not what is really happening...

@Benif_ch Agree. I hold $SPY (index) as a large portion of my equities also.

One reason why US consumer sentiment has been depressed: wages haven’t kept up with inflation for a large portion of workers. This study found that 43% of workers who stayed at the same company from 2021–2024 experienced a significant real wage drop nber.org/papers/w35624

@BrandonVanZee Imagining neighborhood kids getting Walmart candy instead of HSY and MDLZ. ;) I think there’s room for a little competition. Long all 3.

Instead of lowering the capital gains tax rate, Trump should follow advice Professor Siegel gave to George Bush in 2002- to end the double taxation of dividends. Before the heavy issuance of stock options to compensate management, we had an average 3-4% dividend yield on the market-- and even higher historically. We now have a record low dividend yield of 1% because so much of tax code encourages use of debt financing and stock buybacks. Making dividends tax deductible-just like interest-- would be another way to bring earnings back to the US and eliminate incentives for firms using tax havens like Ireland to achieve lower corporate rates. This proposal from Siegel is 24 years old - but still quite relevant today. @SecScottBessent knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/a-simp…

64. As in 64 consecutive months with US core inflation above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed has lost all credibility when it comes to fighting inflation. Kevin Warsh talks a big game, but talk is cheap. The Fed should have hiked rates yesterday and ended QE.

Stock Market hits most expensive valuation in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the run-up to the Great Depression 🤯👀

HUGE jump in US PPI inflation: Powered by an eye-popping 1.4% rise in April, nearly triple the 0.5% consensus, the annual rate has hit 6% (crushing the 4.8% consensus forecast). Core PPI followed suit, surging 1% (vs. 0.3% expected), bringing annual core inflation to 5.2% (consensus was 4.3%). While the mapping isn't 1:1, these numbers strongly suggest that higher consumer inflation is still coming through the pipeline. #economy #markets #inflation

The U.S. 30-Year Yield is now 5.03%. It has only been higher for a handful of days in the last 19 years. And it is now just 8 basis points from a new 19-year high.

April PPI #inflation comes in hot at +1.4% m/m vs. +0.5% est. & +0.7% prior (revised up from +0.5%) … core +1.0% m/m vs +0.3% est. & +0.2% prior (revised up from +0.1%)

April PPI #inflation +6.0% y/y vs. +4.8% est. & +4.3% prior (revised up from +4.0%) … core +5.2% y/y vs. +4.3% est. & +4.0% (revised up from +3.8% prior)

@GenExDividend 3.1%. Low.

Here is a recap of the day. The dollar had one of its worst days ever. It lost over 2.3% against the euro and yen, and 3.9% against the Swiss franc. Gold surged to another record high above $3,175, up more than $90 today and $100 yesterday. Treasury bonds got clobbered with the yield on the 10-year rising to 4.43% and the yield on the 30-year rising to 4.88%. The Dow fell 2.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 3.5%, the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ tanked 4.3%, while gold stocks surged almost 5%, hitting new 52-week highs. Oh, and for anyone who cares, Bitcoin fell 3.5% too. Does this seem like we are winning the trade war?

What is stagflation? A period of where economic growth slows to the point the unemployment rate rises, usually amidst a shock - tariffs count - and inflation also rises. It is unusual & requires different policies from the Fed than most are accustomed to. The last bout of stagflation was the 1970s. That is what we are about to endure in 2025. The fact that the pandemic-induced inflation is still smoldering and has left a scar doesn’t help adds to that narrative. What does the Fed do? It waits. It can’t offset the weakness to ward off or counter a recession like it normally might. It needs to know that inflation is coming down, will continue its descent and stay low before cutting. If it cuts too soon, it risks a temporary bump to growth for a more lingering surge in inflation and long-term rise in unemployment. The cycle can take on a vicious nature and be prolonged if the Fed doesn’t hold the line on inflation. This is the Fed’s worst nightmare. It know the stakes better than most. The Fed had to eat crow when inflation proved more persistent post pandemic. It can’t, nor can we, afford to repeat that & of the mistakes of the 1970s today. Hence, so many in Fed leadership evoking 1970s as a cautionary tale. Rock and hard place. Stuck in the middle. The Fed knows what some have forgotten - that was a horrific period.

The S&P 500 has fallen more than 12% since Trump's Liberation Day announcement. The 10-year Treasury yield is slightly higher than it was before the announcement.

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Swap spread getting crushed again after the 3y auction which suggests to me it will be harder to fund our budget deficit going forward since we'll be relying on domestic funding which will require/demand higher rates

BREAKING Markets are improving on less Lutnick and more Bessent. Expect more of it. Story developing