Tom Kloza @TomKloza
Dean of U.S. oil analysts, foremost expert on North American fuel markets, a founder of Oil Price Information Service opisnet.com/about/opis-tea… Wall, NJ Joined October 2013-
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Corrected OPIS Reflation/Disinflation Gauge April 2022 April 2023 April 2024 Retail Gasoline $4.1305 $3.6186 $3.6256 Retail Diesel $5.0726 $4.1916 $4.0422
OPIS Reflation/Disinflation Watch: April 2022 April 2023 April 2024 Retail Gasoline $3.6256 $3.6186 $4.1305 Retail Diesel $5.0726 $4.1916 $4.0422
Last weeks' US gas demand number (8.42-mil b/d) is actually the lowest measurement of an April week (excepting COVID 2020) since 2014. Expensive hotel/food prices could squeeze driving season into `10 weeks. The 8.4 million b/d level compares to 9.8-mil b/d in early April 2019.
Long way to go in order to make 10-15 ppm diesel for Europe and the U.S.
Long way to go in order to make 10-15 ppm diesel for Europe and the U.S.
Shell has completed its spring turnaround at the 404,000 b/d refinery in Pernis, Netherlands. Time to turn the autocorrect off.
Total export level of 84.658-million barrels in energy (mostly crude, propane, distillate and "other oils" last week was indeed a record, and it outpaced imports by 59.255-million barrels on the week. Good news for the trade balance, but this record will fall later this year.
US once again commands the stage as largest petroleum exporter in the world. Total crude and products exports topped 12-million b/d last week. That's 84-million barrels leaving the country during the week.
EIA mix: Crude draw of 6.4m bbl is a surprise. Gasoline demand of 8.423m/bd is quite poor and imports outstripped gasoline exports for first time this year. Keep an eye on U.S. bookends -NYHarbor and California where gasoline stocks dropped. Robust crude exports of 5.18m b/d.
Here's some light reading to celebrate Hump Day. opisnet.com/blog/us-gasoli…
Kirishinefteorgsintez, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Slavyansk, Yelabuga, Nizhnekamsk, Kuibyshev, Novoshakhtinsk, Voronezh, Lipetsk, & Smolensk. These are all cities where Ukranian drones have damaged refineries. (Also a reason why Russian Wheel of Fortune is quite difficult!).
Gonna go out on a limb and suggest that April 12 brought the first half 2024 high for WTI ($87.67/bbl) and RBOB ($2.8516/gal). Read why I see a second ascent in the middle of the third quarter: opisnet.com/blog/us-gasoli…
This year's driving season may look like a Bactrian camel. opisnet.com/blog/us-gasoli…
RBOB is off ~14cts/gal from April 12 peak but refinery gas cracks are still well above midcycle. OPIS numbers today: NY - $27.71/bbl; Gulf- $16.86/bbl; Midwest $16.70-$19.90/bbl; California - $42.00/bbl; Pacific NW - $38.80/bbl. Comparison to WTI in all but NY and Cal (vs. Brent)
US retail gasoline prices are a mixture of reflation and disinflation this morning: Reflation nabs CA +11%; ID +9%; NV +8.3%; OR +9.4%; UT +7.5%. Disinflation in AZ -9.4%; IA -5.8%; MN -8%; and NM -10.7%. Most other states are flat versus year ago.
One theory as to the cause of today's oil futures' sell-off; expiration of Brent options with lot of length. But again, I'll stress that every remaining day this month puts more risk on longs in RBOB.
Deja Vu all over again? OPIS - 4/16: In 20 Years of seasonal peaks for RBOB, the top is reached in March or April 50% of the time. The average peaking date? April 13. This year's Dec. 13 2023 low ($1.9673/gal) and high (April 12, 2024) is a perfect overlay of 1H 2023.
EIA: Distillate could be the sleeping giant as we move through very subdued demand weeks. National inventory decline of 2.8-million barrels was weighted toward PADD 1 where stocks fell 2.8-million bbl. Net exports still robust at more than 1.3-million b/d.
Other EIA comments: Refinery runs trail 2023 rate by 212,000 b/d but lots of plants restarting shortly. Net export amount for gasoline only 117,000 b/d last week. Plenty of warnings in what has been a runaway gasoline market.
Fairly neutral EIA report, but signs of demand destruction for gasoline are out there. Heavy spec position among longs can be dangerous as Kentucky Derby time approaches. Definitely some amber lights for US gasoline rally.
Oh my god... #natgas
Tracy (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl
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SMARTIE PANTS 🌈 HA.. @ShaneRe58948084
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826 Followers 351 Following Antitrust junkie Teach PT Community College Anti MAGA Arab Muslim
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Jens Nordvig 🇩🇰.. @jnordvig
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1K Followers 593 Following Wall Street Journal energy, now London; ex Bay Area, Bklyn and Tx
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342 Followers 759 Following Christ Lord Jesus is my savior, Petroleum Trader, Grain Farmer, Cattle Farmer. husband, father of triples.
Mike Katz @Mike_Katz
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Scott Lehtonen, CFA @IBD_SLehtonen
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Unreal video coming out of Nebraska. A tornado just spun across i-80 northeast of Lincoln. Footage by @BryceShelton01.
Pals pals as you know dad doesn't work Wednesdays as he has fybromalgia, we've been for a bimble and now we are going watch the snooker on dad's big bed 😍 we love our daddy, he continues to look after us really well and his mum really well 💓💝💞💗even though he has pain 💓💖
@TomKloza Wrong Bend, it's confusing. We used to live in Bend, then moved to Coos Bay/North Bend, so when we mention Bend, we have to wave our arm, over the Cascades ... While there, we got into craft beer. bendmagazine.com/central-oregon…
The new dog.. I already love her so much!
Morning pals 🐾 sun is shining and I’m off for me walk, Happy Sunday 🤗 hope you all have a lovely day 🥰
My little Keno is not well 🥹 He was seen at ER yesterday morning. They are guessing it’s a disc injury in his back. He has some meds and is on bed rest for a few weeks. Praying all my Angels are healing him fast. 🙏🏻✨
Morning pals, Happy Friday 🐾 hope everyone has a wonderful day 🤗🤗🤗
Who likes Jethro Tull? Not a typical rock band with a flute playing lead singer. An eclectic mixture of prog, rock & folk. Martin Barre is a hugely underrated guitar player. These are a few of my favourites. Also like War Child,Stormwatch & Minstrel In The Gallery.
Good evening gorgeous Pals and besties 💖 dad says because we were so good with Gramma earlier we can have extra CHEESEY TOMATO OATCAKES 🍅🧀🍅🧀🍅🧀 tmoro 💓 we love our dad he spoils us all the time 🥰💞 love Harry and Vivianne 💝💓💗💕💞🥰😍😍
Whilst out yesterday with Gramma she had a nasty fall, and they wouldn't send an ambulance because it wasn't life threatening 🙄🤬😡
Add another set of dog bowls to the mix….
The Cranberries performing "Zombie" in Paris, 1999. Her voice was truly unique and her powerful presence on stage was unforgettable. #TheCranberries
Here’s to never saying (or hearing) the words “Path of Totality” again. 🌙
This is the best thing i've seen today!!
Thank dog Monday is over ☔️ goodnight pals 💤💤
This is an absurd standard to apply to college sports, where players have only a few years to win a title. And it's not usually applied to college sports: in ESPN's 2020 ranking of the best players in college football history, only one player in the top 10 won a national title.
There isn't a GOAT in sports who doesn't have at least ONE championship. Bending the rules to try to include Caitlin Clark is disrespectful to several other great women's college basketball players we've seen over the years. She's still the best scorer ever and an all-time great.
Absolutely gorgeous westie alert 🐾😍
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