Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro
Posts ≠ Financial Advice ➢ Opinions expressed are solely my own Manhattan, NY Joined February 2022-
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15% of the total rise in Supercore PCE YoY was due to the stock market going up. - Supercore PCE YoY: +3.50% - Financial Services Contribution: +0.52% - Meaning 15% of the rise came from Financial Services ... Look at Financial Services PCE YoY vs S&P 500 YoY 👇
Possibility for near-term bounce? Vix is in backwardation (ie 1M Contract above 4M). Does this always mark exact lows? No. But it can get close 👇👇
if you know, you know
The CPI Used Cars and Trucks Index is now almost -16% off its All-Time High 👇
Fun Fact: The Nikkei 225 Has Outperformed the S&P 500 Since 2012 (Total Returns Including Dividends) 👇👇
How had the Market Implied # of cuts impacted stocks over the past year? - In 2023, stocks were bound to the monetary policy outlook - In 2024 they diverged, rallying as cuts were priced out - As of the past few weeks, stocks are again moving with the implied FF Rate. 👇👇
When fear/panic sets in and the Vix spikes, just remember this chart. 👇👇
Will be hopping on @BloombergTV at 5:30 AM. Same exact time the Starbucks and Dunkin open around here.
Stocks Can Go Down I take a look at how even the best years have some rough patches. '24 isn't going to be any different. carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…
Fun lunch in NYC with some great friends. @FrankCappelleri @mattcerminaro @_JoshSchafer @calebsilver @sonusvarghese @JayWoods3
Thinking about life on the day my mother would have turned 70 years old. theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/04/09/eve…
Worse case for CPI tomorrow is: - Soft print and stocks fall - When stocks fall on good news, that causes concern Best case for CPI tomorrow is: - Hot print and stocks rally - When stocks can rally on bad news, that's usually bullish We'll see🤷♂️
The stock market and interest rates visualized. - 2022: Yields ↗️ Stocks ↘️ - 2023: Mixed - 2024: Yields ↗️ Stocks ↗️ Check it out 👇👇
Very cool chart from @M_McDonough 👇
Very cool chart from @M_McDonough 👇
The Covid Crash looks eerily similar to the 1987 crash in terms of speed & magnitude The biggest difference is the rally from the lows is even stronger now 4+ years out Some thoughts on that & other stuff here: awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/04/four-t…
Everything’s Going to Change theirrelevantinvestor.com/2024/04/05/eve…
Officially a Chartered Market Technician®! Big thanks to the @CMTAssociation and my sponsors @allstarcharts @acardenasfx @IvanScherman credly.com/badges/b845709…
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To clear the palate after learning Kristi Noem kills dogs, I'm posting a picture of our adorable Teddy and Cody (each named after bears) plus their pal Joey Feel free to do the same.
To clear the palate after learning Kristi Noem kills dogs, I'm posting a picture of our adorable Odd Couple, 70lb. Milo (L) and his much older brother, 10lb Cooper (R). Feel free to do the same.
Great chart from @AriWald this AM, "Investors Intelligence reported their Bull/Bear ratio dropped to 2.1 from 3.9 w/ bullishness sliding to 46.2% from 56.5%. Prior 5 occurrences of bulls falling at least 10% in a week include Oct 1987, Nov 1991, March 2008, Jan 2010 & Feb 2018"
Cathie Wood erased approximately as much investor capital as the GDP of Moldova. Legend.
“By the end of last year, ARK funds had destroyed more wealth than any other asset manager over the previous decade, losing investors a collective $14.3 billion, according to Morningstar.” stocks.apple.com/An-5UFEz9SSq0E…
@mattcerminaro Matt I think you are right. @McClellanOsc seems to imply the same.
Interesting chart on $SPX vs. $VIX...
Possibility for near-term bounce? Vix is in backwardation (ie 1M Contract above 4M). Does this always mark exact lows? No. But it can get close 👇👇
Why the market is having “digestion” problems amid Q1 earnings season: finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-s…
Mega cap companies don’t care about interest rates on debt. They are cash rich companies.
The Magnificent 7 companies now hold a record $300 billion in cash. Since 2022, the Magnificent 7's free cash flow has jumped by a whopping 45%. Since 2019, these tech giants have more than doubled their cash balances. To put this in perspective, the Magnificent 7 companies'…
Big declines in the market tend to occur from a state of backwardation. So while it’s true that the odds of a near-term bounce increase so do the odds of a left tail event. Tricky!
Possibility for near-term bounce? Vix is in backwardation (ie 1M Contract above 4M). Does this always mark exact lows? No. But it can get close 👇👇
I don't use this as a "trading signal" per se. BUT it can be a highly useful "alert" for short-term traders IMO.
Possibility for near-term bounce? Vix is in backwardation (ie 1M Contract above 4M). Does this always mark exact lows? No. But it can get close 👇👇
React immediately to market-moving news and trade when it’s convenient for you. Open an account today!
To put things into perspective: Fewer than 30% of S&P 500 members trading above the 50-day moving average.
Driving home from Dune 2 blasting this in complete silence youtube.com/watch?v=zzYPIu…
🤔🤔
Possibility for near-term bounce? Vix is in backwardation (ie 1M Contract above 4M). Does this always mark exact lows? No. But it can get close 👇👇
@Lawrence_Sprung @RyanDetrick @CarsonResearch @YahooFinance 🙏 Thanks, Larry
@RyanDetrick @sonusvarghese @CarsonResearch @YahooFinance It is awesome to see Sonu on Yahoo Finance!
Great job by @sonusvarghese of the @CarsonResearch team on @YahooFinance this AM! This was his first hit on camera, but you'd never know it. 👏👏👏
Carson Group global macro strategist @sonusvarghese on positioning your portfolio amid mounting geopolitical tensions:
Trends for United States
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