Caleb Franzen @CalebFranzen
Analyst. cubicanalytics.substack.com/p/re-inflation… New resesrch: Joined June 2020-
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Bears look away. The S&P 500 $SPX is making a series of higher lows & higher highs on a short-term basis, shown using 1hr candles in the chart below. Constructive behavior. Bulls need a transition from "constructive" to "outright bullish". Only +3.1% away from ATH's.
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Alright fam… It’s my birthday weekend 📈 After 3 consecutive years of publishing new research every single weekend, I’m taking my first weekend off. Back to the regularly scheduled programming of Cubic Analytics next week! Love you all 🧡
Japanese investors only need #Bitcoin to gain +10% to make new all-time highs.
lol they still don't get it.
I hate annualizing economic data. Instead, I think it's much more appropriate to focus on YoY results because it actually tells us what HAS taken place instead of ASSUMING that quarterly growth will continue for three more quarters. Q1 2024 real GDP +3.0% YoY, down from +3.1%.
Growth softer. Inflation hotter. Technically, we shouldn't be surprised by the latter given that we saw higher than expected inflation results throughout Q1'24. It's the miss in real GDP that's a surprise. Nonetheless, +1.6% real growth (annualized) is resilient & dynamic.
As of yesterday, Bitcoin's short-term holder realized price (STHRP) is $59,530. While we've seen invalidations of short-term structure & dynamic levels (200MA cloud on 4hr candles), those deteriorations simply make me defensive. If #BTC falls below STHRP, then I'll get bearish.
Net inflows are simply a product of price, which is in itself a product of supply and demand. It's a recursive dynamic, where demand pushes price higher which pushes demand even higher. The opposite is also true. As demand wanes, price falls, and demand falls further.
Net inflows are simply a product of price, which is in itself a product of supply and demand. It's a recursive dynamic, where demand pushes price higher which pushes demand even higher. The opposite is also true. As demand wanes, price falls, and demand falls further.
The biggest concern for #Bitcoin right now is that the bullish 4hr trend has been completely invalidated & shifted to a bearish dynamic. Specifically, the 200 moving average cloud (4hr) is acting as resistance. This is also happening for $TOTAL.3 Need to reclaim like Feb.'24.
The breakdown has continued, which is surprising given the broad-based selloff.
The breakdown has continued, which is surprising given the broad-based selloff. https://t.co/QHZMao1X02
The 5-year breakeven inflation rate #T5YIE retested the Q4'23 highs & has moved a bit lower in the past week. The Federal Reserve has been pleased that inflation expectations remain "well-anchored", but they would be even happier if breakevens can fall below 2%. Currently 2.4%.
I've been saying it for the past two weeks, but this market environment for crypto has been so damn difficult because we continue to see constructive behavior fade & deteriorate. Some of that was caused by geopolitics. Some of it was caused by normal market dynamics, which have…
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