CRE Analyst @CREanalyst1
The commercial real estate industry’s #1 provider of real-world training. Commercial Real Estate and other investing content. creanalyst.com Joined March 2020-
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Multiple choice: What's next for Tides Equities? (A) Foreclosures (B) Lawsuits (C) Bankruptcy (D) Liquidation (E) Recapitalization (F) All of the above (G) Other ---- Revisiting a 2024 prediction ---- Apartment syndicators will face the music Nearly $70 billion of multifamily…
Is this the most damning chart we've ever made? ---- A common problem ---- Higher interest rates: ...cheapen returns. ...make investors need to get paid more for each risk profile. ...which puts downward pressure on values in the short run. This dynamic has affected…
Trigger warning: Cap rates are bullsh*t A few weeks ago, Blackstone announced its planned acquisition of a $10 billion apartment REIT (AIRC). The market's reactions generally fell into two camps: Camp 1: 6% cap! 50% lower values vs. a few years ago. Camp 2: 5% cap! 25% lower…
The CRE hangover... At first glance, these two charts don't seem to have a meaningful connection. Chart 1: The distribution of homeowners with fixed-rate mortgages. Chart 2: The distribution of annual commercial property sales volumes. ...but, unfortunately, we think they…
The birth of dry powder… Fund sponsor: “We generate 18% returns for investors.” Fund investor: “Sounds great. Here’s my money.” Press release: “We raised more money than ever before.” Seller: “I’m not selling at a price less than a 5.5% cap.” Lender: “I can’t lend you…
What do you think when you see this chart? A. Distress is low. Everything's fine. B. Watch out. Huge spike ahead. C. Hunker down. Slow burn. Very interesting analysis by @CoStarGroup
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Surely, the pending "maturity wall" is the biggest story in commercial real estate. No question, mortgage credit quality has eroded and default rates will continue picking up as the high interest rate dominos fall. ...but…
“You don’t pay taxes. They take taxes.” Chris Rock Is Mark Cuban’s $276mm tax bill exciting or depressing?
“Sometimes the past catches up with you, no matter how fast you run.” We often think about Treasury yields from a top down perspective, but government bills and bonds are subject to the same gravity that applies to every other asset: Supply and demand. With the tabs for…
7 messages from Blackstone’s announced acquisition of AIRC for the rest of the market… 1. You're asleep at the wheel Thanks for staying on the sidelines and plowing into credit. I know you think debt offers equity-like returns, but there's not much upside in that underwriting,…
Young couple: “We want to own a home.” Your response: “___________” A) Make more money. B) Get money from your parents. C) Move somewhere cheaper. D) Renting isn’t a bad option. What do you tell them?
We made it to the Final Four! Which two cities should move on to the CRE championship? What is the best market for CRE investment in 2024?
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58 Followers 120 Following Seattle based CRE Developer mainly focused on retail and industrial.@CREanalyst1 Seller on any SPAC. That’s primarily a VC garbage dumping tool. This short report was quite enlightening last year. bleeckerstreetresearch.com/research/smrt
@CREanalyst1 18,000,000 sf of office space?!?! That is absolutely insane!!!
Seeing the Will Arnett ads on TV for Dicks dot com (Dicks Sporting Goods) reminds me of a time in 2005 when I needed to find a sporting goods store. In middle of office of job I just started, I pulled up Dicks dot com. And back then that website was something different. 😂
@CREanalyst1 I know Austin has a lot also… but Nashville is booming. Heard from local developers that they can’t keep up with population growth. Visit Nashville - it’s going through a renaissance.
With the Kansas City Royals downtown stadium plans looking like they will fall through, Nashville will be the top candidate (possibly Charlotte). If you want a bold data driven bet on big appreciation - then East Bank, Nashville is it. - 8,500 Oracle jobs coming (mega campus) -…
@CREanalyst1 One is subject to sea water rise and insane insurance prices, the other is in the ring of fire and struggling massively with homelessness. Both have immediate red flags but the Pacific Northwest is a massively underrated part of North America, which makes me lean towards Seattle.
Recent career advice: (1) don't be afraid to go risk-on early: take the job, move to the new city, transfer departments, go somewhere small, etc. (2) don't rush into doing your own deal. If you do, it cannot just be to learn. It will be a huge strain on your time Thoughts?
“What is agency financing?”
I don’t understand why multifamily sells at a 5cap & flex sells at an 8cap Local tenants regardless The flex tenant is responsible for the maintenance Multi is being built everywhere Flex isn’t being built Would you rather deal with a family or a business owner?
H/t to @CREanalyst1 for doing the heavy lifting here, as much as I knew it was an anomaly I was too lazy to answer “why” Looks like reversion to mean is more or less now, exactly as I had suggested. Cc: @viceroyresearch @MacroEdgeRes
I had to check the numbers a few times, but they seem legit. Now this is just the delinquency rate that Freddie Mac is experiencing but half of the mortgage debt outstanding in this category are from the agencies...
Doesn't seem that bad, tbh
"nar·ra·tive: a way of presenting or understanding a situation or series of events that reflects and promotes a particular point of view or set of values" ---- 2024's prevailing narrative ---- It's almost as if every real estate pundit just discovered: That mortgage rates…
@clay_courson @CREanalyst1 Knowing how to build a model is great & all, but not understanding underlying concepts is a deficiency.
@ClarenceWongCRE @CREanalyst1 Buddy has his own model but does not know what a cap rate is
@CREanalyst1 Oh my…this is… unfortunately more common than people realize with recent graduates even from real estate programs
Good color.
10 takeaways from 4Q23 brokerage earnings calls... Earnings calls are boring. Brokerage earnings calls are even more boring. ...until markets go to sh*t. Then (and only then?) seemingly innocuous discussions with big brokerage CEOs take on new life. JLL wrapped up the 2023…
Always a good follow
10 takeaways from 4Q23 brokerage earnings calls... Earnings calls are boring. Brokerage earnings calls are even more boring. ...until markets go to sh*t. Then (and only then?) seemingly innocuous discussions with big brokerage CEOs take on new life. JLL wrapped up the 2023…
@CREanalyst1 have some ideas for you but can't send a DM
@thomassfoley @CREanalyst1 ODCE is O/W office relative to both listed REITs and interval vehicles. That allocation will obviously come down (one way or another!) and open-end vehicles may again find relevance
Great post from @CREanalyst1. Do what’s asked & figure out as much as you can on your own. See🧵 for answers. Background on analyst (from employer): -- Ivy League edu -- Related to big investor in regional firm -- Proved there is such a thing as a dumb question
Interesting anecdote from Arbor CEO in latest earnings call-- noting that some multifamily borrowers are choosing to wait to negotiate until after defaulting. H/T to @CREanalyst1
@AndyPariPassu @CREanalyst1 ? If I pick something up from them I certainly will. The earnings and transcript are public info.
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