Global_Macro @Marcomadness2
Macro Strategist, Senior Portfolio Manager, Author and Contributor. Head of Fixed Income at NewEdge Wealth, Opinions are my own amazon.com/End-Risk-Free-… New York Joined April 2020-
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The deficit could become a persistent problem as the rollover risk is high with T-bills as a percentage of debt above the threshold
Going into the Treasury refunding, more than $3 trillion of the maturity wall must be rolled over by end of the June
PMI Input prices are (re)-accelerating in Europe. This makes the case for an ECB rate cut by June less likely
The 2Y yield is discounting the probability of a hike later this year if inflation goes in the wrong direction @bsurveillance @lisaabramowicz1 @annmarie @FerroTV
The S&P 500 is not the most "over-concentrated" index @StrategasRP
In fixed-income, the mantra is "stronger for longer." Floating-rate bonds are a hedge against restrictive monetary policy, strongly outperforming longer-duration assets
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
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Good morning from Pablo and his spring garden.
@Marcomadness2 Meanwhile.... BI minutes version shows Fed sentiment neutral/on hold...
Howard Stern thanks @POTUS for making a difference.
Colin, you did a hell of a job hosting this year's White House Correspondents Dinner. I still think Scarlett has you beat for funniest in the family, but last night I'll bet you made her proud.
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What will the Fed likely do between now and the end of the year? @Marcomadness2 weighs in with @NPetallides:
A weedy, potential explanation about the hotter than expect ed core PCE inflation implied by the gdp print today: pce deflator weights uses a Fisher Ideal index formula, vs cpi uses Laspeyres weighting. Why does that matter? So the PCE inflation uses moving weights, so if the…
Catch up on Thursday's show, where Enzio von Pfeil and Ben Emons discuss Blinken in China with James Ross. Greg Van of Endowus talks on explaining money to kids, plus Barry Wood dives into whether we'll really see TikTok being sold off in the US. rthk.hk/radio/radio3/p…
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Any thoughts on this @CliffordAsness ? 🙏
@Marcomadness2 uhhh lol this doesnt look like they are tracking each other at all. Hope this is sarcastic.
..because base effects have subsided?
@Marcomadness2 @StrategasRP good information. thanks. Which is the weakest index? I think nikkei 225
@Marcomadness2 I read this as “as volatility in bonds and equities has come down, we have added more leverage to our bond and equity positions”. Is that correct?
Appreciate the shoutout @jimcramer @MadMoneyOnCNBC 🙌🏾🙌🏾🙌🏾 As @SnoopDogg says: “I’m watching from afar but I’m oh so near” #Philly #London 🇬🇧 🇬🇧🇬🇧
@Marcomadness2 For the past three years, floaters have outperformed because their duration is essentially zero. That said, we are not at a point where investing in fixed rates might make sense. The distribution of interest rate outcomes is now reasonably balanced. As floaters performed well…