Curve Advisor @CurveAdvisor
Ex-JPM interest rate prop trader, now trading from home in sunny Texas. STIRed not shaken. My opinions only. Not investment advice. curveadvisor.substack.com Joined February 2016-
Tweets2K
-
Followers1K
-
Following836
-
Likes9K
Thanks for your video on Thursday. That cause an "a-ha moment" on the War conclusion. I wrote about this over the weekend, but we probably made up the 20mbd shortfall already, even without a deal. Oil flowing again would crush Iran's main leverage and that is why they have (and will continue to be) amenable to a deal. The prediction markets have a 63% chance that Hormuz flows returns to 50% by the end of July. While this is not a "return to pre-conflict traffic", that should be more than enough to continue to put downward pressure on oil.
I wrote about this over the weekend, but we may already have made up the 20mbd shortfall already, without a deal. The prediction markets have a 63% chance that Hormuz flows returns to 50% by the end of July. While this is not a "return to pre-conflict traffic", that should be more than enough to get all the oil benefits.
Thanks to @javierblas for the framework for spark. Intro this week: I think I’ve done a pretty good job of analyzing the positioning, dynamics and risks of the Iran War the past few months. Of course, that doesn’t lead to a conclusion about the outcome… until now. I’ve recently had two “a-ha moments” when it comes to the War. The first was the “speculation” that we were offering a $300B reconstruction fund, which could bring the total package for Iran to over a trillion dollars. Unless a complete unfreezing of funds and/or sanctions relief are not on the table, that is an enormous payday for Iran. That tells me Trump is motivated. The second is the recent revelation that we have “secretly” been escorting ships though the Hormuz. I previously discussed the importance of escorts in past issues. Iran is losing control of the Hormuz and their leverage, and so they are also motivated. While we are only discussing the signing of an MOU (and not the full deal), I will discuss why I think even without a deal, just the reopening of the Strait solves a majority of our problems.
Thanks for this. This week, I wrote about an "a-ha moment" I had related to why the two sides finally agreed, and I think it's the fact that if you add up all of the net effects, we get those factors summing to well over 20mbd that we were missing from the blockade - especially in light of Wright claiming a 7mbd escort flow. Even if you discount this number, I think we are still comfortably over 20mbd in flows. I would love to get a contrary view. @Chigirl @joshyoung
War A-ha Moment, by @CurveAdvisor open.substack.com/pub/curveadvis…
@HuXijin_GT Yes. It would be nice if you could watch the Chinese national team compete in the World Cup. Oh wait... you didn't make it. 🤣 I assume they will have more "day games" for you on the weekends.
you would need to have a view that the 33bps of hikes are "mispriced" to think that the carry on the front of the curve matters. I don't have a strong enough view, given that the Fed will most likely go to a neutral bias and the next couple (at least) of inflation prints will be elevated.
@KobeissiLetter "It's an honor to meet you. Too bad your father, wife and kids died like dogs."
This *2021* Waller speech makes for interesting reading today. At the time, Fed doves had been pointing to trimmed mean measures of inflation to argue against overreacting to spot inflation. Waller's point was that serially excluding 'one-off' outliers assumes no new one-offs take their place—a fallacy that, in hindsight, anticipated how the transitory framing failed. "The moral of this little example is that one needs to be careful when selectively ignoring data series—be it used car prices, food and energy prices, or household surveys of inflation expectations. All of these series convey important information about the evolution of inflation, and one should exhibit caution in dismissing data as outliers. We must keep our eyes open to inflationary pressures, wherever they come from, with consistency and rigor and stand ready to adjust policy if we conclude that such a change is warranted." federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…
@Fullcarry you would expect some flattening (negative spreads) further out the curve, since deferred eases will be expected, regardless of whether the Fed hikes in the next 12 months.
Intro this week: I am flabbergasted that Trump is considering a $300B reconstruction fund. Gemini says this is ON TOP OF sanctions relief (worth a $500++billion), and unfreezing their funds (worth $100B)? So we are offering a package worth a TRILLION dollars (or more)?!? That is 3+ times Iran’s prewar annual GDP. Seriously – WORST. NEGOTIATOR. EVER! How do you get to that scenario, when walking away costs nothing, resumes the flow of oil and lowers oil prices? Given the revelation that Trump is this stupid and desperate, we are presented with several more “outs” that Trump has with Iran.
More Outs, by @CurveAdvisor open.substack.com/pub/curveadvis…
INSTEAD OF WATCHING AN HOUR OF NETFLIX TONIGHT. This 60-minute Cambridge lecture by Demis Hassabis will teach you more about the future of AI than most people will learn in the next 5 years. Bookmark it and give it an hour, no matter what.
Excerpt this week: “It’s déjà vu all over again.” This is about where we were a month ago, before Trump opened his yapper, walked back all of our promises and caused a further spike in oil. We look to a be on the precipice of a “major deal”… on a 1-page MOU, just so we can actually start talking about the details of the deal. Yogi Berra also said, “The hardest thing is to get started, but the hardest thing is to finish.” Over the past week, oil was lower on deal optimism, but fixed income (in the short end) was lower. Given that these two have been negatively correlated for most of the war, this is an unusual development. The answer is a change in the perceived Fed reaction function this past week. I discuss this and how I assign probability distributions to interest rates during this war.
Trading Rates in this War, by @CurveAdvisor open.substack.com/pub/curveadvis…
Excerpt this week: In poker, when you are behind on a hand, the cards left to be played that can still give you the best hand are called “outs.” My central view on the War is that the impasse lasts longer than shorter. However, what makes the current War difficult to trade is that Trump has the power to quickly change from the status quo – for the better (towards a deal) or worse (escalation). In particular, he has a number of outs to get out of the current Iran mess. And at least one of the outs can be implemented at any time, which makes aggressive positioning challenging. But first the week in news: · Rubio said the “US doesn’t need China’s help” [with Iran] after the first day of the China summit. Let’s try a hand-reading (aka critical thinking) exercise. What is most likely to have elicited such a comment from Rubio? 1) The US didn’t ask China for assistance regarding Iran, since everything is under control and we don’t need their help (as stated). But somehow China mentioned they would stop sending weapons to Iran and stated that they opposed tolls on the Hormuz. 2) China offered to give naval, logistical and intermediary assistance, but we declined, since we didn’t need China’s help (as stated). 3) We asked for help and Xi said, “xiongdi, ni zhen can” (Translation: “it sucks to be you, bro”) and offered us nothing. That’s right! Only the last one makes sense, unless you are still wearing the MAGA hat that is two sizes too small.
The founder of Renaissance Technologies - the hedge fund that makes 66% a year, runs the most secretive trading floor on Earth, and has never accepted outside money - once stood in front of 500 mathematicians and explained exactly how he did it. Jim Simons. The Einstein Lecture. American Mathematical Society. 1 hour 20 minutes.They left it on a small university channel. Almost nobody knows it exists. No one's talking about it. Bookmark it before they do. Then read the article below.
Why is Trump is bringing all these CEOs? Is the intent to swap tariff relief for trade deals? I have no idea why China would give us anything (deals) without us giving them something in return, and we don't have much to give. Is Trump expecting China to give us tribute?
PiQ @PiQSuite
132K Followers 8K Following News | Insight | Opinion • Home → https://t.co/rhkrvyDKwt • Platform → https://t.co/VmD0voJVbf • Stack → https://t.co/yddlMO8wcZ • Proud Supporters of @PenybontFC_
Rishi Mishra @aRishisays
20K Followers 447 Following macro, money and memes| ex rates strategist | current gardener | cheap tricks & cheesy one-liners | gainful employment is a bourgeois pursuit
𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜�... @EffMktHype
47K Followers 1K Following Macro musings not financial advice. If bonds are my bread & butter, stocks & fx are the ice cream. Everyone loves ice-cream bread once they try it.
Conks @conksresearch
155K Followers 2K Following Male. Pleb. STIR, funding markets, & monetary mechanics. Subscribe at https://t.co/k70w2dSLNj for serious works. Pro: https://t.co/LbOp49nkfe. Merch: https://t.co/iRy6H3x2OJ
phyron @parrmenidies
5K Followers 6K Following
TOL @t11mmo
5K Followers 430 Following Market commentary and opinions only. Not financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold assets. Always do your own research.
Macro “KING LEEROY�... @MacroTactical
25K Followers 2K Following Elite Operator || markets are just positions
Alex Gurevich @agurevich23
46K Followers 410 Following CIO, HonTe Investments. Ran global macro at JPM. Bestselling author of The Trades of March 2020 and The Next Perfect Trade. https://t.co/86UjMH0ujq
Brent aka Blacklion @BlacklionCTA
29K Followers 2K Following Christian, Macro, Independent Derivatives, Recovering USN Aviator (A4, F14), USAF PEP F16, 2A, Energy, Fedwatch, Pure Blood, C02 isn't pollution. not advice
Rishu Kumar Sahu @RishuKumar29015
3 Followers 136 Following
Emmamarie 🤍 @21emma372
11 Followers 921 Following professional feeler & playlist addict 🎧 follow back
Francis Reys @ReysFrancis
86 Followers 1K Following
إسماعيل عبد... @MarketTelescope
119 Followers 4K Following متداول محترف ومحلل اقتصادي بأسواق الأوبشنز والأسهم الأمريكية والعملات Professional Trader & Investment Analyst واتساب: 00201117255577 https://t.co/n9zDkNv7pG
Chester Beavis @Chester_Beavis
32 Followers 456 Following
cbyrdtrade @cbyrdtrade63069
54 Followers 474 Following
z @zw1000000
5 Followers 56 Following
Cammysue 🌻 @HagermanKelly
41 Followers 1K Following cute but i overthink everything 🥺 100% follow back
Chartist @diamondsforex
12K Followers 7K Following 'If you are persistent you will get it. If you are consistent, you will keep it.' Not a signal service. RT s are not endorsements. #Likes just my reminder.
Adrien Mammino @adrien_mammino
19 Followers 83 Following
Robert Black @insurance_news_
317 Followers 418 Following Former sell-side insurance/spec fin analyst, now wealth management PM. Commentary on insurance, economics, finance, and sometimes just...commentary.
a @lprmw42
0 Followers 293 Following
V @valentinoarg97
268 Followers 1K Following “No man escapes When freedom fails, The best men rot in filthy jails; And they who cried: “Appease, Appease!” Are hanged by men they tried to please.”
harribot @ye_yaps
46 Followers 393 Following
Gan Qiu @gqny678
23 Followers 137 Following
traderdjinn @traderdjinn
119 Followers 3K Following
Aditya Goel @goel_adity22181
0 Followers 25 Following
Ruihan Xia @RaymondXia10
7 Followers 53 Following
Rate Arc @rate_arc_2023
6 Followers 37 Following
Eoin Barrett @EoinBarrett12
44 Followers 316 Following
Saaransh @Saarans64340083
11 Followers 246 Following
Alpha @Alpha9986727997
25 Followers 437 Following
Shantanu Banerjee @shantanuatx
355 Followers 4K Following Markets trading desk staff @NewYorkFed Prior @USTreasury | @JPMorgan Chase Institute | @federalreserve alum
apd @auphucdup
70 Followers 3K Following
Richard Gordon @richnmaureen
16 Followers 139 Following
SR1-F @RatesNacho
26 Followers 288 Following Rates, FX, Global Equity & Metals. 🏪 Reader of businesses. Runner by choice. 💨 Cricket always.
Otto Unlocks @OttoUnlocks
297 Followers 2K Following
Jason Kong @jkong1111
4 Followers 58 Following
Wen @Wen17817223
75 Followers 2K Following
Shannon podevin @shannon_podevin
17 Followers 413 Following
RISHI MEHTA @_Rishimehta1501
2 Followers 67 Following
vin @vinj0s
21 Followers 95 Following
ABR @TheOnlyABR
369 Followers 390 Following Founder & Owner @Team_TyrNE / General Manager @AcuityStudios / Graphic Designer / Esports Enthusiast
Alf @MacroAlf
466K Followers 353 Following Founder of Palinuro Capital | Founder of The Macro Compass: Institutional Macro Research
Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry
1.9M Followers 33 Following Official X account for Michael Burry, MD, called "Cassandra" by Warren Buffett. Now on Substack with the full story.
Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
653K Followers 1K Following Macro investment research at https://t.co/hQqAza8GGP Our total return index is at https://t.co/vta9eqevnU The ETF WTBN tracks our Index. biancoresearch.eth
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
255K Followers 789 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFGM, $HFEQ, $HFMF, $HFND | Fmr @Bridgewater IC | One of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments not investment advice
Andy Constan @dampedspring
384K Followers 420 Following https://t.co/SgaSuGdrox macro & beta @2Graybeards for beta. Both for investor education, Brevan Howard, Bridgewater, Salomon, Dad of 4. Go Penn, No tweet is advice
Ed Bradford @Fullcarry
54K Followers 453 Following US government bond trader since '93 with the usual stints along the way at primary dealers and HFs. Now on my own. Pseudonym
PiQ @PiQSuite
132K Followers 8K Following News | Insight | Opinion • Home → https://t.co/rhkrvyDKwt • Platform → https://t.co/VmD0voJVbf • Stack → https://t.co/yddlMO8wcZ • Proud Supporters of @PenybontFC_
Tracy Shuchart (𝒞�... @chigrl
360K Followers 978 Following Senior Economist at NinjaTrader Live/NinjaTrader Group LLC. CEO/Founder Hilltower Resource Advisors LLC. @HilltowerRA Substack: Renegade Resources
Andreas Steno Larsen @AndreasSteno
292K Followers 2K Following If you cannot show it in a meme, then it is not true.. Macro and hunting 5-10x equity cases @RealVision 🍾 Also founder of https://t.co/XDcwDI88kQ
Rishi Mishra @aRishisays
20K Followers 447 Following macro, money and memes| ex rates strategist | current gardener | cheap tricks & cheesy one-liners | gainful employment is a bourgeois pursuit
𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜�... @EffMktHype
47K Followers 1K Following Macro musings not financial advice. If bonds are my bread & butter, stocks & fx are the ice cream. Everyone loves ice-cream bread once they try it.
Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets
267K Followers 1K Following Entrepreneur and technologist with a passion for startups and markets. Fascinated by AI, automation and cybersecurity. Knowledge is our most valuable asset.
Michael Green @profplum99
240K Followers 1K Following Chief Strategist Simplify Asset Management | PM of top ranked high yield ETF, $CDX. Not investment advice
Doomberg @DoombergT
243K Followers 1K Following Account no longer active, as explained here: https://t.co/eS3eVGe4jE All other green chickens are impostors. DMs checked infrequently.
Conks @conksresearch
155K Followers 2K Following Male. Pleb. STIR, funding markets, & monetary mechanics. Subscribe at https://t.co/k70w2dSLNj for serious works. Pro: https://t.co/LbOp49nkfe. Merch: https://t.co/iRy6H3x2OJ
phyron @parrmenidies
5K Followers 6K Following
TOL @t11mmo
5K Followers 430 Following Market commentary and opinions only. Not financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold assets. Always do your own research.
Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch
129K Followers 284 Following The economy moves in a sequence. Read it before consensus does.
Danielle DiMartino Bo... @DiMartinoBooth
335K Followers 453 Following CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research LLC, Fmr Federal Reserve insider, Economist #FedUp https://t.co/HD8LtvuXJ8, https://t.co/QpwfxheMSJ
Javier Blas @JavierBlas
392K Followers 1K Following Energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg. Co-author of the 'The World for Sale' Any views expressed are my own. [email protected]
Victoria Guida @vtg2
25K Followers 2K Following Economics correspondent and columnist for @politico. Retweet ≠ endorse. Email: [email protected] Signal: vguida.28
Amjad Taha أمجد �... @amjadt25
682K Followers 2K Following Emirati Expert in Strategic and Political Affairs (Middle East) | Author | Analyst and Researcher | Bu Zayed| Posts reflect my views only.
Joumanna Nasr Bercetc... @JoumannaTV
41K Followers 2K Following Anchor of Bloomberg Horizons Mideast & Africa. Chief Mideast Correspondent @bloombergtv . On maternity leave now.
U.S. Central Command @CENTCOM
1.6M Followers 121 Following The official account of U.S. Central Command.
Windward @WindwardAI
8K Followers 909 Following Windward’s Maritime AI™ delivers foresight & clarity for mission success. Follow for actionable maritime insights and strategic intelligence. ⚓️
Unfiltered @quotesdaily100
27K Followers 928 Following Words that motivate, heal, and guide you forward.
Mohammad Ghaderi | م... @ghaderi62
7K Followers 1K Following Journalist | Analyst | Researcher in the fields of National Security, Geopolitics, Hybrid Warfare, Human Rights International Relations, Terrorism & Extremism |
Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi
889K Followers 12 Following Foreign Minister, Islamic Republic of Iran • Telegram: https://t.co/SvqW58m8er • Instagram: @araghchi
محمدباقر قا... @mb_ghalibaf
656K Followers 5 Following سرباز امام شهید انقلاب | Speaker of Islamic Republic of Iran’s Parliament
The Atlantic @TheAtlantic
1.9M Followers 1K Following Exploring the American idea through ambitious, essential reporting and storytelling. Of no party or clique since 1857. https://t.co/uHeZCz8ahz
Dr. Eli David @DrEliDavid
856K Followers 6K Following AI Researcher, Lecturer, Entrepreneur & Investor | 4x Founder | Top 100 Most Influential 𝕏 Accounts | All opinions are my own.
David Sacks @DavidSacks
1.6M Followers 3K Following Tech founder & investor @Craft_Ventures @theallinpod. Co-Chair, President’s Council of Advisers on Science & Technology.
Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji
246K Followers 499 Following Woodworker. Everything Energy Daily Energy Report: https://t.co/upw1loHMzB Weekly: https://t.co/LfUHIpY0M2 https://t.co/oCC6irfYkD
Mayor Zohran Kwame Ma... @NYCMayor
2.3M Followers 1K Following Fighting every day to deliver a city that working New Yorkers can actually afford. Mayor of New York City.
Emmett Voss @Emmett_Voss
13K Followers 25 Following PM at @Meta. Prev Microsoft. Opinions are my own
The All-In Podcast @theallinpod
577K Followers 8 Following @chamath, @jason, @davidsacks, and @friedberg cover all things economic, tech, political, social, and poker.
James Chanos @RealJimChanos
63K Followers 474 Following
Martha Gimbel @marthagimbel
20K Followers 1K Following Executive director @the_budget_lab, former @whitehousecea, @indeed, @jecdems, @USDOL, among others. Personal opinions.
Ann Berry @AnnBerry_NYC
8K Followers 632 Following Founder, GP @ Threadneedle | On TV, on markets | Board @rodanfieldshq @allurebeautymfg | Host @brewmarkets @afterearnings | POV my own & not investment advice
U.S. Secret Service @SecretService
1.6M Followers 86 Following The Secret Service is mandated by Congress to carry out an integrated mission of protection and criminal investigations.
Treasury Secretary Sc... @SecScottBessent
899K Followers 25 Following 79th United States Secretary of the Treasury
Steve Inskeep @NPRinskeep
329K Followers 4K Following Still on the air @NPR. Author of Differ We Must, a NY Times bestseller. https://t.co/l9DXNpdKdO
Las Vegas Locally �... @LasVegasLocally
461K Followers 7K Following Interesting, strange & useful stuff from the Vegas Valley — DTLV to Henderson to The Strip to the desert. ♠️ [email protected]
Daniel Negreanu @RealKidPoker
562K Followers 2K Following 🌱 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇷🇴 @GGPoker Ambassador Join me @ https://t.co/2RtrnF87ka My YouTube channel here: https://t.co/ZRpUcQigk2
Andrew Neeme @andrewneeme
38K Followers 489 Following
Danielle Andersen @dmoongirl
20K Followers 654 Following Family gal & pro poker player. The sad chick in ‘Bet Raise Fold.’ Scotch & nap enthusiast. MN roots Vegas branches.
Bart Hanson @BartHanson
32K Followers 444 Following Owner of @CrushlivePoker. Frequent commentator for high stakes cash games on Hustler Casino Live! 6 time @WSOP final tablist. Former umpire.
Jamie Kerstetter @JamieKerstetter
41K Followers 2K Following 📺 Productions @WPT, poker player/commentator, animal lover
Phil Galfond @PhilGalfond
153K Followers 1K Following Pro poker player, coach, founder of @RunItOnce and https://t.co/927KDhVvo3 coaching. Playing on @BetRiversPoker!
Allen Kessler @AllenKessler
66K Followers 5K Following Allen Kessler aka The Chainsaw. I travel the tournament circuit playing WPT, WSOP, HPT and MSPT events. 2013 @hptpoker player of the year.
Marle Spragg @MarleSpragg
52K Followers 866 Following poker player / content creator for @pokerstars
John Kim @NicolakPoker
2K Followers 1K Following Christian professional poker player, Las Vegas-based
Scott Lincicome @scottlincicome
106K Followers 1K Following VP @CatoInstitute (econ/trade), adjunct @DukeLaw, columnist @TheDispatch & @Bloomberg. CH❤️RTS. You didn't read the article, did you? Go @Rangers.
David Woo Unbound @Davidwoounbound
11K Followers 26 Following Independent provider of macro research and investment strategy. We offer institutional and retail services. Our only goal: help our clients to beat the market
Chinese Embassy in US @ChineseEmbinUS
345K Followers 631 Following Official twitter account of the Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the United States of America
Passed Pawn @passedpawn
12K Followers 697 Following Recovering Hedge Fund Addict / Macro, Markets and Venture / Chess Master / @MIT Engineering
Derivatives Don @DerivativesDon
15K Followers 200 Following































