Hypermind @Hypermind_com
Prediction markets since 2000 (previously NewsFutures). hypermind.com New York - Paris - Madrid Joined May 2014-
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Lend your brain to Ukraine! Glimt is a joint project of the Swedish and Ukrainian governments, powered by Hypermind, open to everyone. Perhaps the first use case of crowd forecasting as a weapon of war against evil. Join us here: glimt.nu/glimt/en/welco… @kikollan @NunoSempere @jorgebmontanes @PTetlock @robinhanson @JamesSurowiecki @JustinWolfers @IgnatiusPost @pennockd @DavMicRot @Scott_E_Page @page_eco @GlimtCommunity @FOIresearch
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Tuesday morning Election 2024 forecast landscape: Skilled forecasters panels favor Harris, betting platforms favor Trump, and statistical models have no idea.
@ochlosophe @Onefora29958575 Whatever happens, nobody will be totally right or totally wrong. It's just probabilities on a single event.
Final pre-election day forecast landscape. Skilled forecasters give an edge to Harris. Betting markets (except PredictIt) give an edge to Trump. Statistical models occupy the toss-up middle-ground.
Harris' chances continued to improve overnight. Interestingly, the US-based mrkts give her better odds (51% avrg) than the foreign-based mrkts (46% avrg). She's the favorite of the skilled forecasters panels (Hypermind, Good Judgment, Metaculus), with 55% probability avrg.
Accelerating Kamalamentum in the last few days before the vote.
@JamesSurowiecki Kamalamentum, forecasting platforms edition
@peterwildeford It's just a correction back toward the true odds.
Comparative analysis of Harris vs Trump forecasts over the last month. @GJ_Open @superforecaster @metaculus @FiveThirtyEight @TheEconomist @ManifoldMarkets @PredictIt @Betfair @Polymarket @Kalshi
@ochlosophe « Prediction polls » est le terme technique. Voir researchgate.net/publication/28…
It is remarkable that our prediction market is now (Oct 26) the only crowd-forecasting or statistical model that still gives Kamala Harris slightly more chances of winning (54%) than losing. All others are now favoring Trump more or less boldly.
Join the FIGHT to make the most accurate forecasts about swing states and congressional control! New contest launched today with > $1,000 reward. predict.hypermind.com
@nikosbosse you might also be interested in this research on infectious disease crowd forecasting that we conducted with Johns Hopkins : drive.google.com/file/d/1T_MBIn…
@nikosbosse Thanks @nikosbosse. We have not drawn any conclusions yet. Just getting started. Need to gather more data, including 2024.
@NunoSempere @nikosbosse @TLiptay And this is Hypermind's calibration on all questions over the last 10 years.
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