Evan Weaver @LexSamDaniel
Mostly following elite forecasters on here to try to get good sources of information. Into EA, but am a casual since I don't have a lot of energy to give. Joined May 2022-
Tweets70
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Following90
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Likes89
@aakashgupta Are we sure the direction of causality isn't reversed in that making money makes it to where men can get a spouse?
@john_henry Your secret is safe with me 😘 😂 Lol I meant to reply to the original one or at least heart it, but you know, there's a lot of things we should all be doing. Limited time and energy and all that.
@RosieCampbell Involuntary death would have been somewhat more straightforward
@NathanpmYoung If you have acid reflux, don't eat eat anywhere near bedtime and perhaps tilt your bed, and I don't know what else.
@NathanpmYoung on YouTube could probably manually interpret your breathing graphs for you and tell you. Or a watchpat test with its RDI number could generally tell you. Although it seems that some people have problematic flow resistance without arousals that get missed by even watchpat tests
@NathanpmYoung Oh and getting a light meter app for your phone is informative about how bright and dark different settings are
@NathanpmYoung If you go with CPAPfriend make sure he agrees to manually look over the graphs and not rely only on the automated scoring. Also going to bed later can make you feel better if going to bed too early is messing your sleep up. Cheers and good luck!
@LocBibliophilia @dwarkesh_sp We need to at least not have a department/org where the president can just fire and appoint the head of it at will. Like the DOJ, FBI, DHS, etc. It seems like with Trump we are seeing that this is too much power for one person to have. Idk what the exact solution is though.
@NathanpmYoung What are you interested in right now?
@NathanpmYoung Where do you think the Epstein files stuff goes? Do you think it ever catches up to Trump?
@NathanpmYoung Has being a high performing forecaster and having access to lots of other high-performing forecasters helped you trade stocks or anything like that? Or is the market normally caught up to your insights? Or perhaps you might know something is likely but not know how to trade it?
@NathanpmYoung What sort of thing do skilled forecasters generally agree on and disagree on? Value vs outcomes seems like a good distinction, but specifically as far as predicting outcomes goes, where is the line where questions are too (complex?) for converging agreement
@NathanpmYoung I wonder how much intellectual honesty (or just being into forecasting and communities that value it?) is just normally found in center left sort of people vs I guess it doesn't inherently cause one to become center left.
@NathanpmYoung Do you think a lot of questions of ideal policy are just unknowable, even by the most intellectually honest among us? I think most forecasters are center or center left, so combined with the fact that when looking only at forecasters, political leanings don't affect accuracy 2/?
@NathanpmYoung Do you believe any conspiracy theories that come to mind? Do you know if most forecasters do? Did the Epstein files make you update in that you wouldn't have thought it would be real until it was now revealed to be?
@NathanpmYoung I think I like most people but am bored by the prospects of a conversation with most people in a causal setting. Maybe I could get better at prompting more interesting conversations.
@peterwildeford @itaisher @ryancbriggs x.com/i/status/20302…
@itaisher @ryancbriggs 100 years ago people wouldn't have believed we would be able to get detailed life advice from rocks without psychosis, but here we are.
Tom Liptay @TLiptay
1K Followers 1K Following Director of Forecasting @FUTURESEARCHAI. Previously @Metaculus. GJP Superforecaster.
john (touching grass) @john_henry
591 Followers 2K Following former superforecaster, physics, mba, been around VC, startups, software. now playing with 3d printing, LLM’s, sci-fi. [email protected]
Wendy @Sourceiu5
177 Followers 2K Following I wish my bank account refilled as fast as my laundry basket
jsd @datagenproc
2K Followers 4K Following @EpochAIResearch. My DMs are open. Anonymous feedback: https://t.co/0k6Duylwqa
9000wattz @nine1000wattz
103 Followers 2K Following The pack leader always rewards his nest with restaurant ideas
Mark @probahilliby
68 Followers 82 Following Superforecaster®, Culinarian, Owner. Quality frameworks that work—honest, altruistic, built to last. [email protected]
Hannah Cruz @HannahCruz72937
3 Followers 149 Following AI robot cryptocurrency quantitative trading, daily income ranges from 500-1000 US dollars. Detailed website: https://t.co/hFb3rZlM1e Invitation c ode: 470089
Ezra Karger @EzraKarger
537 Followers 565 Following Economist @ChicagoFed, thinking about labor/education/public economics.
Forecasting Research ... @Research_FRI
4K Followers 26 Following We advance the science of forecasting to improve decision-making on high stakes issues. Co-founded by chief scientist Philip Tetlock.
MEPP @MEPPonPM
6K Followers 216 Following top 15 geopolitic trader on Polymarket. I think about the past, I dream about the future.
denizz @denizz_poly
2K Followers 70 Following Polymarket Middle East specialist https://t.co/AVL8vwVojQ
Dropper @DropperPM
4K Followers 484 Following Never stop clicking. Top 100 trader on @Polymarket. Follow for alpha!
Car @CarOnPolymarket
30K Followers 290 Following Clicking buttons on prediction markets. Top 0.0001% Polymarket trader.
gopfan @r_gopfan
3K Followers 87 Following Professional polymarket trader, 2M+ pnl https://t.co/Ef6uV52avi
Tom Liptay @TLiptay
1K Followers 1K Following Director of Forecasting @FUTURESEARCHAI. Previously @Metaculus. GJP Superforecaster.
Hal Brands @HalBrands
25K Followers 1K Following JHU, AEI, Bloomberg Opinion. Author of new book, The Eurasian Century, https://t.co/6AYaBa3Q49
Scott Alexander @slatestarcodex
166K Followers 38 Following I have a place where I say complicated things about philosophy and science. That place is my blog. This is where I make terrible puns.
David Manheim @davidmanheim
11K Followers 2K Following Founder @alter_org_il, Methods @EvalConsensusAI, emeritus @superforecaster, PhD @PardeeRAND Optimistic on AI, pessimistic on humanity managing the risks well.
Scottilicious @scottonPoly
4K Followers 872 Following "A world that is ordered is not the world-order. There are moments of silent depth in which you look at the world order fully present." Not financial advice.
stone cold ape @fortaellinger
466 Followers 207 Following predicting incentives and emotions. on the road to 8 figs, verifiable onchain. 24% complete https://t.co/jyxVeItrsG https://t.co/TCH6YYqFbQ
fhgfjhkkj @HarveyMackinto2
5K Followers 758 Following
孤狼资本 @AnselFang
12K Followers 1K Following 六边形实战玩家 跨市场交易复盘 Crypto / Polymarket / 美股 兼职情感博主/人生导师/社会现象观察者 X只是我自由发言的朋友圈罢了
Bayesian @Bayesian0_0
738 Followers 2K Following #1 AI forecaster on Manifold Markets (and #2 across all categories) https://t.co/glexRhhFiK I want everything to make sense
Sentinel @XriskFYI
22K Followers 2K Following Our elite cyborg forecasters identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you.
rai @rai_sur11
2K Followers 1K Following anon feedback: https://t.co/QMFfDhuiQn prev: cofounder @sentinelteamhq, cofounder & cto @universaldotxyz, eth core dev, AI @microsoft @azure
DK Coutant @dk_coutant
136 Followers 180 Following I write books with dead people in them. You might call them mysteries. I also forecast geopolitical events. They are a garden of story ideas.
viv 🔸 @vivian_belenky
724 Followers 545 Following Clean indoor air, pandemic prevention. Many other functions. Testimonials: ''almost like a real engineer''
Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster
11K Followers 695 Following Delivering insights into global challenges through the science and art of #Superforecasting. Test your forecasting prowess at https://t.co/5H8XIhN7eK
Alex Lyzhov @alexlyzhov
189 Followers 254 Following
Molly Hickman @celloMolly
713 Followers 759 Following Technical product manager @ Metaculus. Kidney donor. 🧬 Samotsvety Forecasting. SMBC to a very wee boy
Jonathan Mann @jw_mann
70 Followers 76 Following
Hypermind @Hypermind_com
865 Followers 310 Following Prediction markets since 2000 (previously NewsFutures).
Ryan Beck @ryanbeck111
543 Followers 1K Following Forecasting enthusiast and serial hobbyist. Director of Forecasting at @Metaculus. Author of SEER. Formerly a bridge engineer.
Michał Dubrawski - S... @MDubrawski
685 Followers 2K Following Author of the One-Armed Pundit Substack https://t.co/tSYzhBHl4c Pro forecaster at @Metaculus and @INFERpub (michal_dubrawski)
Metaculus @metaculus
13K Followers 838 Following Forecasts on critical topics. Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: https://t.co/jHtSvLhuih FutureEval: https://t.co/AuPHSXYWU7 Partner: https://t.co/9Ld1Xrk4eY
Philip E. Tetlock @PTetlock
48K Followers 638 Following Penn-Integrates-Knowledge (PIK) Professor, Wharton & School of Arts & Sciences. Likes = interesting; Retweets = very interesting; Interesting ≠ endorsement
Mark @probahilliby
68 Followers 82 Following Superforecaster®, Culinarian, Owner. Quality frameworks that work—honest, altruistic, built to last. [email protected]
Isabel J. 🇺🇦 @brightertmrrw
300 Followers 702 Following the only way out is through. not sure where we're going but trying to make sure we get there. answering questions @epochairesearch
Isabel Juniewicz @isajun1
10 Followers 61 Following
Swift Centre @swift_centre
1K Followers 33 Following The future that matters. We offer unparalleled expertise in scenario analysis, horizon scanning, and forecasting. https://t.co/errRrmSnHC
Good Judgment Open @GJ_Open
3K Followers 96 Following The official Twitter handle of the internet's smartest crowd. GJ Open forecasts do not represent the views of Good Judgment Inc (our doting parent co.)
The Oracle @polymarketinfo
4K Followers 290 Following News & Views from the World's Largest Prediction Market Get the Newsletter 👇
Just Curious / @belik... @Just_Curius
2K Followers 3K Following Forecaster "belikewater" @XriskFYI @Swift_Centre @SamotsvetyF @RANDforecasting. Superforecaster® with Good Judgment Inc. PhD Neurosci, MA Econ. Opinions my own.
Oliver Habryka @ohabryka
8K Followers 839 Following Building https://t.co/O5mQY6jndL and https://t.co/s49h898W4b.
Adam Binksmith @adambinksmith
2K Followers 560 Following Building @aidigest_ and forecasting tools at @sage_future_ 🔭 Prev PhD @StAndrewsCS, @ClearerThinkng
Mike Bishop 🇨🇦�... @thatMikeBishop
1K Followers 2K Following Interests: AI governance, forecasting, epistemology, social science methodology, policy, etc. Previously: @Superforecaster, @Shopify, @ReplicationMkts
𝔊𝔴𝔢𝔯𝔫 @gwern
76K Followers 109 Following Internet besserwisser; pedantic, mean reply guy. 𝘞𝘢𝘵𝘢𝘴𝘩𝘪 𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘴𝘶! (Follow requests ignored due to terrible UI.)
Nathan 🔎 @NathanpmYoung
31K Followers 4K Following Director, Goodheart Labs. AI-written Community Notes (world first). Part time forecaster @swift_centre. Capital case tweets are literal, others less.
Sylvain @tenthkrige
511 Followers 189 Following Forecaster, Product Manager @Metaculus, Rule-of-3 Respecter.You might like
