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Fortnightly Forecasts @FForecasts

Read what the future could look like, from a team of GJP superforecasters and well-calibrated colleagues: https://t.co/DizAl7s1RS supers.substack.com Joined August 2021
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Fortnightly Forecasts retweeted
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Swift Centre @swift_centre

4 years ago

🚨 New Swift exercise: What would happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? Within 90 days of nuke use: - 58%: NATO conventional forces enter the conflict - 51%: US strikes on Russian military assets overseas - 44%: Kaliningrad blockade swiftcentre.org/what-would-be-…

Fortnightly Forecasts retweeted
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Swift Centre @swift_centre

4 years ago

If Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, our forecaster panel estimate the risk of escalation to a 1m+ casualty event in the 90 days following at less than 5% swiftcentre.org/what-would-be-…

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Fortnightly Forecasts @FForecasts

4 years ago

New articles about nuclear escalation probability from @swift_centre and @rdeneufville are really worth reading: tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/the-nuclear-…

Fortnightly Forecasts retweeted
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Samotsvety Forecasting @SamotsvetyF

4 years ago

We fixed an aggregation error and updated our estimates. In doing so, we realized that our estimates could be more robust, so we will be updating these as we find more forecasters with a good track record who are willing to give quantified estimates --Nuño.

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Fortnightly Forecasts @FForecasts

4 years ago

4) INFER Reports: infer-pub.com/archive (you can also subscribe to the mailing list there to get updates)

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Fortnightly Forecasts @FForecasts

4 years ago

3) Robert de Neufville's "Telling The Future" Newsletter: tellingthefuture.substack.com

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Fortnightly Forecasts @FForecasts

4 years ago

We haven't published for a while, but if you are interested in forecasting and what some top forecasters have to say, follow @swift_centre, @metaculus Journal articles, @rdeneufville and @INFERpub. You can also check out our substack recommendations: supers.substack.com/recommendations

Fortnightly Forecasts retweeted
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Swift Centre @swift_centre

4 years ago

What happens to Germany if Russia cuts off the gas this winter? swiftcentre.org/what-happens-t…

Fortnightly Forecasts retweeted
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Tom Chivers @TomChivers

4 years ago

On superforecasting, and how to predict conflicts like Ukraine inews.co.uk/news/science/h… with thanks to @MWStory @ClayGraubard @MDubrawski

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