Read what the future could look like, from a team of GJP superforecasters and well-calibrated colleagues: https://t.co/DizAl7s1RSsupers.substack.comJoined August 2021
🚨 New Swift exercise: What would happen if Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine?
Within 90 days of nuke use:
- 58%: NATO conventional forces enter the conflict
- 51%: US strikes on Russian military assets overseas
- 44%: Kaliningrad blockade
swiftcentre.org/what-would-be-…
If Russia used a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, our forecaster panel estimate the risk of escalation to a 1m+ casualty event in the 90 days following at less than 5%
swiftcentre.org/what-would-be-…
We fixed an aggregation error and updated our estimates. In doing so, we realized that our estimates could be more robust, so we will be updating these as we find more forecasters with a good track record who are willing to give quantified estimates --Nuño.
We haven't published for a while, but if you are interested in forecasting and what some top forecasters have to say, follow @swift_centre, @metaculus Journal articles, @rdeneufville and @INFERpub. You can also check out our substack recommendations:
supers.substack.com/recommendations
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