Michael Story ⚓ @MWStory
Making Forecasting Useful at @swift_centre. I like big dogs, fast boats, and old stones 🇬🇧🇺🇲🇰🇪🇧🇪🇺🇲🇫🇷🇬🇧🇷🇺🇬🇧🇹🇼 London 🇬🇧 Taipei 🇹🇼 Joined March 2009-
Tweets11K
-
Followers11K
-
Following3K
-
Likes22K
Beautiful sail out to Turtle Island today. It doesn’t get much better than this! ⛵️😎
This imo is one of the benefits of it generally not being as stigmatised to be bad at math. Much lower stakes to point out a mistake, correct, and move on if egos aren't bruised
This imo is one of the benefits of it generally not being as stigmatised to be bad at math. Much lower stakes to point out a mistake, correct, and move on if egos aren't bruised
Quite interesting to see the earnings peaks getting later and the descent shallower for more recent cohorts, presumably as their better health helps them stay productive for longer. Except for GenX- what’s going on there? Pandemic work withdrawal? economist.com/finance-and-ec…
People often ask “should I quit my job to do X?” But how often is progress towards X something you can *only* achieve by quitting your job? Sometimes belief in Big Choices can be a way of deferring or avoiding taking small first steps
People often ask “should I quit my job to do X?” But how often is progress towards X something you can *only* achieve by quitting your job? Sometimes belief in Big Choices can be a way of deferring or avoiding taking small first steps
This stuff is why meddling with ISAs is going to be a big debate imo. If you don’t want to confront the damage planning does then blaming everything on “low investment” is the perfect excuse
This stuff is why meddling with ISAs is going to be a big debate imo. If you don’t want to confront the damage planning does then blaming everything on “low investment” is the perfect excuse
This is gonna be great. Ordered
British people are escaping low UK pay by working remotely for US firms. This is probably the single biggest leg-up I've seen UK pals get in their careers, and unlike emigrating for a job it's not too disruptive. Def worth exploring wsj.com/finance/invest…
One year ago today, the Swift Centre forecasters estimated that Ozempic or similar GLP-1 agonists could raise UK life expectancy by more than 14 months swiftcentre.org/publicforecast…
Latest from Swift: Peak coal is still to come!
Sam Bowman @s8mb
49K Followers 2K Following Editor of https://t.co/YPQHCCb6Ke. Just here to have fun. COYS 🇺🇦
Ben Sixsmith @BDSixsmith
45K Followers 2K Following Anglo writer in Poland. Online Editor and podcast critic for @TheCriticMag. Subscribe to THE ZONE on Substack.
Stefan Schubert @StefanFSchubert
28K Followers 2K Following Philosophy, psychology, and effective altruism.
Robin Hanson @robinhanson
90K Followers 656 Following Let’s skip witty repartee & discuss fundamental questions. Views are mine, not GMU’s or Virginia’s. Books: https://t.co/hpZgEm5DBI, https://t.co/iFs9C3J2Ek
Mike Bird @Birdyword
87K Followers 2K Following Asia business & finance editor @TheEconomist. Co-host of our Money Talks podcast. Just a lad from Leeds with a lust for markets, economics and history.
Anya Martin @AnyaM8_
9K Followers 2K Following Housing affordability wonk & number cruncher. Formerly director @pricedoutuk. Also Arnie films, mysterious polls, & pictures of my dinner
Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford
10K Followers 366 Following Pro forecaster w/ good track record. Seeking to understand + manage risks from advanced AI systems. - Co-CEO @RethinkPriors - Chief Advisory Executive @iapsAI
Eggroll🏯🇬🇧 @EggrollShogun
4K Followers 2K Following 'I transmit; I do not innovate.' Aspiring trilingual: 英日中
Niall Gooch 👍🇻�.. @niall_gooch
13K Followers 1K Following Catholic, husband, Dad. Occasional writer. Interested in history, trains, poetry, cricket, whodunits, buildings, paintings. The fire and the rose are one.
Sam Ashworth-Hayes @SAshworthHayes
13K Followers 1K Following Assistant Comment (op ed) Editor @telegraph. Opinions my own and should be yours too.
Tom Chivers @TomChivers
58K Followers 1K Following "Far too nice to be a journalist": Terry Pratchett. Lead writer, Flagship. Semafor. chiversthomas(a)gmail. Third book, Everything is Predictable, out April
Richard Ngo @RichardMCNgo
35K Followers 1K Following What would we need to understand in order to design an amazing future? Figuring that out @openai
Joxley @Mr_John_Oxley
9K Followers 3K Following Consultant, writer and broadcaster, seen @spectator | @unherd | @NewStatesman | @cityam | @Telegraph and elsewhere. Newsletter link below. DM for anything else.
Sam Dumitriu @Sam_Dumitriu
13K Followers 1K Following Head of Policy (@BritainRemade). Adviser (@TenThinkTank).
🇧🇧 Æthelbread .. @Aethelbread
512 Followers 405 Following CEO, insanity twitter. Chief Scientific Advisor to the Return to Monke (R2M) campaign.
fast hash @AntityrantGB
92 Followers 78 Following Free thinker never masked up not even once , no bio weapon in my blood
ben @KilowattsIo
221 Followers 829 Following Energy developer building free apps and tools to understand and make better decisions. https://t.co/f7V1xGM6yj
Noah Atabani #Keep Ey.. @NoahAtabani1
248 Followers 6K Following Progressive Human Rights Campaigner/Sudan Analyst , specialised in Foreign Affairs, Diplomacy, and Disabilities Rights. 🇨🇭 🇬🇧 🇿🇦 🇨🇦 🇱🇧
Ruth layan @LayanRuth26271
32 Followers 586 Following
Madelon Vos @MadelonnVos_
377 Followers 2K Following Follow me to learn about #Bitcoin #Macroeconomics,#CentralBanking,#Investing & #Inflation ▫️ Madelon Vos on YouTube (100K + subs) ▫️Ex host @BNR
Martin Fan @perfectoid_ai
400 Followers 8K Following
Hauke Hillebrandt @Ha_uke
324 Followers 992 Following Former researcher at @Harvard @UCL @CGDev @CentreforEA and Founder of https://t.co/hgikUchI9b https://t.co/RjW7rjb4IC
Republican Anarchist .. @GOP_RAC
1K Followers 8K Following Promoting conservatarian market anarchism within the @GOP | No formal affiliations with the party yet | ❤️, 🔁 & Follow ≠ Endorse | #MakeAnarchismGreatAgain
NotEvenTrying @rizkidotme
239 Followers 5K Following The difference between planning and predicting yourself is planning just the first-person POV version of the latter. #beyondarbitrary
James' dog. @WestminsterPup
3K Followers 2K Following Dog of a Westminster researcher. Wandering the labyrinthine corridors of the Blob. Owner's words in @TheSpectator, @UnHerd, @TheCriticMag, and @spikedonline.
Tom Marley @tommarley
472 Followers 2K Following I like pizza, Man Utd, Fridays, history and tea. Dislike fancy dress.
Delepps @jfmzs55
55 Followers 82 Following I wear black on the outside because black is how I feel on the inside
Michael Scott @MichaelSco59116
140 Followers 667 Following
wassname @wassname
137 Followers 896 Following If you can't possibly remember what something is called, what it is, what it does, or why it does it, it instantly becomes a 'wassname' Waiting to be uploaded.
Ryan Hauser @R__Hauser
2K Followers 4K Following Editor, https://t.co/2vFebqEBeg | HPS/STS + Political Economy | Grad Student @STS_VT | Usual caveats.
Matt Slowikowski @Timeforteatwo
309 Followers 2K Following The Astra hasn't come, but the long slog of Aspera continues.
Pensé FFun @inftyCategory
108 Followers 6K Following
phytoblankton @phytoblankton
3 Followers 31 Following
Jakub Stencel @stencel_jakub
643 Followers 1K Following Fighting animal suffering. ✊ Managing @anima_int & @otwarteklatki. Aspiring to make a difference in the world 📈 Into management, effective altruism, science💡
JOHN @estate1200
109 Followers 403 Following
Ryan McDermott @blhack
464 Followers 1K Following
Nevin34 @CormacNevin
15 Followers 428 Following
Zippy @Zippy751388
89 Followers 602 Following
Dominic Rohner @dominic_rohner
5K Followers 5K Following Economics professor @heclausanne @UNIL studying conflict, development & institutions. PI @ERC_Research grant. Leader #RPNpeace @cepr_org. Assoc. Editor @EJ_RES.
finbarr @finbarrtimbers
8K Followers 647 Following large models @midjourney. ai hot takes at https://t.co/pSeuTpK0xO.
Michael Bhaskar @michaelbhaskar
9K Followers 3K Following Writer & Publisher | @MicrosoftAI | THE COMING WAVE, HUMAN FRONTIERS, CURATION, THE CONTENT MACHINE | ex @canelo_co @DeepMind | Ideas, books, technology
83x1h1t @83x1h1t
0 Followers 50 Following
Béatrice Leydier �.. @BeaLeydier
3K Followers 4K Following conseillère des 🇫🇷 de l'étranger à DC 🇺🇲, nerd @gui2de_GU, team croissance 🥐 & chocolatine. unfortunately no one is responsible for my tweets
Steven Bomes @SteveBomes
17 Followers 27 Following
boysey @boysey21
51 Followers 285 Following
matt @matt_moran13
115 Followers 819 Following
JMD @JManDec1958
15 Followers 695 Following Retired Professor. Englishman in the American South. I delete responses after a while
Damian Collins @DamianCollins
30K Followers 10K Following Damian Collins OBE, MP for Folkestone & Hythe. Former UK Tech Minister & DCMS select cttee chair. (Promoted by Damian Collins, 4 West Cliff Gardens. CT20 1SP)
Jim @JimeeLiberty
1K Followers 5K Following Trying hard every day to be a little less wrong. Free Markets and Free Minds
Subeedai @Considered_
760 Followers 4K Following Trading. Own a racehorse, not a fast one though. Way with Words will run this year!
Sam Bowman @s8mb
49K Followers 2K Following Editor of https://t.co/YPQHCCb6Ke. Just here to have fun. COYS 🇺🇦
Ben Sixsmith @BDSixsmith
45K Followers 2K Following Anglo writer in Poland. Online Editor and podcast critic for @TheCriticMag. Subscribe to THE ZONE on Substack.
Dominic Cummings @Dominic2306
295K Followers 2 Following peace abroad, regime change at home / maths circles / systems politics
Stefan Schubert @StefanFSchubert
28K Followers 2K Following Philosophy, psychology, and effective altruism.
Robin Hanson @robinhanson
90K Followers 656 Following Let’s skip witty repartee & discuss fundamental questions. Views are mine, not GMU’s or Virginia’s. Books: https://t.co/hpZgEm5DBI, https://t.co/iFs9C3J2Ek
Mike Bird @Birdyword
87K Followers 2K Following Asia business & finance editor @TheEconomist. Co-host of our Money Talks podcast. Just a lad from Leeds with a lust for markets, economics and history.
Anya Martin @AnyaM8_
9K Followers 2K Following Housing affordability wonk & number cruncher. Formerly director @pricedoutuk. Also Arnie films, mysterious polls, & pictures of my dinner
Peter Wildeford @peterwildeford
10K Followers 366 Following Pro forecaster w/ good track record. Seeking to understand + manage risks from advanced AI systems. - Co-CEO @RethinkPriors - Chief Advisory Executive @iapsAI
Eggroll🏯🇬🇧 @EggrollShogun
4K Followers 2K Following 'I transmit; I do not innovate.' Aspiring trilingual: 英日中
Niall Gooch 👍🇻�.. @niall_gooch
13K Followers 1K Following Catholic, husband, Dad. Occasional writer. Interested in history, trains, poetry, cricket, whodunits, buildings, paintings. The fire and the rose are one.
Robert Colvile @rcolvile
52K Followers 3K Following Director of @CPSThinkTank, EIC of @CapX, Sunday columnist for @thetimes, author of 'The Great Acceleration'. Politics, policy and parenting.
Sam Ashworth-Hayes @SAshworthHayes
13K Followers 1K Following Assistant Comment (op ed) Editor @telegraph. Opinions my own and should be yours too.
Tom Chivers @TomChivers
58K Followers 1K Following "Far too nice to be a journalist": Terry Pratchett. Lead writer, Flagship. Semafor. chiversthomas(a)gmail. Third book, Everything is Predictable, out April
Kelsey Piper @KelseyTuoc
27K Followers 544 Following Senior writer at Vox's Future Perfect. [email protected]
GEOAvia @bclemens
6K Followers 175 Following I scour Google Earth to post interesting artifacts of aviation history that are still in the wild. Please scroll my timeline. Amazing relics out there.
Centre for the Govern.. @GovAI_
3K Followers 30 Following We are building a global research community, dedicated to helping humanity navigate the transition to a world with advanced AI
Louise Perry @Louise_m_perry
40K Followers 2K Following "ludicrous crackpot" and host of @maiden_podcast I make good use of the notification filters so I might not see your reply
Toby Shevlane @tshevl
2K Followers 1K Following Research Scientist testing AI models for new capabilities at @GoogleDeepMind. Tweeting about AI and the future.
Robert Tolan @Rob_Tolan
204 Followers 26 Following Emergent Ventures, Cohort 25 @mercatus, Polaris Fellow, Cohort 1 @join_polaris supported by @join_ef.
Nick Bloom @I_Am_NickBloom
20K Followers 714 Following Stanford Economics Professor, research on Working From Home, co-founder of https://t.co/CWq4DqmFvI
Mike Hudack @mhudack
6K Followers 4K Following Building @SlingMoney. Previously CPO @Monzo, CPTO @Deliveroo, product @Facebook, founder Blip. Angel investor in amazing companies and board @VidIQ.
Dave Schmerler @DaveSchmerler
12K Followers 2K Following Senior Research Associate, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies @MIIS - Satellite imagery of all things WMD.
page @michaelhpage
116 Followers 214 Following
L Steven Goldblatt @LSGoldblatt
877 Followers 5K Following The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves, that we are underlings.
Jeremiah Johnson 🌐 @JeremiahDJohns
26K Followers 1 Following Internet analyst writing at Infinite Scroll. Founder @CNLiberalism. Carly Rae Jepsen stan. Send me the worst tweets on this site. https://t.co/xONcXY5PQv
TracingWoodgrains @tracewoodgrains
22K Followers 1K Following Storyteller. CFP @TheBARPod. Pursue excellence. Eng/中文
Jack Rankin 🇬🇧�.. @jackmrankin
3K Followers 967 Following @Conservatives Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for Windsor. Promoted by Jack Rankin c/o Windsor Conservatives, Suite 120, 24-28 St Leonards Road SL4 3BB.
Matjaž Leonardis @MatjazLeonardis
6K Followers 5K Following Interested in learning and creativity. In both humans and machines. (Tweets about education, relationships, institutions, math and computation).
Angie Wang @angieeecreates
955 Followers 230 Following I practice movement, write about life explorations, and create art. Podcaster. Course Creator. Capoerista🤸♂️ Life is a playground✨
Joe Hill @jo3hill
826 Followers 1K Following policy director @reformthinktank 🇬🇧🚀 ex Treasury and Faculty, views my own
Oliver Stanley @_OliverStanley
697 Followers 258 Following ML engineer. Open-source AI, armchair policy/econ. Legalise housebuilding.
Phoebe Arslanagić-Li.. @PMArslanagic
2K Followers 3K Following Head of the New Deal for Parents @UKOnward | Co-Founder @TheBoomCampaign | Chair @WiTTforum | Columnist @CityAM | Pronounced: ars-lah-nah-gitch
Louis Coiffait-Gunn�.. @LouisMMCoiffait
8K Followers 8K Following CEO designate (8 May) @CILIPinfo the library & information assoc. Govnr @worcester_uni + a @TowerHamletsNow school. Trying @joinmastodon + @bluesky. Own views.
Tom Pettinger @TomPettinger
932 Followers 901 Following O&G/G&T/CofE. Consultant at @BTHFT. Preterm birth/Communication/Safety II in women’s health. “Make the right way the easy way.” Be angry, but sin not.
Family Capital Club @FamilyCapClub
872 Followers 1 Following The community for stewards of Family Capital - financial, legacy, intrafamily, human, structural, and social... https://t.co/aCPyuIbag5
JD Foote | Family Cap.. @jd_foote
13K Followers 834 Following Gen 1 in our legacy family, psychiatrist, 25 years in SMBs as operator, investor, advisor. Use the Family Capital framework to build your legacy family NOW...
Adam Hunt @RealAdamHunt
2K Followers 1K Following PhD in evolutionary psychiatry. Explaining neurodiversity, improving methods & stigma. 'Evolving Psychiatry' podcast host. Pro-future.
Starship Launch Alarm.. @starship_alarm
6K Followers 7 Following Follow to get notified when a Starship is likely to be launched in the next 30 minutes. A single tweet is sent out between T-30:00 and T-10:00. Nothing else!
Sam Freedman @Samfr
145K Followers 1K Following Writes the UK's most popular politics Substack (https://t.co/bcjXR0ncfL). New book - "Failed State" - out 29th August https://t.co/uPuWlb39R3.
Scarcity News @ScarcityStudios
28K Followers 429 Following https://t.co/6NYuQNczwv email - [email protected]
Kahlil Corazo 🧭 Ex.. @kcorazo
2K Followers 911 Following Book: How to Turn Ideas Into Reality - https://t.co/RAwxwYDzcn - https://t.co/UHcOFedwYz Essays towards Rajah vs Conquistador (next book):
broti gupta @BrotiGupta
91K Followers 1K Following Simpsons writer Indian women’s humor twitter account https://t.co/5I6PCj7FlM
davidad 🎇 @davidad
13K Followers 7K Following Programme Director @ARIA_research | accelerate mathematical modelling with AI and categorical systems theory » build safe transformative AI » cancel heat death
Nicholas Gruen @NGruen1
34K Followers 6K Following CEO Lateral Economics Promoting EQUALITY of speech through randomly selected citizens’ juries https://t.co/7cz80uoyrU
James Johnson @jamesjohnson252
22K Followers 4K Following JJ. Ran polling at @10downingstreet, talk to the public for a living. Entrepreneur and co-founder of @jlpartnerspolls. [email protected]
Arjun Panickssery is .. @panickssery
1K Followers 2K Following Researching scalable oversight @MATSprogram | prev @METR_Evals @ai_risks | spaced repetition | AI safety | https://t.co/p887k6EsFs
Valeriy M., PhD, MBA,.. @predict_addict
17K Followers 3K Following PhD in machine learning | conformal prediction | time-series | author of bestselling Practical Guide to Applied Conformal-Prediction https://t.co/ugR9TtXd29
PHILIP RICHARDSON @PRWRichardson
112 Followers 164 Following Retired but not retiring. Cynicism’s friend
Manas Bam @bamitsmanas
458 Followers 449 Following Learning the fundamentals and building for fun | Prev. https://t.co/XOeGnDz3bA, https://t.co/BVOjk27Uc4, https://t.co/Br0PlnDOoV | Curr. Research @ SSI Lab, & AIoT Lab NUS | CS @nuscollege
Cissy Hu @cissyrxhu
1K Followers 364 Following reimagining human flourishing in the 21st century & building a more psychologically resilient world | https://t.co/N7o7fiYE7P
James Newport @NwprtNarrative
46 Followers 45 Following 10% luck, 20% skill, 15% adjustment for potential error, 5% cider, 50% prior, and 100% unhealthy levels of satire. Impact focused Bayesian policy professional.
Chris Bayliss @baylissbaghdad
2K Followers 2K Following I work on infrastructure project finance and fuel supply. Most recently Kyiv and Baghdad.
Charlie Radclyffe @CharlieRadUK
1K Followers 1K Following Advocates for those injured in UK military + disabled people | Trustee Living Options Devon | Founder https://t.co/xLypoKUMSO
𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚕�.. @CharlesCMann
16K Followers 286 Following Writer of 1491, 1493, and The Wizard and the Prophet. Also @charlescmann.bsky.social.
Agathe Demarais @AgatheDemarais
21K Followers 996 Following Geoeconomics @ecfr • Columnist @ForeignPolicy • Economic fragmentation, de-risking, sanctions • Ex @TheEIU & @DGTresor • Sanctions book Backfire @ColumbiaUP
Iain Mansfield @IGMansfield
5K Followers 2K Following Current affairs, politics, education and miscellany. All views my own.Check out this moss coverage
My theory is that for most people it’s close to strictly better to have subtitles on, but older people didn’t grow up with this option and not as many of them have switched
Awesome pleasure speaking to undergraduates at the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh (UEH) - International School of Business. We talked about crime in commercial society. The students are very enthusiastic about avoiding the challenging entanglements of white-collar crime.
These videos go viral every now and then and they seem to basically be object permanence tests - can you see a short clip of someone doing something and imagine that they might also do other things
This is basically selling your soul, it’s so pointless
@FurtherOr It did though and everyone complained loudly at the time: showhouse.co.uk/features/sales…
This is well put by Owen Cotton-Barratt. "I think it's very easy for people, in research, to get fixated on things that don't really matter." Yes. lesswrong.com/posts/ydheLNeW…
Look at that subtle off-white headlight. The tasteful thickness of the grid pattern.
There's a European upper middle-class cope which basically says "yes, America might look richer, but there's no work-life balance, culture, or accessible healthcare." What I've learnt moving here is that, no, for genuinely comparable professionals, America is just much richer.
@MWStory @StefanFSchubert Agreed - And I think there’s less (non-psychological) path dependence today than ever before!
Fenton House gardens in mid spring ☀️🌱
First properly sunny day of the year!
sometimes people think being an entrepreneur / feral free agent is about getting to choose your own hours, which is part of it, but the real deep core is getting to direct your own labor
@aspiringpeasant they wanted me to get a prestigious job lol but they themselves ran their own small business which gave me a very direct experience of what it can be like to be in control of your own labor also they generally encouraged my reading habit which helped ig
@s8mb There's some post-WWI stuff too that people abroad know about (punk and Concorde, going by vibes). It's the great beige of conservatories, roundabouts, NHS, health and safety, license Raj and development corps that just doesn't matter
@MWStory There's a reason a lot of younger artists go hard on instagram, etc. If they can build an audience and sell direct they keep all the profits. Downside is capriciousness of platforms and the full time job of self-marketing.
People are realising that these new weight-loss drugs have multiple and significant health benefits Readers of our newsletter will know forecasters have been saying this for over a year now 👇
my kids spent Easter Mass foraging for rolly pollies (Not my Easter, I’m going to my Easter alone 🙌)
Thought we looked cute - might delete later
My contribution to The Cut piece discourse. When I read the first sentence, I thought “this is dumb, the lottery has no skill, so there’s no way to play it badly.” But then I got to the end of the paragraph and was like, Yup, that’s actually legitimately bad play.
Trends for United States
You might like
