FollowTheMoney Trader. @AverageInvesto5
Trying to find my edge in swing trades combining charts and macro view. Жыве Беларусь, Слава Украине. GO USA! USA Joined April 2020-
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$PYPL earnings in the morning. One of my most controversial and biggest positions (avg 50s). We broke out over the 200 moving average lately and retested it successfully. We are now one catalyst away from a 52w breakout and I think tomorrow might be it. ___ What do I want to…
Mortgage-backed securities just saw a weekly inflow of $2.2 billion, the largest inflow in history 🚨
JUST IN: 43% of small businesses in the US were unable to fully pay their rent in April, the highest share since March 2021. Delinquencies were the largest among restaurants where 52% became delinquent in April. More than 50% of small businesses claim that now rents are higher…
U.S. Banks finished the year with almost $400 billion of unrealized losses on held-to-maturity assets. The assumption is this wouldn't be a problem because the Fed would cut A LOT this year but what if that doesn't happen?
The U.S. economy is unbelievable and booming says JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. A week ago, he said stagflation could be coming. 6 months ago, he said this was the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades. Fascinating! Thanks Jamie 🫡🙏
Tell me a devaluation is coming without telling me that a devaluation is coming.. A MAJOR DEVALUATION OF THE CNY COULD BE IMMINENT More -> stenoresearch.com/steno-signals-…
US stock buybacks continue to push to record highs. This year, buybacks are expected to reach a record $1.15 trillion, according to Goldman Sachs. That would be up by nearly 16% from 2023. Year-to-date, we have already seen $317 billion of stock buybacks, slightly less than…
After a steep drop and extreme oversold readings, we experienced the expected 2-day counter rally. This is where the market needs to prove itself. Interestingly, the swift counter rally has resulted in high levels of FOMO, as indicated by the percentage of stocks above their…
$DIA is a leading indicator for now!
$AAPL is done in China ? #stockmarketcrash
$AAPL is done in China ? #stockmarketcrash
No landing bull trap or confidence blip on the way to the moon?😅 #stockmarketcrash
No landing bull trap or confidence blip on the way to the moon?😅 #stockmarketcrash
Big week for UST issuance coming up. Janet is selling $69bn of 2year notes, $70bn of 5 year notes, $44bn of 7 year notes and $30bn of 2-year FRN. What's $213bn of notes among friends! Collectively, all the auctions that settle on April 30th will bring in about $73bn of new money…
CTAs are projected to sell billions worth of stocks in EVERY SINGLE SCENARIO this week according to Goldman Sachs. And if the market trends lower over the next month, CTAs will need to dump $75 billion worth.
Is China preparing an imminent FX devaluation? The price action looks striking reminscent of 2014/2015 ahead of the managed devaluation of CNY. Full story: stenoresearch.com/steno-signals-…
Discover Financial, the 6th largest credit card issuer in America, just reported a massive spike in defaults. Their net charge-off rate - an indication of how many accounts are deemed as "uncollectable" - spiked to 5.7% in early 2024. The highest since the GFC. 📈
Yields on 10-year Treasuries have been above the S&P 500 earnings yield for three straight weeks. This is the first time we're seeing this since 2002: Jonestrading's Michael O'Rourke
'Few investors are willing to short the two largest US equity ETFs.' thedailyshot.com/2024/04/22/eco… via @SoberLook
Corporations are set for a rude awakening: Currently, corporate interest costs as percentage of net income are just 9.1%, the lowest since 1956. By comparison, this percentage was as high as 60% in the 2008 Financial Crisis. Why is it so low right now? Most corporations have…
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$PYPL earnings in the morning. One of my most controversial and biggest positions (avg 50s). We broke out over the 200 moving average lately and retested it successfully. We are now one catalyst away from a 52w breakout and I think tomorrow might be it. ___ What do I want to…
Mortgage-backed securities just saw a weekly inflow of $2.2 billion, the largest inflow in history 🚨
JUST IN: 43% of small businesses in the US were unable to fully pay their rent in April, the highest share since March 2021. Delinquencies were the largest among restaurants where 52% became delinquent in April. More than 50% of small businesses claim that now rents are higher…
California commercial real estate foreclosure filings almost tripled in January from a year earlier, per Bloomberg. About a fifth of commercial loans with foreclosure filings in 2023 came from banks, with the others provided by insurers, nonbank lenders and wealthy individuals:
the last two days, we're back to more stocks hitting 52-week highs than lows in the big Russell 1000 $IWB...
Decoding Market Breadth: The NDX McClellan Oscillator Jumps 110 points in three sessions (Market update at the bottom) This oscillator is used in the stock to measure the balance between advancing and declining stocks (A Market Breadth Indicator). It jumped from -100, a very…
There's no housing shortage. The US population is only up 0.85% since pre-Covid... and there was no housing shortage before 2020. What we saw was big buyers and individual buyers (myself incl) swoop in and buy a bunch of housing in 2020-2021 w/ low rates & market uncertainty.…
U.S. Banks finished the year with almost $400 billion of unrealized losses on held-to-maturity assets. The assumption is this wouldn't be a problem because the Fed would cut A LOT this year but what if that doesn't happen?
The U.S. economy is unbelievable and booming says JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. A week ago, he said stagflation could be coming. 6 months ago, he said this was the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades. Fascinating! Thanks Jamie 🫡🙏
This is not the Argentine stock market in USD terms. This is the UK FTSE (which just hit "record highs" yesterday) ... in gold terms, 1989-present.
Tell me a devaluation is coming without telling me that a devaluation is coming.. A MAJOR DEVALUATION OF THE CNY COULD BE IMMINENT More -> stenoresearch.com/steno-signals-…
April 24 is Maria Kalesnikava's birthday. The birthday of our Masha, whose radiant smile has become a source of support for Belarusians & a symbol of resilience for the world. If the regime is ‘not at war against women’, then how come it is the fourth year already that Masha…
US stock buybacks continue to push to record highs. This year, buybacks are expected to reach a record $1.15 trillion, according to Goldman Sachs. That would be up by nearly 16% from 2023. Year-to-date, we have already seen $317 billion of stock buybacks, slightly less than…
After a steep drop and extreme oversold readings, we experienced the expected 2-day counter rally. This is where the market needs to prove itself. Interestingly, the swift counter rally has resulted in high levels of FOMO, as indicated by the percentage of stocks above their…
Reminder that the Treasury has $213bn in notes to sell this week, starting off with $69bn of 2 year notes this afternoon. There will be various media outlets that will grade/score these auctions based on whether the auction comes thru or has a tail, what the bid to cover ratio…
I am a sucker for new time series, so this paper is awesome! The basic premise is that they used 13,000 local newspapers to construct a 170-year long measure of economic sentiment. They then use this as a leading indicator of GDP, employment, and consumption.
Last Friday I said the "market" was oversold and could bounce at any time. Friday was down but then Monday was up. However, the Dow has been up three days in a row and that is the index that imploded first. So it 's no longer oversold.