Nils Sonnenberg @zonnbergo
Economist at @kielinstitute: Research Center - Business Cycles and Growth. 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇦🇷💪 Joined April 2015-
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Negative EA-US 10y real rate differential - a dissection across yield curve ➡️ 2y real rate diff low despite some nominal de-coupling ➡️3y2y / 5y5y real rate diff widened ❓Low EA growth regime relative to US? ❓Higher US r*/debt/growth with lots of uncertainty around it?
NGDP Gap measure updated thru 2024Q1. Still running hot, though we have created a non-linear version that kicks in when there is greater uncertainty in the forecasts. It shows significant cooling. (Note coming soon on the non-linear version.) mercatus.org/research/polic…
¿Con mucha inercia inflacionaria es mejor ser gradualista? Muchos sugieren que sí, pero esta notita sugiere que... No. Con suficiente inercia es mejor no ser gradualista, mejor no evitar por completo el costo de una recesión. ¿Relevante para argentina hoy? ¿Comentarios?
Quite a big jump in 10Y German yields after the publication of Q1 data for US GDP growth and PCE inflation.
Indeed, the front-end re-pricing is a global phenomenon, - but US seems most aggressive these days compared to other global peers. What is more: At the long-end, EA-US real rate differentials hit a record in absolute terms. Will they mean-revert?
Indeed, the front-end re-pricing is a global phenomenon, - but US seems most aggressive these days compared to other global peers. What is more: At the long-end, EA-US real rate differentials hit a record in absolute terms. Will they mean-revert? https://t.co/JJgMr6g27w
Happy to share new administrative data and code with the public (joint work with @VBPeral and @JADHazell ) It allows people to estimate y*: the expected long-term housing yield in real-time going forward y* equals r*, expected long-term yield on safe assets, plus long-run…
Forderungen an die Ampel: Drei Punkte, bei denen die Ampelparteien über ihren Schatten springen müssen welt.de/debatte/kommen… a través de @welt
ifo Geschäftsklimaindex gestiegen - Der ifo #Geschäftsklimaindex ist im April auf 89,4 Punkte gestiegen, nach 87,9 Punkten im März. Die #Konjunktur stabilisiert sich, vor allem durch die Dienstleister. #ifoUmfrage @KlausWohlrabe @FuestClemens #Geschäftslage und -erwartungen
Housing is one reason not all countries feel the same pinch of higher interest rates, in part because monetary policy has more impact on economies with a low share of fixed-rate mortgages. imf.org/en/Blogs/Artic…
🇨🇭The SNB raises minimum reserve requirement for banks from 2.5% to 4%. "Since sight deposits which are held by banks to meet minimum reserve requirements are not remunerated, the interest costs for the SNB will be reduced". snb.ch/en/publication…
Das dürfte auf Basis der VGR sein. Das sollte international nicht verglichen werden. @IMFNews Bei Sozialen Sachleistungen laut VGR ist Dt z.B. Spitze. Bedeutet aber auch, das Investitionen für Krankenhäuser und Co. in Dt nicht dem Staat zugeordnet werden.
Das dürfte auf Basis der VGR sein. Das sollte international nicht verglichen werden. @IMFNews Bei Sozialen Sachleistungen laut VGR ist Dt z.B. Spitze. Bedeutet aber auch, das Investitionen für Krankenhäuser und Co. in Dt nicht dem Staat zugeordnet werden.
Actualizado.
Actualizado. https://t.co/gzp2V4jAQK
1/5 Und last but not least des aktuellen Monatsberichts: Update zur Entwicklung der Gläubigerstruktur der Staatsschulden. #Bundesbank #Monatsbericht. Das Eurosystem ist mit über einem Viertel weiterhin der größte Gläubiger der Mitgliedstaaten. publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikationen-…
Timely data for Distributional Wealth Accounts (DWA) of German households? ➡️here you go with the new QUARTERLY dataset provided by @bundesbank ➡️combines household survey with macro balance sheet data augmented by rich lists ➡️highly valuable for macro analysis 🧵\1👇
Looking at Auto Insurance's contribution to US Supercore CPI... I should have made this chart yesterday:
New paper on challenges in identifying structural drivers of recent inflation surge. If the deterministic component of inflation is imprecisely estimated, then structural shocks will be, too. If accounting for this: demand-driven shocks largely explain surge in the US and EA.👇
New paper on challenges in identifying structural drivers of recent inflation surge. If the deterministic component of inflation is imprecisely estimated, then structural shocks will be, too. If accounting for this: demand-driven shocks largely explain surge in the US and EA.👇 https://t.co/B0uOgzB7MJ
US: Price increases for services excluding shelter continue to rise (SA). These MoM rates will push YoY above 5% in the months to come. Only start-of-the-year repricing or longer lasting? @CrisisStudent
US: Price increases for services excluding shelter continue to rise (SA). These MoM rates will push YoY above 5% in the months to come. Only start-of-the-year repricing or longer lasting? @CrisisStudent https://t.co/sb2B2L4CKu
Die Veröffentlichung der Inflationsrate in den USA wirkt sich über den Zinsverbund auch treibend auf die Rendite der 10-jährigen Bundesanleihen aus. Zurück bei 2,4%.
Jan Schnellenbach �.. @schnellenbachj
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Negative EA-US 10y real rate differential - a dissection across yield curve ➡️ 2y real rate diff low despite some nominal de-coupling ➡️3y2y / 5y5y real rate diff widened ❓Low EA growth regime relative to US? ❓Higher US r*/debt/growth with lots of uncertainty around it?
Where democracy is most at risk economist.com/graphic-detail…
NGDP Gap measure updated thru 2024Q1. Still running hot, though we have created a non-linear version that kicks in when there is greater uncertainty in the forecasts. It shows significant cooling. (Note coming soon on the non-linear version.) mercatus.org/research/polic…
PCE Price Index YoY% w/Contributions from ECAN<Go>
👇👇New #WeekInEurope Podcast 👇👇 The Neutral Interest Rate: A Moving Target We discuss how the neutral rate is defined, what can affect it and how it has moved since the pandemic. Government debt supply appears to have raised it substantially. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
Atif summarizes our new paper with @VBPeral! Have a read, give us feedback, use the data etc
Happy to share new administrative data and code with the public (joint work with @VBPeral and @JADHazell ) It allows people to estimate y*: the expected long-term housing yield in real-time going forward y* equals r*, expected long-term yield on safe assets, plus long-run…
¿Con mucha inercia inflacionaria es mejor ser gradualista? Muchos sugieren que sí, pero esta notita sugiere que... No. Con suficiente inercia es mejor no ser gradualista, mejor no evitar por completo el costo de una recesión. ¿Relevante para argentina hoy? ¿Comentarios?
The US economy grew 'just' 1.6% (annualized) in Q1. Not only a big miss compared to (Bloomberg) consensus (2.5%) but also compared to the Atlanta Fed GDPnow forecast (2.7%.) More importantly, the combination of lower growth and higher inflation has a stagflationary flavor. Equity…
A speed-up in Q1 inflation has now delayed the first, and only cut this year to December
Fed Swaps No Longer Fully Price In Rate Cut Before December
US GDP Annualised (Q/Q) Q1 A: 1.6% (est 2.5%; prev 3.4%) - Core PCE Price Index (Q/Q) Q1 A: 3.7% (est 3.4%; prev 2.0%) - Personal consumption Q1 A: 2.5% (est 3.0%; prev 3.3%) - GDP Price Index Q1 A: 3.1% (est 3.0%; prev 1.6%)
NEW: US Real GDP came in at a 1.6% annualized growth rate in Q1 2024, led by a positive contribution from real consumption growth partially offset by a rise in the trade deficit Nominal GDP growth (which is unadjusted for inflation) came in at 4.8% annualized
The hope that some have that this US GDP data (below) would take some pressure off US government bond yields (and others) will be totally dashed unfortunately by another hot inflation print: Core PCE inflation came in at 3.7% for the first quarter, well above both the prior three…
OOPS, stagflationary numbers out of US! US economy expands at 1.6% rate in Q1, trailing all forecasts. Main growth engine – personal spending – rose at a slower-than-forecast 2.5% pace. BUT a closely watched measure of underlying inflation advanced at a greater-than-expected 3.7%…
🇨🇭 The benefits of a weaker currency! The Swiss National Bank recorded its largest quarterly profit ever in Q1. CHF 58.8bn of which 52.4bn on FX positions thanks to the weaker Franc, and 8.9bn on Gold. snb.ch/en/publication…
But before the Cantons get too excited, let's not forget the SNB is going to rebuild reserves for some time, having recorded a loss of CHF 132bn in 2022.
Read our #EconomicBulletin to learn how HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX) can be broken down into contributions from energy-sensitive and wage-sensitive items ecb.europa.eu/press/economic…
Good chart below
Read our #EconomicBulletin to learn how HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX) can be broken down into contributions from energy-sensitive and wage-sensitive items ecb.europa.eu/press/economic…
The American support package brings support back to earlier levels. Europe still needs to step up. Ukraine tracker update just out 👇🏻👇🏻 Big thanks to @Ch_Trebesch & team for an exceptional public good.
📢Ukraine Tracker update: The new US aid package is large, but no game changer. It will help to bring Western support back to the level of early 2023, but only for about 6 months. Europe remains in lead on overall support, but did NOT fill the gap left by the US. What else? 1/8
Trends for United States
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