Lyle Goldstein @lylegoldstein
Director, Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities. I am an expert on both China and Russia, as well as security issues across the Asia-Pacific and Eurasia. Joined October 2021-
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Interesting wording on brief note regarding Chinese carrier Shandong active in Taiwan Strait last Nov. Jianchuan Zhishi-China, 1.2024. It calls this part of a "encircling Taiwan" exercise and observes that such activities have "already become normalized."
"'[The F-16s] will not be able to conduct combat operations due to lack of specialized infrastructure and due to small number of aircraft...The fate of Leopard and Abrams tanks awaits them. If they appear, they will be shot down immediately,' Matviychuk said."Izvestiya-Rus, 26Apr
Report from PLA Navy Type 075 Hainan. Dangdai Haijun, 7.2023. Report focuses on challenges of command and training aboard China's very first large amphibious attack ship. The clear emphasis is applying "informatization" to conducting modern "3-dimensional amphibious operations."
Honored to discuss contemporary security issues @pritzkerlibrary with great thinkers like Geoffrey Till, @ProfPaulPoast, and @EmmaMAshford tomorrow in Chicago. I am speaking in the afternoon. It looks to be a fascinating dialogue.
Chinese Navy reports on commissioning of US Navy's Virginia-class SSN USS Iowa. Dangdai Haijun, 7.2023. The note at the bottom says production is sluggish due to contradictions in US defense industrial base that will not be resolved in the short term.
Russia's "combat icebreaker" ready for sea-trials: "The ships of Project 23550 have a hull with characteristic icebreaker lines with a reinforced bow and bottom. Ice class – Arc7. The ship is able to overcome ice up to 1.7 m thick."VO-26Apr. Capable of carrying ASCMs, yes.
Chinese strategists study Australian defense modernization, including (photo) of new "Ghost Shark" extra large UUV. GFB-China, 26Apr, p4. The age of warfare between fleets of robotic submarines is fast arriving. When will we glimpse China's prototype?
Ukraine's Downfall: Untrained Soldiers Defense Priorities Panel discussion: Can U.S. military aid to Ukraine turn the tide? #ukraine #ukrainewar #ukrainerussiawar #Biden #Trump @defpriorities @mpdimino see full vid: youtube.com/watch?v=7yD_44…
PLA Navy studies Battle of Leyte Gulf (Oct 1944). Dangdai Haijun-China, 11.2023. Discussion notes Japanese quite successful in baiting Americans, as Adm. Halsey famously took US forces north, leaving landing forces exposed. Japan's difficulty in coordinating forces also noted.
Russian talking heads discuss China-Russia relations on the eve of SecState Blinken's visit to Beijing. Channel1-Rus, 23Apr. They played up a new naval cooperation agreement and also regularized security services coordination.
"Why does the US want to make a normal visit look like an 'ultimatum?' The most fundamental reason is that the US has not yet established a correct understanding of China...We hope that the US will stay clear enough and avoid any misjudgments."GT-China, 23Apr
"...failure to repair in time leads to increased losses [of US F-35s]...Parts of F-35 fighter jet are supplied by many countries. Delays in parts...and insufficient supply often occur, causing the fighter jets to be grounded and increasing maintenance costs."GFB-China, 24Apr,p4
"Supplies of Pantsir anti-aircraft missile and gun systems to the troops will almost double this year...Shoigu said...These complexes received new radar with an active phased array, as a result, the target detection range increased from 32–36 km to 75 km." Izvestiya-Rus, 23Apr
Notional PLA Navy carrier battle group. Jianchuan Zhishi-China, 1.2024. Chinese Navy is on the cusp of a new era with deployment of third big deck sans ski jump. When will first Chinese carrier battle group sortie into the Indian Ocean? Or the Atlantic?
Chinese hackers preparing 'bold and unrelenting' attacks on U.S. infrastructure: FBI — In a @TND article, @lylegoldstein emphasizes the need for neutral academic scrutiny of evidence regarding potential conflicts between the U.S. and China. ow.ly/ocNv50Rl8KX
Sub force video discusses Qingdao Sub Academy training and also deployment of UUV. Zhongguo Junwang, 22Apr. A recent article in Internat. Security claimed Taiwan is akin to Iceland in forming ASW barrier like GIUK gap. I disagree. Iceland is not located 90 miles off USSR.
"On the front sector near Chasov Yar, the Russian Armed Forces are intensively advancing and improving the tactical position. The Russian military crossed the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal in a forested area on the south-eastern outskirts of the village." Reportyor-Rus, 22Apr
"Military leading cadres...serve as the vanguard in preparing for war. It is necessary to...strengthen the concept of facing powerful enemies, the concept of fighting at any time, and...do not act as a 'peace officer' ...There must be no 'peace disease.'" PLA Daily, 22Apr, p7.
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Another important corrective - to the view that China-Russia ties (incl geo-economic) are shallow. They started from a low base but the trajectory is solid and forces driving it are powerful.
For this week's Chaguan I visited a future Russian outpost in China's most advanced spaceport. Beware the comforting notion that mutual distrust will always keep China and Russia from growing too close. Ties are deepening and growing more permanent. economist.com/china/2024/04/…
Well, it's arrived. I am quite chuffed, officially out on 7 May. Despite the title, it's as much about fish as Moby Dick is about a whale. I use fish to show maritime contestation in the Indo-Pacific, offering a new model called 'Four Oceans' - to open the aperture on thinking…
Tune in this afternoon at 1 PM ET for this expert panel! We'll be live here: youtube.com/watch?v=7yD_44…
Excited to moderate a timely and star-studded panel tomorrow on all things #Russia and #Ukraine. Will new aid make an impact? Can Ukraine turn things around? Join me, Dr. @jekavanagh Dr. @ka_grieco and Lt. Col. (Ret) @DanielLDavis1 on 4/24 at 1:00 PM EST: youtube.com/@defensepriori…
💢This is a new low even for Niall Ferguson: - Realists who channel the spirit of George Washington are dismissed as Isolationist Hobbits. - Ferguson is America's Gandalf, showing us the path to Mordor. - Conservatives must embrace their inner Sam & Frodo and leave their…
Ukraine isn’t a U.S. ally. Taiwan isn’t a U.S. ally. Even Israel isn’t a U.S. ally. Stop saying otherwise.
NYT: “The resumption of large-scale military aid from the United States all but ensures that the war will be unfinished in Ukraine when Americans go to the polls in November.” So with GOP help — including Trump — Biden gets a $61 billion re-election donation and Ukraine gets a…
The Biomimetic Flapping Wing Air Vehicle developed by Northwestern Polytechnical University of China - Little Falcon
Noam Chomsky responded to Rachel Riley's claim that he is a "promoter of antisemitism" in 2021.
Isn’t liberalism about grappling with your opponent’s actual best arguments? I miss that liberalism.
No @ElbridgeColby @HawleyMO is just another treasonous proMoscow #SurrenderMonkey™️ who thinks a conservative fascist America should be BFFs with a conservative fascist Europe dominated by conservative fascist Putin. Please exit America by the tradesman’s door anytime,…
1/7 Delighted + honored to share the news of my appointment as Senior Fellow for Asian Security w/ The National Bureau of Asian Research @NBRnews Looking forward to working with NBR's amazing team! More details and other professional developments for me in the following thread.
The level of absolutism + vitriol is way too high on far too many natsec issues these days--at precisely the time we need more nuance, pragmatism, and humility. This is a thoroughly unfair attack on a moderate + balanced piece trying to get at historical facts
A superb take down, @dszeligowski. Particularly pernicious is that (a) one of the authors, in particular, has a history of urging the West to abandon Ukraine; (b) this resembles a standard pro-Soviet Cold War narrative - its the West’s fault. It wasn’t, and it isn’t. @debski
A couple of thoughts after Israel's impressive BMD performance: 1. Iran's missiles =/= China's missiles. Not even close. Think hypersonics to take out BMD batteries first, plus lots of jamming, decoys, chaff, maneuvering warheads, etc.
Folks, I am delighted to announce that I've joined @CNA_org as an associate research analyst. Looking forward to learning from a terrific group of people!
@DouthatNYT please read more @lylegoldstein and @jessicacweiss. It will save you from writing a mea culpa column in the NYT over Taiwan policy after WW3.
Two of our greatest @USArmy Generals—George Marshall and Joe Stillwell—lived in Tianjin and worked in this building while serving in China in the 1920s and 30s. They both learned Mandarin Chinese and became pivotal partners of the Chinese people during the Second World War.
A wonderful piece in NYT Opinion by @fstockman about our podcast Face-Off: US vs China. Hope it moves you to download and listen, and write a review so we get an audience. Listen here: rb.gy/3fve6x
Episode 1 of my new podcast #FaceOff with Rana Mitter is live. It features Admiral Scott Swift of the U.S. Pacific Fleet. In 2001 an American spy plane and a Chinese fighter jet collided. Tensions between the countries are much higher now. Would a similar collision result in war?
👀 will be watching for this one.
It is rumored that China has made a breakthrough in the nuclear reactor of small submarines. The Type 041 small nuclear submarine is expected to start construction at the Jiangnan Shipyard in 2024 and be launched in 2025. It is based on the existing conventional submarines.