Samuel Charap @scharap
Senior Political Scientist, @RANDCorporation. Co-Author, Everyone Loses https://t.co/y8cHhiDh0w rand.org/about/people/c… Washington, DC Joined June 2010-
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.@scharap and @DrRadchenko discuss an overlooked episode of the war in Ukraine—the intense diplomacy involving Moscow, Kyiv, and a host of other actors that could have resulted in a settlement just weeks after the war began: trib.al/2si8HJD
In the spring of 2022, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators began working on the text of a treaty but failed to finalize a deal, write @scharap and @DrRadchenko. How close were Moscow and Kyiv to ending the war—and why did talks break down? trib.al/5LEAfPI
In the spring of 2022, Moscow and Kyiv sat down to outline a settlement that would have ended the war in Ukraine. @scharap and @DrRadchenko examine draft agreements exchanged between the two sides—and the lessons of these failed talks: trib.al/fqdsCMb
If you haven’t read it yet though it seems the piece is being widely read.
If you haven’t read it yet though it seems the piece is being widely read.
@Andreas_Hopf Someone asked me in a tv interview a couple of days ago whether I was worried that the article would help Putin’s propaganda. My answer was that if we worried about how Putin’s propaganda would twist our argument, we couldn’t say anything at all. The purpose of our article was to…
Now to the Polish role. The screenshot presented here by @dszeligowski (evidently posted to highlight that the author of the thread knows his stuff) actually supports our narrative. It is an early version of the draft treaty on security guarantees. In fact, it appears to predate…
First, about the article. Our article with @scharap constructs a very complex set of arguments, so if you agree or disagree with the article, it's useful to explain what aspect of the argument you agree or disagree with. - That at the negotiators prepared the text of a draft…
So allow me to respond to this in detail because this is very interesting. First, the argument that "I know quite a few people in the loop and everyone of them disagrees with the article" is completely unconvincing, and can be easily countered with the following equally…
So allow me to respond to this in detail because this is very interesting. First, the argument that "I know quite a few people in the loop and everyone of them disagrees with the article" is completely unconvincing, and can be easily countered with the following equally…
In spring 2022, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators began working on the text of a treaty to end the war, but diplomatic efforts ultimately broke down. @scharap and @DrRadchenko examine the key takeaways of these talks: trib.al/4CfZwKE
In spring 2022, Moscow, Kyiv, and other actors were making substantial progress toward a treaty—but they never finalized a deal, write @scharap and @DrRadchenko. What are the key takeaways of these talks—and how might they shape future negotiations? trib.al/6umYvmg
OK I wasn't going to endlessly add to this list but since @APHClarkson asked why we "avoided the issue of territorial concessions": x.com/APHClarkson/st…. No, we did not avoid the issue of territorial concessions, and in fact tackled the question head-on (see the highlighted…
OK I wasn't going to endlessly add to this list but since @APHClarkson asked why we "avoided the issue of territorial concessions": x.com/APHClarkson/st…. No, we did not avoid the issue of territorial concessions, and in fact tackled the question head-on (see the highlighted… https://t.co/sBm19TfP8l
I think this covers most critiques. It was great working with Sam on this super-interesting story. I usually dig in more ancient past, and it was great to dip one's toes in something that we all remember very well, and continue to violently disagree about. It was also great to…
Several people noted that the evidence as presented in the article did not always coincide with our arguments. Folks, this is so by design. The purpose of this article was to present the evidence, and by god we did it with great care and attention to (often neglected) detail.…
Indeed, one of the big arguments of the article is that once Zelensky realized that the Russians could be defeated on the battlefield, he soured on the whole business of a negotiated outcome, and who can blame him, now that we know Putin's conditions? I can't, personally. But…
A lot of digital ink was spilled on the question of Putin's motivations, in particular: did he negotiate in good faith, and could he be trusted. Could it be, for instance, as my dear SAIS colleague @eugene_finkel points out, that Putin's goal never changed: that he wanted to…
Ok, let's address some of the other criticism. Some have argued that the fact that Putin appointed Medinsky as the head of the delegation indicates that he was not seriously interested in negotiations because Medinsky was not senior enough / a demagogue / a clown (choose your…
This thread here by @dszeligowski was interesting, I thought. x.com/dszeligowski/s…. Poland's role in the talks is indeed worth exploring. I would say Poland's role in the Ukrainian calculus was not all that important, however. The US loomed (and continues to loom) much larger,…
This thread here by @dszeligowski was interesting, I thought. x.com/dszeligowski/s…. Poland's role in the talks is indeed worth exploring. I would say Poland's role in the Ukrainian calculus was not all that important, however. The US loomed (and continues to loom) much larger,… https://t.co/zbpCNvPZ03
The level of absolutism + vitriol is way too high on far too many natsec issues these days--at precisely the time we need more nuance, pragmatism, and humility. This is a thoroughly unfair attack on a moderate + balanced piece trying to get at historical facts
The level of absolutism + vitriol is way too high on far too many natsec issues these days--at precisely the time we need more nuance, pragmatism, and humility. This is a thoroughly unfair attack on a moderate + balanced piece trying to get at historical facts
It's time to address some of the points raised by the esteemed commentariat. But, first of all, thank you for your engagement. @scharap and I expected that the article would be of interest, and we were certainly not disappointed.
It's time to address some of the points raised by the esteemed commentariat. But, first of all, thank you for your engagement. @scharap and I expected that the article would be of interest, and we were certainly not disappointed.
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95K Followers 1K Following President, Kyiv School of Economics; Minister of economy, Ukraine, 2019-2020; Associate professor, University of Pittsburgh@DrRadchenko @scharap мне очень понравилось! от первого слова до пасхалки в конце)
It's time to address some of the points raised by the esteemed commentariat. But, first of all, thank you for your engagement. @scharap and I expected that the article would be of interest, and we were certainly not disappointed.
In spring 2022, Moscow, Kyiv, and other actors were making substantial progress toward a treaty—but they never finalized a deal, write @scharap and @DrRadchenko. What are the key takeaways of these talks—and how might they shape future negotiations? trib.al/6umYvmg
I think this covers most critiques. It was great working with Sam on this super-interesting story. I usually dig in more ancient past, and it was great to dip one's toes in something that we all remember very well, and continue to violently disagree about. It was also great to…
@DrRadchenko @scharap Thanks, @DrRadchenko; this is very helpful. The empirical underpinning is so important in this instance because the larger question (of Putin's intent then and now) is so important. Thanks to you and @scharap for helping to frame this pivotal conversation.
2/ If the "one of the authors" remark is meant to apply to my good friend Sam, it's totally baseless. He does not and has never advocated "abandoning Ukraine." He is clear-eyed on the nature of Putin's Russia. The problem isn't his ideas--it's the fact that increasingly,
The level of absolutism + vitriol is way too high on far too many natsec issues these days--at precisely the time we need more nuance, pragmatism, and humility. This is a thoroughly unfair attack on a moderate + balanced piece trying to get at historical facts
A superb take down, @dszeligowski. Particularly pernicious is that (a) one of the authors, in particular, has a history of urging the West to abandon Ukraine; (b) this resembles a standard pro-Soviet Cold War narrative - its the West’s fault. It wasn’t, and it isn’t. @debski
Oh, I see our article with @scharap has caused a lively discussion on this platform. I just thought it might! Here's a pay-wall-free link: foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-…. Do take a look if you haven't yet. If I get a chance perhaps later today, I will engage with some of the…
The ELN would like to congratulate @YGLNtweets member @scharap on his new appointment and wishes him well in this new and exciting role 👏
Happy to announce that I've been named Inaugural Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy @RANDCorporation. I appreciate the vote of confidence and look forward to continuing RAND's long tradition of important work on the region.
Maybe European politicians can just, you know, be quiet for a bit and talk amongst each other? Just a thought. #EuropeanDefence #StrategicAmbiguityshouldntbediscussedtodeath
I notice some particularly memorable tweets from over the summer about how the offensive was going exactly as planned have been deleted. I take no joy in this. But remember that when your analysis becomes overcome by cheerleading, you end up hurting the cause you set out to help
This is what happens when you're so open-minded that your brains fall out
What I find remarkable is that when Hunka was introduced as someone who "fought the Russians in the Second World War", all MPs mindlessly rose to their feet and applauded, seemingly forgetting the the Russians were on our side in World War II. #cdnpoli cbc.ca/news/politics/…
It's 2017 all over again, huh? wsj.com/politics/natio…
You couldn't make it up
So not only did the husband of Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas maintain business interests in Russia after the war, but those interests were also connected with a company that supplies Russian and Belarusian law enforcement agencies with tear gas. epl.delfi.ee/artikkel/12022…
Also @AngelaStent and @samagreene etc, but don't forget those outside of academia with Ph.Ds, like @MSnegovaya, Columbia, @AKendallTaylor UCLA, @scharap, Oxford, @MarkGaleotti LSE, etc. who use their training in their commentary.
@andrewmichta Of Russianists, Stanford's @McFaul is a major (or perhaps the major) academic speaking to a wider audience. UCLA's @dstreisman has contributed a lot, and Henry Hale. Columbia's @timothymfrye contributes. I am a theorist academically, so the audience is obviously limited, but we…
For those of you new to this media environment. The main sources of info are an army that lies about everything; a warlord who owns an infamous troll factory and lied about it for years; and the Kremlin. And Russia destroyed the media, so there aren't any good independent sources
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