Decker Eveleth @dex_eve
@JamesMartinCNS GRA. @MIIS, @NSF GRFP. @reed_college_ alum. "Normally I have to pay people to do that" - @US_Stratcom @[email protected] aboyandhis.blog Monterey CA Joined September 2016-
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One very interesting aspect of modern activism is that the internet and the speed of communication has taken all power away from major activist organizations to select the face of a movement. Movement leaders are chosen for you, and that has backfired spectacularly for many.
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I know that we occasionally have to have this debate about the philosophy of Fallout New Vegas but I always thought that the fact that all the leaders in Fallout New Vegas were kind of dumb one of the most realistic aspects of the game.
Have to issue a mea culpa on a now deleted tweet. I made a process error that led to some incorrect conclusions being drawn.
Its extremely funny that people are complaining about retconning in Warhammer 40K, possibly the most retconned franchise in history. Major stuff gets retconned every year.
Another thought: A robust IRGC-AF missile force could probably sate Iranian desire for nukes as an effective missile force could deter a lot of threats with conventional means. Does failure of True Promise compromise Iranian conventional deterrence? I don't know.
Folks, I am delighted to announce that I've joined @CNA_org as an associate research analyst. Looking forward to learning from a terrific group of people!
I do wonder how much the Israeli nuclear force's lack of visibility impacts their ability to deter imminent threats. With DPRK, the US can visibly threaten with aerospace forces. Israel can't (or, more specifically, is unwilling to incur the political fallout)
In fairness, we've also been arguing for 78 years how to even measure "deterrence" and if measuring it is even possible
In fairness, we've also been arguing for 78 years how to even measure "deterrence" and if measuring it is even possible
Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk
107K Followers 2K Following Professor at @MIIS, staff at @JamesMartinCNS, host of the @ACWpodcast & member of @StateDept Int’l Security Advisory Board. All opinions are my own.
Ankit Panda @nktpnd
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James Palmer @BeijingPalmer
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Evergreen Intel @vcdgf555
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Martin “Doomsday”.. @NuclearAnthro
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forcefemmed calvinist @Sharon_Kuruvila
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@Rupprecht_A @RupprechtDeino
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Alex Luck @AlexLuck9
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Open Source Stupidity.. @IRHotTakes
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Jamie Withorne @jamiewithorne
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Martin “Doomsday”.. @NuclearAnthro
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forcefemmed calvinist @Sharon_Kuruvila
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Federation of America.. @scientistsorg
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derek guy @dieworkwear
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@dex_eve Since .ir leadership was unlikely to forgo nuclear aspirations for the slender reed of conventional precision, this may have only mattered to a different regime type.
"We should build way more then" Yeah sure, you should write your Congressman That statement is the defense policy equivalent of a toddler throwing a temper tantrum, and just about as effective in the long run
@dex_eve All valid points, and not to be ignored. In the long term yes, a cost effective defense is needed but I think the lopsided economics in this situation favor Israel and the Western countries. If Iran persists their ability to mount attacks will disappear.
Booooooooo...
“Oh boy I sure hope the Fallout Amazon TV show pays homage to the older Fallout games and New Vegas” *Monkey Paw Curls*
Happy to announce that I've been named Inaugural Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy @RANDCorporation. I appreciate the vote of confidence and look forward to continuing RAND's long tradition of important work on the region.
Senior political scientist @scharap has been selected to serve as our inaugural Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy. bit.ly/43S8i2B
The most terrifying words in the English language are: "MIT Professor Emeritus Theodore 'Ted' Postol has done the math for us"
Why does she insist on calling everything nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable?? Yes we get it, the ICBM has a nuclear payload. Its not like anyone is running around with conventional ICBMs to begin with
If her Area 51 book is any guide (more precisely the conclusion thereof), we should fear the worst.
I haven't read @AnnieJacobsen's book yet, but I'm eagerly anticipating its arrival in my mailbox. However, this excerpt has raised some significant alarm bells. Firstly, Ted Postol has been a regular contributor to Russia Today prior to the war, and is known for denying any…
@Alexz2020Vision @danzwku @MsMelChen Sorry I missed this! There are so many great folks to follow - off the top of my head: @detresfa_ @JosephWen___ @michaelsobolik @mike_mazza @dex_eve @MikeBlack114 @alessionaval @JaimeOcon1 I will make a longer list soon!
@ColinZwirko @dex_eve That was my take on it as well, not fully eliminating liquid
This might be a translation error. The original Korean suggests something a lot more sensible: "이로써 우리는 각이한 사거리의 모든 전술,작전,전략급미싸일들의 고체연료화,탄두조종화,핵무기화를 완전무결하게 실현함으로써"
By FAR the most eye catching thing is KCNA announcing that they're moving to only using solid-fuel missiles. This is very surprising as they showed March 16th plant producing liquid-fuel TELs some months ago. Where are the 15s and 17s going? Critical question.
@dex_eve The original Korean version sounds more like boasting that "all" missile types and ranges have "solid-fuel-ized, maneuverable warhead-ized and nuclearized" versions now to give this fast, worldwide attack ability, but no claim of eliminating liquid types
"That's really weird" - Decker Eveleth, 2024
Also, for short distances, one of the hardest accelerating ships ever designed.
Not the prettiest ship in the fleet: The Italian Auxiliary Monitor Monte Sabotino. The ship was armed with a single 15" gun that fired a 1,949-pound shell to a range of 21,000 yards. WW1
@dex_eve Good thread. My concern is that China may feel very differently about adopting such an approach. What do you think?
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