David Shor @davidshor
Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami. I try to elect Democrats. Views are my own. he/him🌹 blueroseresearch.org New York, NY Joined November 2007-
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If you have the relevant skills, this is a way to really directly contribute to saving the country and you should do it —>
If you have the relevant skills, this is a way to really directly contribute to saving the country and you should do it —>
Super excited to announce new openings for SOFTWARE ENGINEERS ahead of the 2024 cycle. This is a great opportunity to work on cutting edge machine learning problems for the biggest groups in the Democratic party!
Democrats gain in congressional elections when policy moves rightward & Republicans gain when policy moves too far leftward, but this does not fully account for the president's midterm penalty Our newly accepted article: researchgate.net/publication/38…
When is LLMs' #AlphaGOZero moment? Imagine #LLMs self-evolving without human supervision 🔥🔥🔥 Through #selfplay in an adversarial language game 🕹️, we observe continuous improvements in LLM reasoning 🚀. #AGI is getting closer! Check our paper at arxiv.org/abs/2404.10642!
It's difficult to explain advanced hyperdimensional quantum European racism to Americans but: not only is this the racist candidate, these are literally her #1 most racist supporters
It's difficult to explain advanced hyperdimensional quantum European racism to Americans but: not only is this the racist candidate, these are literally her #1 most racist supporters https://t.co/0ZY6D547ud
@davidshor @UCBerkeley @BrankoMilan Yes! Here is the 2008-18 version. While I like the long time span of the original -- it's very hard to measure global inequality shifts over short time spans -- the update is another good reason to be optimistic. stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu/files/2024/01/…
Young American men commit much fewer crimes than previous generations did at the same age. academic.oup.com/bjc/article-ab…
@omnius_eacc @burny_tech Most voters are just very authoritarian relative to what exists in elite social circles and what’s happening is that the institutions that were built to suppress those views from being expressed politically have been subverted by technological and demographic change.
@omnius_eacc @burny_tech Most voters are just very authoritarian relative to what exists in elite social circles and what’s happening is that the institutions that were built to suppress those views from being expressed politically have been subverted by technological and demographic change.
@omnius_eacc @burny_tech The idea that the political disruption we’re seeing across the west is due to our dysfunctional institutions (IE, academia, science, etc) is quite popular among tech folks and rationalists but it really is completely wrong.
Our first experiment gave voters a series of campaign leaflets headlines to find out which voters were most likely to read on. MaxDiff analysis then shows leaflets leading on culture war topics were generally *far less likely* to be read than those on bread/butter issues
Sadly, you do in fact need to say Joe Biden's name to persuade voters to vote for him. No cheat codes or shortcuts here. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Hey you! You should check out this cool new paper. "War Causes Religiosity" The authors scraped web images of hundreds of thousands of gravestones of deceased U.S. Americans. People who were randomly drafted into war are at least 20% more likely to have religious gravestones
@poiThePoi @Chuck3737 @MrRBourne But I will say that the US simultaneously becoming more equal in terms of income inequality and pulling away in terms of per capita growth from the rest of the OECD in the past ten years is not something that I (or anyone else I think?) expected and we should try to learn policy…
@Chuck3737 @MrRBourne There’s an age old question about the inequality/growth trade-off that I won’t speak to, but one concrete way that high p90/p10 ratios hurt the US is that it makes providing high quality public services much more expensive, because the opportunity cost from the private sector is…
As one would expect from an ancestrally Democratic area, there are a number of Democratic county officials in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. However, these Dem officeholders are not evenly distributed as their presence aligns with higher concentrations of Finnish-Americans.
Very interesting study. 31% of the UK electorate are "homo-nativists": Positive on homosexuality, negative on immigration Something that is increasingly apparent in many nationalist parties in Europe (France and the Netherlands especially) blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
"In 2008, just 10% of Hispanic immigrants identified as Protestants. By 2022, this share had nearly doubled to 19%. Meanwhile, the percentage identifying as Catholic saw a significant decline, falling from 65% to just 47%" via @ryanburge
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
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Super excited to announce new openings for SOFTWARE ENGINEERS ahead of the 2024 cycle. This is a great opportunity to work on cutting edge machine learning problems for the biggest groups in the Democratic party!
high level math: "imagine a thing. now imagine that it's weird."
A lot of people go into politics because they dream of one day contributing in some small way to the construction or passage of seminal legislation like the clean water act. Then they get to DC and spend their entire careers working on bills like this
@wanyeburkett People will just pretend that they see impropriety. I’ve been alive long enough that I have constantly seen the right seize on any story they can find to claim fraud
SSRIs are bad for most people
79% of psychiatrists would recommend immediate treatment with an antidepressant for a depressed patient – but only 39% would take that path themselves. Most would opt instead for watchful waiting. doi.org/10.1192/bjp.bp…
Venture capitalists need to stop engaging with founders in bad faith, this sort of thing is no longer viable behavior in a fundraising ecosystem where founders and aligned funders all talk about who is and is not worth taking a meeting with
pisses me off when i say the deal terms up front to save time, then i take the meeting and they still waver on that / some bs about portfolio construction or partners or mandates or whatever recommend blowing them off at the first sign of flip flopping and just getting back to…
@deLisserRobin @larryvc @jposhaughnessy yoo i didn’t have 2 phds at 19 i never graduated from my phd prog which i started (at 17) thank you for the enthusiasm tho
@Andrew___Baker Some elevators allow it. If you click it twice very quickly, it unclicks.
@Andrew___Baker They can already do this in China
You should be able to un click elevator buttons
upon closer inspection this couch surfing host appears to be just a normal iranian guy living in norway with an unfortunate birth year
"A consistent finding is that trade reforms have had a positive impact on economic growth, on average, although the effect is heterogeneous across countries." academic.oup.com/wbro/advance-a…
When Hawaii banned noncompetes for tech workers in 2015, new hire wages rose 4%. jhr.uwpress.org/content/57/S/S…
The most immediate effect of a ban on non-competes will be to reduce wages. Maybe worthwhile due to possible positive effects on innovation. marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu…
One index for whether media outlets’ demands for more Biden interviews are motivated by genuine curiosity vs ego or self-interest is whether they think the content of the high-profile interview he did today is newsworthy.
I would do it for free and write a book
You'd have to pay me like $80m a year to be the president of an Ivy League university.
By taking this job you get a chance to save America AND get invited to David's awesome raging NYC parties with free Costco hard seltzer (even @bendreyfuss doesn't get to go to those)
Super excited to announce new openings for SOFTWARE ENGINEERS ahead of the 2024 cycle. This is a great opportunity to work on cutting edge machine learning problems for the biggest groups in the Democratic party!
Ok. It turns out this is bullshit. This is the average of the top 5%, which includes the top 1% incomes and with the weight of the super high earners exceeds the cutoff for the top 1%. Top 5% cutoff is 187k.
He really asked his haters to be his waiters at the table of success
Okay losers time to put your money where your mouth is secure.actblue.com/donate/cancels…
@BeijingPalmer I have worked with elected leaders from statewide to Congress to Tribal presidents. It is absolutely true. I have seen far less eligible bachelors in far less fun times than the 1970s get insanely propositioned.
Biden was literally one of the most famous bachelors in DC. He was the youngest senator and a tragic widower.
There's no way this one isn't true lol, this happens quite often to famous people Reminder that young Biden looked like this