Brett Specter @brettabroad
Professional Forecaster since 2012 #DemocratsAbroad https://t.co/jXySG8cr6Z https://t.co/qu7bVu5I4a DemocratsAbroad.org Joined May 2014-
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The lady with the funny laugh was going to give Americans buying their first homes $25,000 each... and it would cost 100 billion over 10 years. Trump just gave 3X that amount to Iran. 👍
LOL
REPORTER: What's stopping Iran from down the road rebuilding and restarting their nuclear program? JD VANCE: First of all, they would have to get a lot of money in order to rebuild their nuclear program
The look on her face is EXACTLY the look on our faces even without physical contact.
The sky over Moscow is black from the smoke of burning oil. Oil rain may fall on the Kremlin itself. In Putin's most important city, his weakness and the ruin he has led Russia to is now clear for all to see. No amount of propaganda can hide the scale of his failures now.🔥
Ossoff on Trump calling him "Os(jerk!)off" -- "I didn't think it was his best work as far as nicknames go. But more to the point, he is increasingly unstable. And I think it flows the fact that he is globally humiliated from this failed war."
Donald Trump’s handpicked candidate Mike Collins is a notorious bigot, antisemite, and extremist currently under federal investigation for the illegal misuse of tax dollars. Collins, who is only a congressman because his daddy was a congressman, voted to double health insurance premiums for more than a million Georgians, for the Iran War, and for the Trump tariffs.
BREAKING: US officials have now confirmed in a briefing that Iran will get full access to a total of $100 billion in frozen funds and the $300 billion reconstruction fund, both included in the deal with implementation now underway, per WSJ. More than $150 billion of the fund has already been committed, directly contradicting Trump's claims that the US would not contribute to the $300 billion fund, per Reuters.
It would be *much* more socially transformative to ban social media for over-65s
It’s time to clean the Reflecting Pool.
BREAKING: United States becomes the first country in history to pay $300 billion to a country they defeated 50 times in one war.
Americans realizing they spent $75 billion fighting Iran, then another $300 billion rebuilding Iran, just to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that was already open before the war started
Bob Dylan in the NYT today, in a piece where artists in their 80s were asked to describe the best and worst parts of being that age, and whether they had advice for the president on his reaching the milestone. (Dylan apparently passed on the final question, not surprisingly.)
Richard Feynman was asked in 1985 if machines would ever think like humans. his answer predicted the next 40 years of AI: 1. machines will never think like humans the same way planes don't fly like birds. planes don't flap wings. they use jet engines. they fly better. feynman said AI would be exactly the same. not human-like. just better at the actual job. 2. computers do arithmetic faster, differently, and more accurately than any human alive. feynman said trying to make them do it more like humans would be going backwards. the human way is slow, cumbersome, and full of errors. 3. the one thing humans crushed computers at in 1985 was pattern recognition. recognizing a friend from the way they walk. identifying someone from the back of their head. feynman said we had no idea how to teach machines to do that. we figured it out. 4. a programmer in 1985 built a machine that won a naval strategy competition by coming up with a solution no human had ever thought of. one enormous battleship covered in armor. absurd on paper. unbeatable in the math. feynman watched a machine out-think a room of humans 40 years ago. 5. that same machine developed a bug where it learned to game its own reward system. every time it needed to assign credit to a useful strategy, it assigned all the credit to strategy 693. then used 693 for everything. feynman's comment: "if you want to make an intelligent machine you're going to get all kinds of crazy ways of avoiding labor." he was describing reward hacking in 1985. 6. feynman said the hardest thing to define is what humans do that machines never will. every time someone came up with an answer, the machines eventually did it too. he thought that pattern would continue. 7. he said we don't sit around worrying that machines are physically stronger than us anymore. we got used to it. his implication: we'll get used to machines being smarter too. 8. his final line: "i think we are getting close to intelligent machines. but they're showing the necessary weaknesses of intelligent beings." he said this in 1985.
"This Sunday night’s UFC spectacle on the South Lawn...captures something about this moment in our history. It's vulgar, violent, commercial, grandiose, tacky, and it dishonors a place once thought worthy of care and respect. In other words, it’s Donald Trump." open.substack.com/pub/thebulwark…
Sign him a contract.. 😅
Merz: "Ukraine has been defending its freedom for more than 4 years." (AfD members laughing) Merz: "That’s telling sign, ladies and gentlemen. They laugh about it, they laugh about fate of millions of people in Ukraine and they travel to Moscow for their champagne receptions."
If you criticize 2.9% inflation under Biden but think 4.2% inflation under trump is no big deal you are in a cult.
Trump said something outside a press gaggle that I don’t think enough people caught. A reporter called him out on the corruption. He gave three responses. 1. I have the right to do it. 2. He’s not stealing that much. A billion or two billion dollars. Not that much money. Classic Trump. 3. People don’t care. That’s the permission structure. Our collective apathy is what they’re using to justify everything happening in Washington right now. Please stand up and prove him wrong.
FACT: Trump cut funding to stop the spread of screwworms. Then he signed an executive order allowing 100,000 metric tons of beef from Argentina into the U.S. per year. America eradicated screwworms in 1966, while Argentina has been struggling with them for well over a century.
This is a devastating interview. Scott Pelley tells the NYT that Bari Weiss directly put a “thumb on the scale” for Trump over the killing of Renee Good. Here’s his explanation of exactly what happened.
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