RacetotheWH @RacetotheWH
RacetotheWH predicts elections and tracks the latest polling. In 2022, it led all forecasters in calling the highest # of Senate and Gov. Races correctly. racetothewh.com Washington D.C. Joined June 2020-
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Today, I added a half dozen major new features to the RacetotheWH Senate forecast. That includes fundraising, and a new feature showing how the race changes if Biden/Trump wins the Presidential election. racetothewh.com/senate/24
RacetotheWH House Forecast update - We now have our general election matchup set for the AL-2 between Shomari Figures (D) & Caroleene Dobson (R). We give Figures (D) an 81% chance at flipping the new district.
Polling Update for the Key 2024 Senate Races, from the RacetotheWH Polling Average
New mini-update: Our polling average now also includes a 90 day trendline for each swing state, so you can focus in on recent changes in the race.
Joe Biden now leads Donald Trump 46.4% to 45.8% in the RacetotheWH polling average, his biggest lead since August 29th.
Another new feature coming to RacetotheWH soon - every day, you'll be able to run through a new simulation of the Senate election.
Here are three new features I added today to the RacetotheWH Presidential Polling Average #1: Track how the polling has changed in each swing state in the last 45 days
Biden just took the lead in the RacetotheWH polling average for the first time since November 15th. racetothewh.com/president/poll…
Last November, Kennedy and West were earning a combined 19.2% of the vote in the RacetotheWH polling average. That has declined significantly over the last six months to just 11.4%.
2024 Senate Polling Update - Democrats are polling well in almost every competitive Senate race - with one Maryland sized exception.
Here's a sneak preview of a new feature coming to our presidential polling average at RacetotheWH
Presidential Polling Update - Since February 1st, Joe Biden has started to gain on Donald Trump in 4/6 key swing states, based on the RacetotheWH polling average. 🧵
Ann Selzer, an A+ student (In Iowa?) turning in her project and it's quite diffferent from others
Twelve days after the State of the Union, Joe Biden has cut Donald Trump's lead in half, though he still trails in the national polling average. Before: Biden 43.44% Trump 45.47% (R+2.03%) Today: Biden 44.65% Trump 45.69% (R+1.04%)
In my two years following this website, this is the closest forecast @RacetotheWH has ever produced
It's election day in Ohio, and I would not be surprised if our perfect streak at RacetotheWH of calling Senate primaries comes to an end tonight. We have Bernie Moreno slightly favored over Matt Dolan.🧵
If Joe Biden's polling improved by 2.5% in every state, how would the electoral map change? Using the RacetotheWH polling average, Biden would have a slight edge. This would be a D+1.1% national environment.
Matt Dolan is now within striking distance of Bernie Moreno in the RacetotheWH Forecast, thanks to a late surge in polling. Full Forecast -> racetothewh.com/senate/24/ohio
When the GOP wins Arizona, our Senate forecast has them taking the majority over 95% of the time. However, the race is going to be a harder win than Michigan despite AZ's redder hue, thanks to Dem's edge in candidate recruitment.
When the GOP wins Arizona, our Senate forecast has them taking the majority over 95% of the time. However, the race is going to be a harder win than Michigan despite AZ's redder hue, thanks to Dem's edge in candidate recruitment.
Here's my final prediction for the CA Senate Race - straight from the RacetotheWH Primary Forecast 🧵 Chance to Make the November Runoff: 1. Schiff (D): 87.5% 2. Garvey (R): 58.9% 3. Porter (D): 47.3% 4. Lee (D): 6.2% 5. Everyone Else: 0.0%
Logan Phillips @LoganR2WH
11K Followers 1K Following I cover politics, track polling and predict elections at RacetotheWH. In 2022, my election forecast called over 96% of races right between the House and Senate.
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11K Followers 1K Following I cover politics, track polling and predict elections at RacetotheWH. In 2022, my election forecast called over 96% of races right between the House and Senate.
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360 Followers 693 Following Do right and serve others | Advisor at the Center for Workforce and Economic Opportunity at @AtlantaFed | Opinions are mine | RTs ≠endorsements@ElectoralTardis @RacetotheWH @LoganR2WH 💯 I also like how it’s a one man show. You have to be a very talented individual to do this amount of work on your own. Major props to Logan
@Zprtr1 @RacetotheWH @LoganR2WH Yeah It is Really Cool @RacetotheWH is better than RCP Averages
A really interesting new feature from @RacetotheWH on their Senate forecast. -If Biden wins the presidency, Dems’ current odds of winning the Senate shoot up from 44%—>65% -If Trump wins, Dem odds drop to 23% As always, great work from @LoganR2WH
@admcrlsn @ElectoralEagle I use @FiveThirtyEight and @RacetotheWH for data instead of RCP Because RCP sucks
@DecisionDeskHQ now has it tied. @RacetotheWH has Biden up by 0.5 @RCPolitics hasn't updated in days and is holding onto Trump's 0.2 edge.
Anyone else notice that @RCPolitics has refused to add a new poll to the average for days now? I guess they’re just waiting for a Rasmussen poll first.
Today, I added a half dozen major new features to the RacetotheWH Senate forecast. That includes fundraising, and a new feature showing how the race changes if Biden/Trump wins the Presidential election. racetothewh.com/senate/24
Unless we get contradictory information - like a sharp rise in fundraising by the GOP, or strong GOP polling, then we'll see Democrats chances rise slowly overtime.
RacetotheWH House Forecast update - We now have our general election matchup set for the AL-2 between Shomari Figures (D) & Caroleene Dobson (R). We give Figures (D) an 81% chance at flipping the new district.
Polling Update for the Key 2024 Senate Races, from the RacetotheWH Polling Average
Joe Biden now leads Donald Trump 46.4% to 45.8% in the RacetotheWH polling average, his biggest lead since August 29th.
These are the same type of simulations that power the RacetotheWH senate forecast. Every update, I run through 50,000 simulations to get an overall forecast of how likely each party is to win the majority.
Another new feature coming to RacetotheWH soon - every day, you'll be able to run through a new simulation of the Senate election.
Here's the link for the Presidential Polling Average - and stay tuned to RacetotheWH, because we have a new interactive feature coming out on Monday that will let you see how the race changes if Biden/Trump gain in the polls. racetothewh.com/president/polls
3. I've shifted the polling average to purely focus on Biden v. Trump. It tracks the polling in all 50 states with two versions 1. Pure Biden v. Trump polls 2. Polls with 3rd Party Candidates Polling for DeSantis, Haley, and other candidates is still be preserved in a new page
#2: A new polling snapshot that provides a quick look at which candidate is leading in 12 key states.
Here are three new features I added today to the RacetotheWH Presidential Polling Average #1: Track how the polling has changed in each swing state in the last 45 days
I did this a while ago for a question I got, but the far right column is the gap between WV & MD in the cycles since they both went for Carter in 1980:
West Virginia-Maryland has to be the biggest partisan divide between two bordering states right
Biden just took the lead in the RacetotheWH polling average for the first time since November 15th. racetothewh.com/president/poll…
Last November, Kennedy and West were earning a combined 19.2% of the vote in the RacetotheWH polling average. That has declined significantly over the last six months to just 11.4%.
2024 Senate Polling Update - Democrats are polling well in almost every competitive Senate race - with one Maryland sized exception.
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