Marc-André Fongern @Fongern_FX
Associate, M&A. Frankfurt/Main. Joined July 2016-
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The JPY sits near a 34-year low; 34 years! No matter how long you've been in markets, that's just mind-boggling.
The Bank of Japan and rate hikes are like my ex-wife and me. It just doesn't match.
To cut a long story short: One of the Fed's preferred inflation indicators (PCE) is advancing faster than expected. That's all you need to know at this point.
Siri, show me the 'short JPY' positioning...
⚠️ We'll see significant central bank divergences this year in terms of rate cuts; so brace yourselves for a rollercoaster ride in FX markets.
I'm not pro-Russia, but just for the record... The IMF raises Russia's economic growth forecast, while Germany stares into the economic abyss. Sanctions are backfiring badly here.
If the Fed doesn't cut rates at all this year, or less than other G10 central banks, we'll get an even stronger USD, which creates trouble globally and especially for emerging markets. Interest rate differentials may be painful. FX markets will be lively again.
Late 2023: We'll see at least 4-5 Fed cuts next year. April 2024: We'll see at most one Fed cut this year, maybe none at all. In short: long-term forecasts were, are and always will be nonsense.
EURUSD parity? This question is currently circulating here and in the media. Even as a convinced dollar bull, I'd say stop with those exaggerations. The EUR may still weaken (interest rate differentials), but don't jump straight to extreme doomsday fantasies.
The problem isn't higher interest rates, the problem is the level of debt; the crying of the ''low interest rates forever'' guys is ridiculous.
⚠️ American Express published terrific numbers. Credit card business is booming; consumers are living on borrowed money - not sure if that's all that awesome while credit card interest rates are skyrocketing. Disaster waiting to happen.
The US economy currently provides no urgency or evidence for the Fed to cut rates at all this year; as of now, if at all, there will be only one cut. Still too much wishful thinking out there at the moment.
For fuck's sake. When it comes to rate cuts, central bankers are talking so much horseshit these days, incredibly stupid and pointless talk.
You know what's not good at all? Consumer savings are steadily shrinking, while credit card debt is ballooning.
1) Higher for longer 2) Clearly fewer Fed cuts 3) Hawkish Fed talk 4) Inflation reacceleration 5) Geopolitical risks Not exactly stimulating my risk appetite at this point.
Anyone who thought inflation was off the table has been proven wrong - if we cut rates now respectively soon, we'll get even more inflationary stubbornness. Careful what you wish for.
If the ECB cuts before the Fed, the EUR is toast. If the Fed cuts (economically unnecessary) before the ECB, US inflation would accelerate again. Times getting interesting.
2023: We'll see at least 4 Fed rate cuts in 2024. January '24: We'll see at least 3 Fed rate cuts this year. March '24: We'll see at least 2 Fed rate cuts this year. April '24: Okay, but we'll see at least one Fed rate cut. You gotta love financial markets.
I say this as an actual bull: This stock market needs a correction to become attractive again.
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4K Followers 170 Following Core-Satellite Investor | Core Investments: #ETFs | Satellites: #Trendfollowing & Wide Moat Stocks | No Financial AdviceThe JPY sits near a 34-year low; 34 years! No matter how long you've been in markets, that's just mind-boggling.
The Bank of Japan and rate hikes are like my ex-wife and me. It just doesn't match.
To cut a long story short: One of the Fed's preferred inflation indicators (PCE) is advancing faster than expected. That's all you need to know at this point.
Siri, show me the 'short JPY' positioning...
⚠️ We'll see significant central bank divergences this year in terms of rate cuts; so brace yourselves for a rollercoaster ride in FX markets.
@OilSheppard Without getting into too much detail, it's already obvious this war has hurt Germany considerably more than Russia; this includes all the scenarios arising from it (higher energy costs, inflation, interest rate increases, slump in credit demand of all sorts; I could go on & on).
I'm not pro-Russia, but just for the record... The IMF raises Russia's economic growth forecast, while Germany stares into the economic abyss. Sanctions are backfiring badly here.
If the Fed doesn't cut rates at all this year, or less than other G10 central banks, we'll get an even stronger USD, which creates trouble globally and especially for emerging markets. Interest rate differentials may be painful. FX markets will be lively again.
Late 2023: We'll see at least 4-5 Fed cuts next year. April 2024: We'll see at most one Fed cut this year, maybe none at all. In short: long-term forecasts were, are and always will be nonsense.
@WorldDlt Don't get me wrong, I'm bullish USD overall as I've mentioned, but I'm concerned with the relative weighting of those negative factors that are already priced in.
EURUSD parity? This question is currently circulating here and in the media. Even as a convinced dollar bull, I'd say stop with those exaggerations. The EUR may still weaken (interest rate differentials), but don't jump straight to extreme doomsday fantasies.
The problem isn't higher interest rates, the problem is the level of debt; the crying of the ''low interest rates forever'' guys is ridiculous.
⚠️ American Express published terrific numbers. Credit card business is booming; consumers are living on borrowed money - not sure if that's all that awesome while credit card interest rates are skyrocketing. Disaster waiting to happen.
The US economy currently provides no urgency or evidence for the Fed to cut rates at all this year; as of now, if at all, there will be only one cut. Still too much wishful thinking out there at the moment.
For fuck's sake. When it comes to rate cuts, central bankers are talking so much horseshit these days, incredibly stupid and pointless talk.
You know what's not good at all? Consumer savings are steadily shrinking, while credit card debt is ballooning.
1) Higher for longer 2) Clearly fewer Fed cuts 3) Hawkish Fed talk 4) Inflation reacceleration 5) Geopolitical risks Not exactly stimulating my risk appetite at this point.
Anyone who thought inflation was off the table has been proven wrong - if we cut rates now respectively soon, we'll get even more inflationary stubbornness. Careful what you wish for.
If the ECB cuts before the Fed, the EUR is toast. If the Fed cuts (economically unnecessary) before the ECB, US inflation would accelerate again. Times getting interesting.
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