Passed Pawn @passedpawn
Macroeconomics and Markets, Hedge Fund Mgr, Market-Maker, Venture Investor / Chess Master / @MIT engineering New York, NY Joined May 2019-
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The last mile of inflation fighting 3% -> 2% was always going to be the hardest. The longer inflation remains elevated, the more it become entrenched. The Fed may get lucky yet, but they made a mistake over the winter, declaring victory too soon. Hard choices may be upcoming.
Commodities have outperformed SPX this month after a long period of underperformance. I think it's the beginning of a trend. Commodities are undervalued relative to a rebounding industrial economy and supplies are tight. US Equities are overvalued relative to rising rates.…
Seeing lots of talk about stagflation after the GDP report. I don't buy it. The reason inflation remains firm is because of strong aggregate labor income growth, which supports consumption. Today's report showed solid consumption again. If anything, it's just a hot economy.
Equity investors trying to get through this earnings season
Nothing to see here, just a cool $135 billion wiped out in seconds. $META
I've been asked about my handle and also my new profile pic so here it goes: A passed pawn in chess is a pawn with no opposing pawns to prevent it from advancing to the eighth rank, where it can promote to a better piece, usually a queen. In the pic below, it's also a protected…
Another day, another bond market selloff. I'm not participating any more from the short side, but it really doesn't make me feel good about my risk assets.
More evidence that the recession in the goods economy ended over the winter and is providing some lift. This removes a disinflationary tailwind from last year and supports growth and hiring at the margin.
More evidence that the recession in the goods economy ended over the winter and is providing some lift. This removes a disinflationary tailwind from last year and supports growth and hiring at the margin.
Weaker than expected surveys are driving yields lower and asset prices higher in general. The important takeaway here is that the bar is now very low for incoming data to be disappointing. It has become strong consensus that growth and labor market will remain firm.
Weaker than expected surveys are driving yields lower and asset prices higher in general. The important takeaway here is that the bar is now very low for incoming data to be disappointing. It has become strong consensus that growth and labor market will remain firm.
Old fashioned shakeout in precious metals today innit
Markets often become short-term oversold and then they bounce. By itself, it's not a useful signal as to where we are going. Below is the 2022 bear market with lots of oversold bounces.
Alright so now that everyone got what they wanted, who's *not* looking to sell this rally at some point?
Alright so now that everyone got what they wanted, who's *not* looking to sell this rally at some point?
Freight rates have been falling steadily since the January spike which was mostly Red Sea related. I expect this to provide a little relief for prices in Q2.
Anyone *not* expecting a bounce from oversold levels early this week?
I knew the Earth was flat!
1) Geopolitical events are tough to trade, so generally don't trade them. 2) If you do, harvesting the risk premium is usually the right trade. 3) External catalysts are often the trigger/excuse for the flush to mark local bottoms. 4) The backdrop in the markets is unchanged.
Important chart and good thread, worth continuing to think about the consequences of imbalance between asset prices and wages.
Important chart and good thread, worth continuing to think about the consequences of imbalance between asset prices and wages.
Further equity weakness will probably be accompanied by lower rates. Bonds were the dog, equities were the tail. Feels like that's flipped around in the short term. Sold my equity puts, actually small long 2s and 5s now, first time in a while not short duration.
Eliant Capital @eliant_capital
113K Followers 1K Following L/S Equities | Macro & Event Driven Trader | Finding Exploits Within the Markets | Not Financial Advice
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
Samantha LaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc
55K Followers 2K Following Proud Founder + Mother. Humbled Contributor: Bloomberg, CNBC, YahooFinance... Curious Cross-Asset Analyst. Persistent Trader on Chase, Swing + Trend Timeframes.
Disruptor ⚡️ @DisruptorStocks
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dmac @dana_marlane
36K Followers 279 Following Best female trader on Twitter. Change my mind. 🔥 vegan dietitian. https://t.co/tqCUqnBG94 danamac.eth #GoCoogs Nothing said here is financial advice.
RJR Capital @RJRCapital
48K Followers 2K Following I'm here to learn and hopefully help retail investors protect & grow capital. Not investment advice. Do your own research. Also fishing. Fishing is good.
ShortSeller @ShortsellerST
30K Followers 2K Following Follow/Set Notifications! ChartsForCharity- Lehman Brothers, Raymond James, JackShu HF (since 1987) - #CfC (100% FREE) here; https://t.co/CHgZyG97qo
Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas
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Linsanity Capital @JLinWins
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PPMan 🍌 @_PPMan_
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HY6 @highyield6
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Brent aka Blacklion @BlacklionCTA
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The Bored Ape Gazette.. @BoredApeGazette
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hellothere @123nothingnew
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djpauliep 🦇🔊⚛.. @dj_paulie_p
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5asvq0kbgttc8tnt @13vhh37xvbs
8 Followers 715 Following We first transfer USDT to you TRC20, you return 90% to BEP20, you get 10% , 2K per day Our co hv a large amt of USDT need to from TRC20 convert to BEP20 network
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Eliant Capital @eliant_capital
113K Followers 1K Following L/S Equities | Macro & Event Driven Trader | Finding Exploits Within the Markets | Not Financial Advice
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited
138K Followers 688 Following CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFND | Fmr IC @Bridgewater | Described as one of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments are not investment advice
Reformed Tr🅰️der @Reformed_Trader
80K Followers 279 Following #DayTrader #SwingTrader NOT a financial advisor. Do not buy or sell based off my tweets. I may be buying, selling, or holding any stock mentioned. Hebrews 13:5
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Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺�.. @agnostoxxx
104K Followers 1K Following Founder and CIO of a $1 Trillion Hedge Fun. Account for entertainment purposes only. Explicit language
Disruptor ⚡️ @DisruptorStocks
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dmac @dana_marlane
36K Followers 279 Following Best female trader on Twitter. Change my mind. 🔥 vegan dietitian. https://t.co/tqCUqnBG94 danamac.eth #GoCoogs Nothing said here is financial advice.
RJR Capital @RJRCapital
48K Followers 2K Following I'm here to learn and hopefully help retail investors protect & grow capital. Not investment advice. Do your own research. Also fishing. Fishing is good.
ShortSeller @ShortsellerST
30K Followers 2K Following Follow/Set Notifications! ChartsForCharity- Lehman Brothers, Raymond James, JackShu HF (since 1987) - #CfC (100% FREE) here; https://t.co/CHgZyG97qo
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116K Followers 4K Following Head of Research, Founder: @topdowncharts Global Macro & Asset Allocation Research (tweets = not advice) NOTE: I will never DM you -- beware of scammers.
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159K Followers 598 Following Subscribe at https://t.co/VGtUvtX2QK for latest thoughts and analysis. YouTube: https://t.co/wTjbN1iNQ8
SpotGamma @spotgamma
107K Followers 191 Following We analyze the options market. Daily commentary: https://t.co/XTAUMUtGlI YouTube: https://t.co/s0HBvNufnw… Disclaimer: https://t.co/3dBKPL2sgx…
Simon Ree @simon_ree
44K Followers 1K Following 25yr career at Goldman & Citi | Trader | Speaker | Bestselling author of The Tao of Trading | Jeet Kune Do Instructor | Tweets not financial advice
xTrends @xtrends
66K Followers 24 Following Futures, stock, $SPX $SPY trader since 1998. NYU alum. Engineer. Structural Principles of Market Trends. Turkuaz Global. Opinions not advice
warren bachman @warrenbachman1
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97K Followers 953 Following CFR senior fellow. Views are my own. Retweets are not endorsements. Writes on sovereign debt and capital flows.
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₿itcoin Gandalf @BTCGandalf
75K Followers 6K Following I tell crazy stories about the revolutionary people and events from #bitcoin's past and present | Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it
Zillow Gone Wild 🏡 @zillowgonewild
619K Followers 10 Following join the zillionaires 🏡. email me wild homes: [email protected]. Subscribe to the Zillow Gone Wild newsletter to never miss a wild home 👇
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16K Followers 294 Following Engineer. Researcher. Stonk Enjoyer. Shit poster. I collect data on options and stuff and post it on X.
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117K Followers 1K Following reformed hedge-fund manager | ex-@yale hockey | drafted by bruins, landed on wall street | author of the💡Informationist newsletter simplifying finance for all
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65K Followers 1K Following Investor. I give my opinions, but not Financial Advice. Math PhD. (Stanford) 6 Years Prop Trading 10 exits. (500MM$) Bitcoin maxi. https://t.co/AbGntC19G6
PDS @TopadoDuran
7K Followers 1K Following Modern Global Macro Investor. Former Head of Macro at Soros. ex - Element. QFR. GS. DB. Macroeconomics. Markets. Bayesian. Data. Opinions are my own.
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11K Followers 211 Following Ex Hedge Fund Manager; Global Macro Volatility Portfolio Manager. Chicago Booth MBA & CFA. My views do not consist of investment advice.
Reflection🪩 @0xReflection
121K Followers 223 Following I’m watching You 👀 l Defi insights 🧵 l On-Chain analytics 🔎| Airdrop Strategies
𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼�.. @nobrainflip
440K Followers 464 Following 𝗪𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘀. 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗸𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴) 𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 𝗗𝗔𝗢 & 𝗗𝗦 @CyclopAlpha
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61K Followers 2K Following Tweets are my opinion and not financial advice | Alpha Hunter | All important Alphas 👇
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298K Followers 185 Following @Binance CEO | Formerly #Binance Head of Regional Markets, Former CEO of Financial Services Regulatory Authority ADGM
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derek guy @dieworkwear
819K Followers 964 Following Menswear writer. Editor at @putthison. Creator of @RLGoesHard. Bylines at The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Financial Times, Esquire, and Mr. Porter
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18K Followers 111 Following Fuck Around and Find Out Guy 😎 https://t.co/tKOhEnw8mx https://t.co/QfK0SuSFZN
Has there ever been a whinier human being in American public life than Donald Trump?
George W was excoriated at the White House Correspondents Dinner. He still attended. And he never whined about it.
Image of Apollo 11 and 12 taken by India's Moon orbiter. Disapproving Moon landing deniers
Imagine thinking this was anything but the worst rebrand literally of all time.
Be Honest! The name 𝕏 is far better than Twitter. Yes or No?
Relative to other currencies, the U.S. dollar is much stronger than it was 10 years ago. Relative to a basket of goods/services, the dollar has indeed lost value. Here's the $DXY over the past 10 years, up +33%.
@CalebFranzen The dollar has lost a lot of value during that time. Inflating debt away is one of the more likely options.
Biden: “Of course, age is an issue. I’m a grown man, and I’m running against a six-year-old.”
Stocks with large buyback programs tend to outperform the broader S&P 500, per Barclays
White to move, mate in 2! Can you solve it in less than 1 minute? ⏳ #chess
You would rather vote for a lying, selfish, sleaze bag?
@LauraLoomer @JoeBiden This is not the precipitating reason for my not voting for @POTUS. There are many reasons, but the most basic is that he is not physically and mentally fit to be president. Even if you agreed with his politics, I don’t believe you can vote for a candidate that is not healthy…
@BillAckman @LauraLoomer @JoeBiden @POTUS So why consider a demented candidate like Trump who can’t stay awake in court, told Americans to drink bleach to cure COVID, and said we had an airforce in the War of Independence? Has Biden ever said anything equivalently nuts?
@BillAckman @LauraLoomer @JoeBiden @POTUS Bill, let’s be honest here. You are willing to turn a blind eye to 91 indictments just for the sake of a tax cut.
Talk about balls
27 April 1943: Polish resistance fighter Witold #Pilecki escapes from Auschwitz after being purposefully sent there. He gathered intelligence and #escaped after two and half years there. While there, he also organized a #resistance movement. #WWII #OTD #ad amzn.to/356otL7
Mate in 2❗️ It's worth sharing with a friend! (If you like these puzzles, please follow me!)
@passedpawn We will know more on Wednesday when we see how Yellen sets up the QRA
@passedpawn boring but logical is exactly how you want your savings portfolio to feel.
The QRA this week will dictate the supply of debt sold in the next 3 months. There are societal needs that will require massive spending in the years to come. More military spending. Huge investments in electric grid. Social security reform. Term premium needs to rise.
Colorful towns & cities with the best views from above - a thread 1. Venice, Italy 🇮🇹
With real yields rising back into the mid-2% range on TIPS, its likely time to revisit this often unfamiliar asset class to most investors. youtu.be/1Bp2duQ7ITk?si…
I see headwinds for indices and higher rates in notes and bonds on the horizon Think 2’s lead 10’s higher in yield Leaning short 2’s long 10’s and short ES into the summer
The story gets worse Old man was a drunk and couldn’t deal with his consequences I supported him for 6 years off my trading revenue Finally cut him off and he went suicide Talk about guilt hot damn
The most impactful moment of my life My baby brother was shot and killed by a guy with nothing to loose at the wrong place at the wrong time Changed my entire life trajectory Still think about you and miss you Daniel, my brother It’s also why you can’t break me
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