Sam Freedman @Samfr
Writes the UK's most popular politics Substack (https://t.co/bcjXR0ncfL). New book - "Failed State" - out 29th August https://t.co/uPuWlb39R3. samf.substack.com Joined January 2009-
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Douglas Murray (in @afneil/@FraserNelson's Spectator) on the AFD: "The public can see that these people often called racists and Nazis are – whatever else .you might think of them – clearly not Nazis or racists"
Douglas Murray (in @afneil/@FraserNelson's Spectator) on the AFD: "The public can see that these people often called racists and Nazis are – whatever else .you might think of them – clearly not Nazis or racists"
Lloyd Evan's grim piece in the Spectator is the second one this year he's written about getting a "special" massage. Clearly short of material as well as basic decency.
Completely different result from R&W - (who had Street on 28% and Labour on 42%). Not sure what accounts for such a big difference.
Completely different result from R&W - (who had Street on 28% and Labour on 42%). Not sure what accounts for such a big difference.
Not only is there no Tory branding but that is one of Labour's slogans from the 2001 election...
Not only is there no Tory branding but that is one of Labour's slogans from the 2001 election...
While this is true it's also true that the biggest drop for the Tories has been amongst older voters. It's just they started from a much stronger position with them in 2019.
While this is true it's also true that the biggest drop for the Tories has been amongst older voters. It's just they started from a much stronger position with them in 2019.
New post from @LawDavF "Why Iran's attack on Israel failed" (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/why…
‼️ There was the highest ever lead – 15 points – for Marine Le Pen’s @MLP_officiel Far Right party in the daily European Elections tracking poll by IFOP for Le Figaro and others tonight. Such a result on 9 June could be calamitous for President @EmmanuelMacron 1/
This is so counterproductive. Cuts to management, admin and support staff are a key reason why the huge increase in clinical staff over recent years has not resulted in substantially more hospital activity
This is so counterproductive. Cuts to management, admin and support staff are a key reason why the huge increase in clinical staff over recent years has not resulted in substantially more hospital activity https://t.co/j7JtSMRbNf
Jim Pickard 🐋 @PickardJE
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6K Followers 564 Following CEO of @38degrees. Politics, football, antifascism. I’m a trustee of @reprieve & @IPPR. I like the pope.@Samfr If we decentralise then some parts of the system will get things wrong. So we have to remove all local power and run everything centrally. Which we cannot possibly hope to do competently because it's just too complex.
@Samfr Anecdote only, but since January we’ve been picking Reform vote intent up on the doorstep whereas before Christmas they were hardly ever cropping up. It’s definitely feeling to us like a real thing now.
@Samfr @cjayanetti a friend ran into his ex at a party once and she explained how she believed the whole thing was a set-up because he had never been into anything like that, and I just thought poor woman. to have something inexplicable and awful happen to someone you loved, and for it to be a joke
Counter-point: the winners must allow the losers to forget they were wrong; history must be retconned so that they were always the good guys, harbouring doubts; converts must always be welcomed with open arms. That's how arguments of this kind are won: no-one likes a sore winner.
In the light of the Cass Review, the Sensibles are now frantically rewriting what they all believed all along They should not be allowed to forget how wrong they got it Me at @unherd unherd.com/2024/04/why-th…
In this week's Blighty email (which I write, and subscribers can get here economist.com/newsletters/bl…) I've a note on Labour's emergent thinking on levelling up. The debate on policy characterised (crudely) as "towns" versus "cities" appears to have shifted in favour of the latter.
Earlier we proposed costed ideas to remove the two-child limit pushing so many into poverty. Disappointed Executive parties voted it down (though some are supporting our other proposals). Ironically, its the SDLP Opposition providing costed plans while others are in no rush.
@Samfr @JenWilliams_FT This and yesterday’s excruciating Home Office testimony from senior officials leaves me deeply worried about the basic competence of those SCS who remain in senior positions in departments
@Samfr True. I'm forgetting I could be a very old lady by the time Jacob Rees Mogg's youngest child becomes Prime Minister as leader of the Popular Conservative Party.
@Samfr Have the Tories shot themselves in the foot on FPTP this time. Tidy reform vote that could have narrowed things (with usual reform caveats).
@Samfr R&W pretty much spot on in 2021, too. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_West…
@Samfr Sure but if I let that stop me, I'd have nothing to say :P
This is the tourist with the expensive watch, latest iphone & Canadian goose jacket loudly standing at the side of Tottenham Court Road asking for directions of political moves.
@Samfr Well Keir Starmer has promised we'll grow faster than anyone in the G7 so piece of piss really.
@Samfr @SarahDaviesLaw @hselftax @TheIFS @CIOTNews If you take the main point made here - that we are effectively at full employment - then creating “good jobs” requires destroying “bad ones” then adding VAT to school fees makes sense. stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_…
@simonmacmichael @Samfr @Attila_The_Khan yes however there is competition from another provider, italo, which has pushed the price of high speed travel down further.
@Samfr Thanks! Agree if I had to put money on it I'd guess Tories lower than 198. One thing to note though is that the model doesn't 'assume' uniform swing, it learns it from historic data. We intentionally gave it the ability to choose
@Samfr We give the model both, which means in most regions it refers mostly to uniform swing. Scotland and Wales obviously pretty different
@Samfr So the median forecast is a virtual mirror image of the 2019 result?