David Johnson @LeadSteer
Joined August 2010-
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Nice Job DC. Keep those deficits pumping for the next decade at greater than 6% of GDP And also nice that Treasury continues to have bills as a % of total debt outstanding at levels greater than their 15-20% historical stated range. Just keep borrowing and changing the rules.…
Here is an updated version of my “Junior Mining Tycoons” watchlist - a way to keep track of some top dogs in the jr mining industry and the stocks they have publicly disclosed positions in. A stark contrast from the previous version. The rich are getting richer this year.…
Here is an updated version of my “Junior Mining Tycoons” watchlist - a way to keep track of some top dogs in the jr mining industry and the stocks they have publicly disclosed positions in. A stark contrast from the previous version. The rich are getting richer this year.… https://t.co/JO3w8BITZF
In #LatinAmerica, you can still buy a property for under 50K USD. If you don't have a passive income, 50k spent on a property is also enough to get you a residence permit in: - Nicaragua 🇳🇮 - Ecuador 🇪🇨 - Argentina 🇦🇷 #Nicaragua #Ecuador #Argentina #RealEstate #ResidencePermit
Commodities may become the best-performing asset class over the next 20 years. The future dominance of commodities as an asset class in the investment world could well be the focus of the next two decades. I prefer fundamental analysis over technical analysis, as studying…
Commodities may become the best-performing asset class over the next 20 years. The future dominance of commodities as an asset class in the investment world could well be the focus of the next two decades. I prefer fundamental analysis over technical analysis, as studying… https://t.co/mmHmy5Y1uV
The spectacular currency implosion of the world's 3rd biggest economy continues.
Oof ...
so true
BOOM! Yentervention?!?!
Good article - "Our results suggest that the dispersion in private equity can be fully replicated in public markets, provided that investors focus on buying cheap, levered micro-caps and hold them in a concentrated portfolio, similar to the portfolio construction in PE."
Good article - "Our results suggest that the dispersion in private equity can be fully replicated in public markets, provided that investors focus on buying cheap, levered micro-caps and hold them in a concentrated portfolio, similar to the portfolio construction in PE."
GMO makes a strong case for the Japanese small caps, forecasting 12% annual returns over the next decade, the strongest performing asset class. Here are the key arguments and drivers 🧵👇🏼 1/8
Poland. Another new all-time high.
If you're looking for bombed-out, left-for-dead ideas. Look no further than the United Kingdom. UK equities are trading at their lowest valuation since 2006. Fund managers are more underweight UK equities than any other asset class. 🇬🇧 = 🤮
A big part of the performance divergence between Japan and EM over the last year+ has been because of a pretty significant divergence in earnings expectations. Also notable that earnings revisions in the US have been down modestly while stocks are up 32%...
Japanese companies lagged the US in revenue growth from 2000 to 2010, barely growing EPS at all. But since then, the EPS of the biggest 500 Japanese stocks has increased by 5.8x over the last 14 years, almost twice the rate of their American peers now.
As a consequence of having lagged (until recently) in relative equity returns since 2010 while having bottom-line earnings that have gone up much faster, the purchase multiples on Japanese stocks still see a very wide long-term divergence that is nowhere near normalized
A heavy issuance focused on the long-end and/or a high target for the TGA = bond and stock sell-off. A low issuance focused on T-Bills and/or a low target for the TGA = short-end bonds rally and stonks go to the moon. And finally... 10/
The Liquidity Sterilization consists in MMF absorbing the new government T-Bill issuance, hence leaving liquidity in the system intact. In its Liquidity Sterilization format, QT can't operate neither of its two tightening levers: 7/
Fed’s bond holdings are down $1.6 trillion from their peak in mid 2022 (due to QT), yet bank reserves (aka ‘’liquidity’’) are virtually unchanged! Blue: Fed bond holdings Orange: bank reserves (aka liquidity) Why is this happening? 2/
What's happening with $USDJPY? You Ask? Just FIAT things🤷
POW! 25 Juicy pages! My longest free post yet! The Bank of Japan is standing idly by while their currency depreciates past the limit set in September 2022. Is all hope lost for the Japanese Yen? 👇🔥 substackfwd.xyz/?url=https://d…
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If 2020 is repeating and these VIX charts hold up, whatever is going to happen hits this weekend. So start looking for whatever you think the "thing" is.
In #LatinAmerica, you can still buy a property for under 50K USD. If you don't have a passive income, 50k spent on a property is also enough to get you a residence permit in: - Nicaragua 🇳🇮 - Ecuador 🇪🇨 - Argentina 🇦🇷 #Nicaragua #Ecuador #Argentina #RealEstate #ResidencePermit
Solar good. Mines bad. Cognitive dissidence at it's finest.🤡🤡🤡
The best protein sources per calorie are: -cod -tuna -shrimp -egg whites -Greek yogurt -chicken breast
@verdadcap @InvestReSolve did a wonderful podcast episode on electricity markets. open.spotify.com/episode/3WsJqW…
@verdadcap You could look up this RBC analyst (Shelby tucker), whose written two primers on the space. Can fwd you if you would like Reports by electricity consultants (edc, abb, pterra etc) are also helpful as they forecast power prices (energy, rec, capacity) and talk about the…
@verdadcap ERCOT offers 101 training classes, you can sign up on their website. Worth it as a primer before spending time with an expert
GMO makes a strong case for the Japanese small caps, forecasting 12% annual returns over the next decade, the strongest performing asset class. Here are the key arguments and drivers 🧵👇🏼 1/8
Japan is serious about creating Shareholder Value. They just released two PDFs on the following: • Considering The Investor's Perspective in Regard to Management Conscious of Cost of Capital • Case Studies of Successful Value Creation Link below 👇 jpx.co.jp/english/news/1…
"I founded Verdad with $8M under management 10 years ago in my dorm room at Stanford.....Today, I am proud to announce on the firm’s 10-year anniversary that Verdad manages $1B" Congrats @verdadcap, hell of a success story and a high signal follow
My review in the WSJ of “How to Listen When Markets Speak” wsj.com/finance/how-to… via @WSJBooks
My review in the WSJ of the Missing Billionaires: An obscure mathematical formula may be the key to building and managing complex portfolios over time. wsj.com/finance/invest… via @WSJBooks
To survive the hard times that are fast approaching. investors should focus on hard assets, writes Daniel Rasmussen wsj.com/finance/how-to…
The new theory is that Fed hikes are actually stimulative (?!) for the economy at this stage. Let's take a look into it. Thread. 1/
A heavy issuance focused on the long-end and/or a high target for the TGA = bond and stock sell-off. A low issuance focused on T-Bills and/or a low target for the TGA = short-end bonds rally and stonks go to the moon. And finally... 10/
You can think of the TGA as the checking account the US Government holds at its bank - which is the Fed. Every time the US government has accumulated excess money that it doesn't intend to immediately channel into spending, they will park it at the TGA account at the Fed. 6/
...because they carry very limited interest rate risk. A 30-year bond is roughly 20x more volatile than a 12-month T-Bill. You can imagine how for market participants its easier to absorb trillions of T-Bills than trillions of long bonds! 4/
Yet something different is happening this time. We are witnessing a Liquidity Sterilization process. Money Market Funds (MMF) are picking up the slack and effectively Sterilizing QT. The tables below explain how - have a look at option 2. 5/
What's happening with $USDJPY? You Ask? Just FIAT things🤷
@peruvian_bull This is great stuff @peruvian_bull. I’ve been wanting to learn more about the Yen situation and this breaks it down really concisely in one piece. You have a gift for teaching. We need more of these well-explained breakdowns on fintwit and less of the mysterious riddles and…
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