fejau @fejau_inc
Shitposts, macro, crypto @veritaslimited degenmacro.substack.com Canada Joined May 2015-
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note: QRA is not something that gets instantly priced in but rather is more of a mechanical flows based component that provides a general trend. See chart below of the 5 days below and after announcement. Little change, but over time, it does. Quite similar to say a stock…
Many such cases
So how does this usually resolve: > some start looking at price as a bargain (we haven’t seen below 60k for a while) > long liqs get bid > hedges cover > we go back up and everyone celebrates, becoming complacent and ignoring the positioning that brought us down in the first…
This was the playbook they’d want to follow if they wanted to pump at all costs. Based on what I’ve seen so far from QRA, signal is this is less likely and are more hawkish/aggressive than this playbook
This was the playbook they’d want to follow if they wanted to pump at all costs. Based on what I’ve seen so far from QRA, signal is this is less likely and are more hawkish/aggressive than this playbook
Because they have government expenditures that they forecast that needed to be funded. And if tax revenues are lower than expected, they need to make up the difference with issuance. Thats literally it. This Yellen 4D chess stuff is getting seriously out of hand
Because they have government expenditures that they forecast that needed to be funded. And if tax revenues are lower than expected, they need to make up the difference with issuance. Thats literally it. This Yellen 4D chess stuff is getting seriously out of hand
if you're a global net liquidity believer, this chart isn't exactly good either
i'll have a more in depth explanation + with updated QRA composition updates + FOMC meeting analysis on my substack tomorrow
i'll have a more in depth explanation + with updated QRA composition updates + FOMC meeting analysis on my substack tomorrow
So far from the QRA announcement, we've received the $ value of funding numbers. Q2 will be $41b higher than initially forecasted, due to lower than expected cash receipts. Q3 forecast will be high, at $847b. We also got forecast of Q3 TGA rising from $750b to $850b. On the…
WHY IS THERE 0 FLOWS THEN LARRY
WHY IS THERE 0 FLOWS THEN LARRY
Bros what if Ksi hired a good trader to take over his account for a couple months so he could fix his image as a bad trader and now that everyone thinks he’s a good trader and not the guy that blew up catching the Luna knife he can move on
Bros what if Ksi hired a good trader to take over his account for a couple months so he could fix his image as a bad trader and now that everyone thinks he’s a good trader and not the guy that blew up catching the Luna knife he can move on
Feels like pushback against fiscal is coming.
Not a great wage cost index print. Fear of a wage price spiral is generally the biggest fear for the Fed. Bearish qra & most likely Fed taking off cuts for the year will lead to a short term pocket of risk off that’s more psychologically driven the fundamental. Again you…
This is my new favourite account hahaha Accidental Action Bronson
This is my new favourite account hahaha Accidental Action Bronson
History written by Christopher Nolan
Still doesn’t make sense to taper when you have the standing repo facility which makes this not really possible to occur again. But fuck it we ball less qt ain’t bad for my bags
Still doesn’t make sense to taper when you have the standing repo facility which makes this not really possible to occur again. But fuck it we ball less qt ain’t bad for my bags
Current state of the market $EIGEN
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TLDR; Yellen deciding to pull liquidity from the market, instead of drawing down on reserves to fuel liquidity higher. Risk appetite takes a hit.
So far from the QRA announcement, we've received the $ value of funding numbers. Q2 will be $41b higher than initially forecasted, due to lower than expected cash receipts. Q3 forecast will be high, at $847b. We also got forecast of Q3 TGA rising from $750b to $850b. On the…
It's simple really, infact the brightest minds in crypto have been doing it for years Remedy the outflows by changing the ETF to B:0% | S:30% tax, the proceeds go to buybacks of BTC on market
🚨SCOOP: Some issuers that have filed with the @SECGov for leveraged $ETH futures ETFs describe “positive dialogue” with SEC staff over applications, one telling me they feel “optimistic” the agency will let the funds go into effect based on the engagement thus far. The…
Last few weeks haven’t been fun but making HTF higher lows is what matters. Just turned 22 and have never taken a real break from Twitter so gonna go touch some grass and water for a few weeks. Talk soon, wish everyone well 🫡
It’s time Sauna ordered Cold plunge ready Rucking backpack loaded Peptides in fridge Charts closed Gym open Carrots peeled Raw milk ordered
Look — maybe I’m just wrong here, but rugs don’t usually happen when ppl are afraid and expecting them. They happen when the mkt is complacent. Look at the sentiment right now. This to me doesn’t feel like complacency yet. Everyone is out here hedging
As we head into part 2 of the Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement tomorrow, I thought it may be interesting to look at the level of volatility that existed in the UST market heading into the event over the last 2 years. Below is a table of what the MOVE Index looked like…
@fejau_inc It doesn’t reverse bc the meeting is dovish, it reverses bc the hedges need to be unwound (ie what the market priced in occurs)
"A Tale as Old as Debt" Latest report from @VincentDeluard goes ridiculously hard Looking forward to interviewing him on @ForwardGuidance today (will likely air on Thursday)
I’m not hating hard enough
@fejau_inc 100% 2020 season was a countertrade, literally missed every single thing 2023 season going forward he had one of the best calls on CT
@fejau_inc fwiw underrated was referred to bsc only CT seems to forget it exists even meanwhile it's flourishing
Full event details: spotgamma.com/pnl-for-a-purp…
@fejau_inc "Inflation reduction act" = Increases inflation.
folks who had no idea what QRA or the TGA was 12 months ago are now selling stocks because of what it may bring tomorrow. understand that macro is the culmination of everything, that's what it's supposed to be. the study of how it all comes together. in reality, it's narrative…
When I started this internship, they gave me the choice between getting paid in fiat or crypto. Unfortunately, I chose crypto. Fortunately, it is an unpaid internship.
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