ted @tedtalksmacro
navigating crypto through a macro lens. talkingmacro.com Australia Joined September 2020-
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May FOMC Meeting Preview 👇 talkingmacro.com/research/may-f…
The Australian housing ponzi. Sydney median household income / house price was around 3x when my parents grew up. Now 13x. 760k migrants settled in 🇦🇺 last year, only 148k new homes. + we have the highest number of construction workers per capita IN THE WORLD! Number go up 🚀
TLDR; Yellen deciding to pull liquidity from the market, instead of drawing down on reserves to fuel liquidity higher. Risk appetite takes a hit.
TLDR; Yellen deciding to pull liquidity from the market, instead of drawing down on reserves to fuel liquidity higher. Risk appetite takes a hit.
A drastic change from the beginning of the year. The market sees only one 25bps cut by December, however at the previous meeting in March, the Fed told us that there will be 3 cuts - via the updated dot plot. Any potential hawkishness has already been priced in, and we re-run…
The correlation between BTC and traditional market liquidity remains strong. Slower periods of price action coincide with plateaus in available 'liquidity', posted in February 'The outlook for bank reserves is for them to fall into mid year - Q3 as the RR facility is depleted...…
The correlation between BTC and traditional market liquidity remains strong. Slower periods of price action coincide with plateaus in available 'liquidity', posted in February 'The outlook for bank reserves is for them to fall into mid year - Q3 as the RR facility is depleted...… https://t.co/JWTWDjpXo7
I've been quieter of late as there's not been much to update on. However, some things out of the east / lesser tracked regions with regard to Bitcoin. 1. Australia will launch spot Bitcoin ETFs for which pension funds can use to get exposure to BTC 🇦🇺 Australia's pension fund…
The market has gifted us with a beautiful reset in trader positioning for Bitcoin. OI weighted funding turned negative for the first time since October 2023... That was before Bitcoin ran from 27k to 46k without any meaningful dip.
The market is now pricing only 1-2 cuts by the end of the year from the Fed... follow the data!
The market is now pricing only 1-2 cuts by the end of the year from the Fed... follow the data! https://t.co/sAosYdjhb8
Another important week for tradFi markets (and crypto), with some key economic data points due 👇 US GDP is expected to slow to +2.5% (prev. +3.4%) - leaving room for an upside surprise. PCE data also due, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation in the US economy.
The plan hasn't changed.
For those asking, I’m alive! Spent the past two weeks traveling (most of the time without WiFi or an internet connection) Looks like we’ve had an entire cycle while I was gone, at least by reading Twitter Yet, BTC still trading $64k Regular programming resumes Monday 🫡
Inflation print was indeed a buying opportunity as per Mondays notes. Given the market’s sensitivity to rates at the moment, any irrational dip on data that reprices the outlook for rates is a buy. Fiscal spending is the greater power here.
Inflation print was indeed a buying opportunity as per Mondays notes. Given the market’s sensitivity to rates at the moment, any irrational dip on data that reprices the outlook for rates is a buy. Fiscal spending is the greater power here.
Notes on this week's economic calendar 👇 Expect lots of volatility and therefore opportunity.
Should be 1k ++ Survived bull and bear, posting active trade setups in the @lambdamarkets1 community all along, great follow 👇
Should be 1k ++ Survived bull and bear, posting active trade setups in the @lambdamarkets1 community all along, great follow 👇
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@tedtalksmacro Don't forget the army of brokers, bankers, real estate agents, vendors, builders, developers, politicians all incentivised for NGU.
AUDNZD - everyone's fav policy divergence play - breaking to new run highs on NZ jobless rate hitting a 3yr high
So far from the QRA announcement, we've received the $ value of funding numbers. Q2 will be $41b higher than initially forecasted, due to lower than expected cash receipts. Q3 forecast will be high, at $847b. We also got forecast of Q3 TGA rising from $750b to $850b. On the…
Avid profit takers are in a great place right now. If price nukes, you get to reload spot. If price pumps and daily structure shifts bullish, you get to long with high confidence again. Really a win/win here IMO if you've been taking profit along the way.
@tedtalksmacro so we bounce a bit and then downtrend and make new lows?
Market sells off heading into FOMC… Hmm when have I seen that before? You know the drill by now Hint: don’t be a jeet
The duality of man when you post stink bids 🤣
Imagine the amount of bids in the box. Price slicing right through it would trigger the stops of all plebs. Whales would feast as market sells n liquidations fill their limit bids. Recovery occurs with extreme haste, back to 60K+ in a day or two. $BTC (shitpost, but possible)
BTX 0.5.0-alpha is live 🚀 The first of many releases bringing multi-exchange funding arbitrage + basis trading to our users. @binance + @kucoincom are now fully integrated, while data feeds for @okx and @BitMEX are now streaming in real time. Watch this space 💪
Just a range. Bullish at the lows, bearish at the highs until proven otherwise. We are in bullish structure territory here but it's weak. Before any major upside move we see MA's compressing, fast MA above slow and preferably green/blue candles. Chop continues.
Can we all stop getting super bullish as price moves up 1% and super bearish as price moves down 1%. Cheers.
@tedtalksmacro Being transparent, I asked GPT what I could say to appear intelligent.
Learn to recognize fear-mongering clickbait
For those who do not understand what just happened: First, Q1 2024 GDP growth slowed to just 1.6% which is less than HALF of the 3.4% Q4 2023 number. This reading is roughly 50% BELOW Goldman Sach's expectations. But it gets even worse. At the same time, the US Core PCE Price…
The missus is booking a vacay, really looking forward to the beautiful, panoramic views on Santorini 🙈
@Morecryptoonl Tagging all the legends. @Pentosh1 @Morecryptoonl @CredibleCrypto @CryptoDonAlt @DaanCrypto @defi_mochi @cyrilXBT @thedefivillain @hmalviya9 @tedtalksmacro I hope you guys won't mind!
"Here is why this $1m shitcoin (50k liquidity) should go up, I'm so bullish." *send tweet* *250k impressions* *number goes up* "don't fade me. 🐐"
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