Prepared Remarks @Rebrand_As_Y
Joined January 2011-
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The indices continue their non stop grind higher (thereby continuing to demonstrate zero need for 98% of public market managers) but there’s a ton of value under the surface if you want to buy it and underperform artisanally
You: “Oh no Q1 quota looks weak” Me: Long $5-50B mkt cap software will be the easiest $ in a while
You: “Oh no Q1 quota looks weak” Me: Long $5-50B mkt cap software will be the easiest $ in a while
The time has come
Trying to do mattress channel checks on Reddit and the juxtaposition between absolute weirdos and genuinely helpful insight in the AMA is why Reddit is great
Elon: “robotaxi’s that sell excess inference capacity for compute” Market: sounds totally reasonable. +12% Zuck: “AI related revenue will come in the future but have to spend for it now” Market:
In 2021 SNBR repurchased 3.1 million shares for $364 million ($116.79/share). As of today SNBR’s entire market cap is $300 million and the stock is down 88% vs the 2021 buyback price. Leverage is >4x EBITDAR & they had to amend their credit agreement. Embarassing.
Tesla cars being AWS-like distributed inference robotaxi’s is straight out of the Enron broadband fantasy playbook
Pythia Capital, Baron.. @PythiaR
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Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker
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Jerry Capital @JerryCap
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InnocenceCapital.AI (.. @InnocenceCapit1
13K Followers 1K Following Because I am an innocent man. This is the end of the innocence. Not investment advice. Do your own work. Relentlessly pragmatic. You are all “Pedo Guys”.
modest proposal @modestproposal1
101K Followers 807 Following I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection. https://t.co/NuC25VaSff
Mostly Borrowed Ideas @borrowed_ideas
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Ricky Sandler @rsandler21969
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Bread Crumbs Research @breadcrumbsre
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СТАИ @lupinest
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no clue @ultrazeroyields
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Pythia Capital, Baron.. @PythiaR
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Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker
126K Followers 4K Following Managing Partner & CIO, @atreidesmgmt. Husband, @l3eckyy. No investment advice, views my own. https://t.co/pFe9KmNu9U
Jerry Capital @JerryCap
41K Followers 577 Following Not selling anything. Not investment advice. My personal but public journal. Arguing with you to spare my family. DMs open. DM a mutual friend to unblock.
InnocenceCapital.AI (.. @InnocenceCapit1
13K Followers 1K Following Because I am an innocent man. This is the end of the innocence. Not investment advice. Do your own work. Relentlessly pragmatic. You are all “Pedo Guys”.
modest proposal @modestproposal1
101K Followers 807 Following I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection. https://t.co/NuC25VaSff
Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1
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Lawrence Hamtil @lhamtil
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Ricky Sandler @rsandler21969
26K Followers 421 Following CEO / CIO of Eminence Capital. Stock and market thoughts likely reflect our book. #Badgers #Mets
Bread Crumbs Research @breadcrumbsre
23K Followers 532 Following I invest in unrecognized/underappreciated excellence. "Trying to spot a great manager remains a game very much worth playing". Mostly small caps
Chairlift Capital @ChairliftCap
9K Followers 1K Following Mostly software. DMs open. [email protected]
DaRazor @akramsrazor
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32K Followers 2K Following Mostly tweet about investing, governance, strategy, board dynamics, & random equity research topics. DM open..
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79 Followers 110 Following mkt neutral tech pm. I blame losses on the quants.
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50K Followers 3K Following MD/MBA. Investor. Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Might buy or sell any securities without disclosures.
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@Rebrand_As_Y Artisanal underperformance is going to be the name of my value fund
No
Forbes #1 Best City to Move to in 2024: Omaha, Nebraska 😎
@Rebrand_As_Y What’s wrong w their AI strategy? Let the other guys spend capex they just rent compute for LLM. Meanwhile they focus on edge w ARM based silicon. Makes sense to me.. they will eventually be a massive beneficiary without the capex spend
@Rebrand_As_Y Case in point meta beat and slightly guided down on Q2 and took a 20 percent haircut.
@Sleepysolcap Earnings on Thursdays leaves it so susceptible to squeezing too. There was a call a few years ago where it was -4%~ on shit #s $ it closed green. @Rebrand_As_Y put it well once that if a name like it/ META etc is a short then by definition there are much better shorts out there
@Rebrand_As_Y crocs guy family photo album story hour
@Rebrand_As_Y @realLigerCub OP - the reason u can’t look thru trough is bcuz MBUU still functionally on the hook for dealer inventory. Boats already recognzed in 2023/24 rev/earnings, but still at dealer. A lot. (1) MBUU guarantees floorplan loan (interest burden & recourse) (2) no space for future orders
@Rebrand_As_Y @realLigerCub Still ~30% NT downside if they debut FY25 EBITDA guide 90m and mult expands a turn (then start missing again because dealer incentives are contra rev and 500m of floorplan at 10% interest is alotta contra-rev)
@Rebrand_As_Y Good overview by @AlbertBridgeCap stocks.apple.com/AF1HvLjjiTcqpi…
@Rebrand_As_Y haven’t followed for a while but there were some governance issues with the porsche family having control or something
@fundiescapital @Rebrand_As_Y It is Porsche (exactly as I lay out in the spreadsheet). It's just the holdco vs the op sub. Still owns €28b worth of look thru P911 vs 14.7b market cap.
@ArmsGarrett @Rebrand_As_Y One caveat, it’s not Porsche (as you lay out in spreadsheet). More of the value driven by Volkswagen so kind of a partial case of mistaken identity/naming on security. P911 is more what people think they are getting at cursory glance.
@Rebrand_As_Y @West4thCapital Just feels like it's in a bit of a deadzone if you can't be very confident we're headed towards those levels in 2 years, meanwhile qsr traffic still seems questionable and oversupply seems like it should temper pricing power (even if not negative)
@Rebrand_As_Y @West4thCapital Agreed on selling at 19x but feel like you need others to start believing it can get to 20+ for their to be significant incremental buyers from here
@Rebrand_As_Y You’ll be reeling ‘em in. Just don’t talk stocks…
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