Paul de Jong 🌐 @pauldejong_
Curious student of the market, financial data visualizations (markets, valuations & central banks), MSc Economics. Amsterdam Joined November 2010-
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Corporate Profits vs S&P 500. $SPX $SPY $VOO
Corporate Profits vs S&P 500: scatterplot
Top 10 S&P 500: Market Cap vs EPS. $NVDA $AAPL $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $AVGO $META $TSLA $MU $BRK.B $SPY
Paul de Jong 🌐 retweeted
Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @RachelDashCS The combination of extreme volatility compression and a looming supply shortage has created a very compelling setup for copper. Get the full details in today's report plus more great charts. ⬇️ thechartreport.com/09-08-26
Paul de Jong 🌐 retweeted
Small-Caps have been one of the strongest corners of the market this year, and Small-Cap Tech is sitting near a major level to kick off the week. Read the full note in today's Morning Print. 🌤️ thechartreport.com/TheMorningPrin…
Scatterplot: Top 10 $SPX Market Cap vs EPS. R² = 0.96
Nasdaq around Midterm Elections. Average gain +22% after 150 trading days. $NDX $QQQ
Paul de Jong 🌐 retweeted
NEW POST: I find myself living in a weekly world. trendlabs.com/living-in-a-we…
Corporate profits relative to overall economic output are at all-time highs.
Biggest World market cap gains and losses week 36 Losses: Gains: $MSFT -$103 $NVDA +$312 $GOOG -$96 $META +$99 $AMZN -$85 $MU +$95 $AVGO -$53 $SPCX +$88 CXMT -$37 $TSM +$59 $PANW -$31 $DELL +$44
Biggest World market cap gains and losses week 35 Losses: Gains: Samsung -$108 $MSFT +$225 $LLY -$72 $AAPL +$151 $TSLA -$56 $AMZN +$84 $MU -$38 $META +$72 SK hynix -$36 $SPCX +$61 $XOM -$35 $NVDA +$53
The Top 10 S&P 500 companies spent late 2023 and early 2025 crushing the broader index with YoY outperformance spikes above 20–40%. The YoY relative performance has dropped toward 0%, indicating that market leadership is broadening. $NVDA $AAPL $GOOG $MSFT $AMZN $AVGO $SPY
Paul de Jong 🌐 retweeted
Here's the problem with a 90/10 portfolio like the one UC just launched as an ETF: When you mix stocks and bonds into a multi-asset instrument you a create a blended instrument that starts to average the characteristics of the two instruments. But the problem is stocks are VASTLY more volatile than bonds. So, in a 90/10 portfolio the 10% bond piece might be uncorrelated at times, but it's not big enough (or volatile enough) to offset the stock moves over time. In the context of Defined Duration investing a 90/10 portfolio takes 10% of bonds with a DD of 5 and blends them with 90% of equities which currently have a DD of about 32. That leaves you with a 29.3 year instrument, which is an equity style instrument for all practical purposes. You need a much larger (or longer duration) bond piece to meaningfuly mitigate the equity market vol. See the drawdown chart below. The bonds do almost nothing to hedge the portfolio over time because the stocks dominate the volatility contribution in the portfolio. What you end up with is an instrument that gets little to none of the downside protection from the bonds and all the drag. Since 1950 a 100% stock portfolio grows from 10K to $42.5K. The 90/10 grows from $10K to just $30K. That's what 0.5% of CAGR drag from bonds does over 75 years.
@EconomPic @choffstein The 90-10 allocation triggers me. The bonds aren't large enough to do anything. And so it's basically just a 100% equity allocation with a dumb return drag.
Paul de Jong 🌐 retweeted
Today's Chart of the Day was shared by @TravisBiziorek The Magnificent Seven have been opportunity cost for nearly a year, but the ETF is now just a hair away from new all-time highs on both a daily and weekly closing basis. Get the full breakdown in today's report plus more great charts. ⬇️ thechartreport.com/09-03-26
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