Matthew Wilson @mattwilsonwx
NCAR meteorology Postdoc, PhD/MS from UNL, BS from Valpo. Fan of Python coding and Monty Python. Maker of terrible puns. Lincoln, NE Joined August 2016-
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So the bulk shear isn't as high and the LLJ response later in the evening isn't as impressive, but there could be a window for some 6/8/2019-like photogenic supercells in SE KS today.
A collage of all Category 5 Tropical Cyclones worldwide that have been captured on satellite and surface analysis maps from 1924 to 2023.
Doppler Effect xkcd.com/2926
Dear chasers (especially if you have a large following): Please do not call an event a bust before it’s over. Especially when nighttime tornadoes were forecast the entire event. People follow you and listen to you. Just because you didn’t get your daytime tornado…
Leoti was my hypothetical chase location today. This storm probably has nice structure, no chaser conga line, and maybe even a tornado.
The morning surface analysis shows that a cold front (denoted by blue gummi bears) will catch up to a warm front (red gummi bears) resulting in an occluded front (purple gummi bears) for increasingly wet & breezy conditions across Western WA today. #NationalGummiBearDay #wawx
There have only been 5 occurrences of 42 or more warnings by a single NWS office over the last decade: @NWSHouston August 27, 2017 (73) @NWSMelbourne September 10, 2017 (48) @NWSTallahassee March 3, 2019 (44) @NWSSpringfield April 30, 2019 (42) @NWSOmaha April 26, 2024 (42)
The atmosphere doesn't care what the forecast is. Nature doesn't need a MDT or HIGH or a PDS watch to produce intense tornadoes&tornado outbreaks; they can happen in just about any convective outlook category as evidenced by today's tornadoes in "only" an ENH with 10% tor probs.
NWS Omaha's warning product generation this afternoon was nothing short of heroic. As of 7:45 PM 164 SVS (followup to TOR,SVR warnings) 102 LSR (Local Storm Reports) 42 Tornado Warnings 25 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings Those SVS and LSR counts take extreme levels of effort.
Landspout on cell SW of Otis, CO at 3:30 MDT @NWSBoulder . Ground circulation weirdly offset from funnel at cloud base.
NE on Friday:
This weekend's snow was the best kind of snow, it that it was pretty and stuck to everything...and it didn't stick around for long.
Elizabeth Leitman @WxLiz
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The downdrafts that spurred the RFD surge in question can be traced back to the Tipton area. There, a +2.5 mb pressure perturbation implies downdrafts may have exceeded 20 m/s before decelerating to zero as they hit the ground and spread out!
Significant tornado in Hollister #okwx formed upon a strong RFD surge instigated by the merging of the occluded mesocyclone with the forward mesocyclone
Are we sure Oklahoma is a real place and not just some wacky meteorological test kitchen? #okwx
Well at least we now have an idea of what the Grand Island 1980 Night of the Twisters event would have looked like with an 88D
Alrighty undergrads, I hope you’re watching tonight. This would make a fantastic case study for a capstone/research project.
Not often seen: an *anticyclonic* tornadic signature (SE of Loveland, FDR radar is off-screen upper left), which was accompanied by a pronounced rho-hv min. Cyclonic meso organizing to its NE. Velocity loop ending 330Z.
Significant tornado in Hollister #okwx formed upon a strong RFD surge instigated by the merging of the occluded mesocyclone with the forward mesocyclone
To be clear, in this loop we have a westward moving, dissipating cyclonic tornado AND and newly developed anticyclonic tornado also moving west-southwest with a debris signature. This is so incredibly rare it’s hard to describe.
Honestly the most impressive part of this is KFDR not going down mid tornado
Hard core deviant motion turn coming from this large tornado near Loveland, OK. Brace yourselves for a hard backwards movement. Highly erratic tornado. #okwx
An RFD surge turning a little spinny into an intense tornado. Welp
Looks like “mesoscale accident” season has begun.
If there’s one forecast that’s always right, it’s that the atmosphere will continue to find ways to humble you. Lots to learn.
Well at least I know my car is safe this evening. #arwx #TarmacTheWeatherCat
Wild structure with dual laminar mesocyclones from Frederick #okwx