Matthew Smith @mattsmithetc
Head of data journalism at @YouGov. Formerly digital comms at @policy_exchange, @unisontweets London Joined October 2010-
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Lowest Tory vote share since the crazy period in the 2019 European elections. The 18% Tory vote share is also equivalent to the lowest VI that Labour ever achieved under Jeremy Corbyn
Lowest Tory vote share since the crazy period in the 2019 European elections. The 18% Tory vote share is also equivalent to the lowest VI that Labour ever achieved under Jeremy Corbyn
Tory vote share now lower than under Liz Truss in our latest VI (30 Apr - 1 May) Con: 18% (-2 from 23-24 Apr) Lab: 44% (-1) Reform UK: 15% (+2) Lib Dem: 10% (+1) Green: 8% (+1) SNP: 2% (-1) yougov.co.uk/politics/artic…
Historical context (and lovely data viz): 2019-2024 defections a lot compared to 1983-2017, 1950-1974, 1918-1929; not a lot compared to 2017-2019, 1979-1983, 1886-1892!
Historical context (and lovely data viz): 2019-2024 defections a lot compared to 1983-2017, 1950-1974, 1918-1929; not a lot compared to 2017-2019, 1979-1983, 1886-1892!
Dan Poulter MP has defected from the Conservatives to Labour - the second Tory MP to do so this Parliament following Christian Wakeford's defection in 2022
Sorry rocket scientists, Britons overwhelmingly think brain surgery is harder Do you think rocket science or brain surgery is the harder job? 🚀: 8% 🧠: 66% yougov.co.uk/topics/economy…
Forgot we asked this last year, obviously relevant this week: How interested are you in what Liz Truss has to say about government policy? Interested: 13% / Not interested: 82%
We're hiring for two data journalist positions at YouGov - a senior and a junior role. I'm biased, but I think ours are the most interesting and fulfilling jobs in the organisation, so come join me and let's do polls together! Full JDs and applications at jobs.yougov.com/jobs
Some Friday motivation from me - by the time Britons hit their 40s they tend to think their best years are behind them. Man it sure would suck if my 30s were a global pandemic, cost of living crisis, World War III... oh
New YouGov MRP – Labour set to win more than 400 seats Labour: 403 (+201 since GE2019) Conservatives: 155 (-210) Lib Dems: 49 (+38) SNP: 19 (-29) Plaid: 4 (=) Greens: 1 (=) Reform UK: 0 (=) yougov.co.uk/politics/artic…
The 79% saying ‘public services in general’ are in a bad state is notably higher than most of the subsequent individual examples, showing just how negative the public’s assessment of the general state of the country is
The 79% saying ‘public services in general’ are in a bad state is notably higher than most of the subsequent individual examples, showing just how negative the public’s assessment of the general state of the country is
71% of Brits would have little to no sympathy for families whose private school bills would go up because of the introduction of VAT None: 45% Not much: 26% Some: 13% A lot: 6% yougov.co.uk/topics/society…
71% of Brits would have little to no sympathy for families whose private school bills would go up because of the introduction of VAT None: 45% Not much: 26% Some: 13% A lot: 6% yougov.co.uk/topics/society…
The OG non-private toilet stall
This isn't great reporting of poll findings and change versus an actual post-election poll where being undecided is, of course, impossible. Compares apples with oranges.
Sam Freedman @Samfr
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35K Followers 2K Following Reporter @KyivIndependent European Press Prize 2023 AllForJan Award MENA aficionado Donetsk-Kyiv, Ukraine [email protected] [email protected]Finally, I want to give huge praise and thanks to everyone here at YG who helped with putting this (and our regional mayors work) together and getting it out there: @lottiedthornton @AdamMcDonnell21 @anthonyjwells @ChiaraRicchi_ @nellonthemelon @mattsmithetc
I also think this is an incredibly obvious claim to the point of banality and that it's apparently controversial reflects a serious lack of reflection and familiarity with the broader social scientific consensus.
How many MPs the largest party had, at the start and end of each Parliament since the war (NB the 'End' figures re-add vacancies and Speaker/deputies, for consistency)
Historical context (and lovely data viz): 2019-2024 defections a lot compared to 1983-2017, 1950-1974, 1918-1929; not a lot compared to 2017-2019, 1979-1983, 1886-1892!
Dan Poulter MP has defected from the Conservatives to Labour - the second Tory MP to do so this Parliament following Christian Wakeford's defection in 2022
@TuraNome @SuperSquidoodle @_VioMarks_ All that math just for you to say Bioshock
@singharj @theipaper The argument that can take all existing voters for granted by choosing a less popular leader who may have more appeal to some lost voters seems obviously daft
The rumours about a summer general election sound an awful lot to me like the rumours about plans to hold the general election on the same day as the local elections. Or the rumous about a general election in autumn 2023.
Scots tend to have a negative view of those who fly the England flag (50% vs 31% positive) and Welsh people are split (41-42%) - but people in England do not reciprocate the negativity, with only 17-18% taking a negative view of those flying Sco/Wal flags yougov.co.uk/society/articl…
Boomers love posting stuff like this and then calling the police on teenage skateboarders because they’re making noise.
@MattChorley I mean also couldn’t lead them to victory after literally winning a world war, so…
Londoners when they return from a trip up north
A reminder of how news that the Conservative Party Chairman failed to pay millions of pounds he owed in tax, was reported.
The inventor of the "Trust to put up a shelf?" political question was the always innovative journalist Simon Walters. This was our pre-2015 GE shelf picture from 2014. Nigel Farage was actually the most trusted on shelves (by a small margin) but perhaps crucially, Miliband came…
On HIGNFY last night. Really important stuff. You'd trust @Nigel_Farage most to put up a shelf but def not babysit..
'If the polls tighten' doing a lot of work in this piece.
Labour may fail to grab target seats as young voters turn away over Gaza and climate theguardian.com/politics/2024/…