Paula Surridge @p_surridge
Deputy Director @ukandeu, Professor of Political Sociology @spaisbristol medium.com/@psurridge Joined May 2013-
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One thing we do already know about the locals, before the votes are counted, is that Labour's projected share lead will very likely be lower than their poll lead. Last year, a 15pt lead led to a 9pt PNS lead. This year, I'd expect a 20pt lead to convert to around 11-12pts.
One thing we do already know about the locals, before the votes are counted, is that Labour's projected share lead will very likely be lower than their poll lead. Last year, a 15pt lead led to a 9pt PNS lead. This year, I'd expect a 20pt lead to convert to around 11-12pts.
Usually guess these from first set of demographics, but always worth remembering when talking about voters we deal in probabilities not determiners.
I am not going to be impressed if they ruin a perfectly lovely school cricket season with an election campaign.
Having evenly spread support under FPTP is a double-edged sword. If your support is high, you win everywhere (almost literally in 2015). If your support is low, then there are very few safe seats...
Having evenly spread support under FPTP is a double-edged sword. If your support is high, you win everywhere (almost literally in 2015). If your support is low, then there are very few safe seats...
🗳️ Next Thursday voters head to the polls to elect their local councillors, mayors and Police & Crime Commissioners. ❓ But where do the parties stand, how might they fare, and what should we be looking out for? Read @_HannahBunting & @michaelthrasher's essential previews now👇
This but with added 'stop comparing elections from 25 years ago' as well the electorate have changed.
This but with added 'stop comparing elections from 25 years ago' as well the electorate have changed.
🚨🎧 NEW EPISODE 🎧🚨 📚 On the latest episode of the UKICE (I Tell) podcast @drsarah_hall is joined by @CSBarnard24 and @fiona_costello to talk about their brand new book "Low-Paid EU Migrant Workers, the House, the Street, the Town". Listen now 👇👇 soundcloud.com/user-941630307…
You really feel this shift in the qual, and it’s profoundly depressing post 2019 leave voters - particularly in our north/midlands groups genuinely felt they were going to be listened to, fast forward and there’s real despondency/anger it ultimately seemed to be a false dawn.
You really feel this shift in the qual, and it’s profoundly depressing post 2019 leave voters - particularly in our north/midlands groups genuinely felt they were going to be listened to, fast forward and there’s real despondency/anger it ultimately seemed to be a false dawn.
This is an interesting finding and fits with my sense that a chunk of the GB News audience are commentators who disagree with much of the coverage rather than target voters
This is an interesting finding and fits with my sense that a chunk of the GB News audience are commentators who disagree with much of the coverage rather than target voters
🗣️ @anandMenon1 asks the really really big questions to Sir John Curtice.... 👉 When does he find out the result of the Exit Poll on election day? 👀 And listen to the audience reaction...
Turnout could be key here - and we have such good data on Mayoral Election turnout....
Turnout could be key here - and we have such good data on Mayoral Election turnout....
Railway nationalisation is very popular (as all utilities!). This large poll we did for @We_OwnIt I'm told has one of the highest levels of social media engagement ever for a politico/polling issue. Popular message and an excellent campaign by @We_OwnIt x.com/survation/stat…
Railway nationalisation is very popular (as all utilities!). This large poll we did for @We_OwnIt I'm told has one of the highest levels of social media engagement ever for a politico/polling issue. Popular message and an excellent campaign by @We_OwnIt x.com/survation/stat…
Labour's announcement on railways looks smart to me. Huge support among loyal Labour voters of course, but also high levels of support among those swapping to Lab from the Cons (majority supp in all groups even the loyal Cons so not an easy policy to attack to keep loyal voters)
@anandMenon1 🗳️ "The point is it's an asymmetric contest: unless the Conservatives are at or very close to 326 they will not form the next government" John Curtice explains the thinking behind his recent comment that there's a 99% chance of Labour forming the next government.
Reassuring perhaps, but we need to really understand why to if we want to guard against moving in the same direction.
Reassuring perhaps, but we need to really understand why to if we want to guard against moving in the same direction.
🚨 OUT TODAY 🚨 📚 "Low-Paid EU Migrant Workers, the House, the Street, the Town" by @CSBarnard24 @fiona_costello @SFraserButlin is now out with @BrisUniPress! The book explores the lives of EU migrant workers in the UK following Brexit & Covid-19 👇 bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/low-paid-eu-mi…
Spent two hours trying to code a measure of a marginal voter based on the propensity to vote for measures - identifying voters who have a ptv +/- 1 with two or more parties. Now I have a lot of code, but I'm not convinced I am any better informed.
Upon further inspection, there is an error in our West Midlands Mayoralty poll from last week, where we have incorrectly applied the 2019 past vote weight, using past vote targets for whole of the West Midlands region as opposed to the West Midlands Combined Authority area. (1/4)
Stephen Bush @stephenkb
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This 1940's press cutting from our Nutrition collection features some of the best #ArchiveAdvice you'll ever receive... 🍪 #Archive30
Yeah, sex is great but have you ever had a mate text to say they’d just popped into a 2nd hand shop on holiday and they’ve got some of ‘that weird stuff you’re into’
Upon further inspection, there is an error in our West Midlands Mayoralty poll from last week, where we have incorrectly applied the 2019 past vote weight, using past vote targets for whole of the West Midlands region as opposed to the West Midlands Combined Authority area. (1/4)
@SteveAkehurst @stefanstern @p_surridge is good on everything! But that was 2018 and @elizabeth_sim0n's work came out in 2022: johnsmithcentre.com/research-blog/… Full article: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
@jon_mellon Whether the code is 9, 99, or 999, it should be easy to spot these kinds of errors from a table of basic descriptive statistics. Unless people aren't looking at their data before they throw it into a regression
After an R&R, Reviewer 3: “I still don’t like this paper, but I guess the authors did do everything I asked for, so I can no longer object”
What’s the most memorable feedback you’ve received on your work?
Very proud of this! A handy guide to understanding what polling can and can’t tell us, and which numbers to trust. Thank you to @robfordmancs and @zain_98569 for somehow helping me make sampling error fun and @shunsakerjr for agreeing to the pink nail varnish on the cover 💅🏻
🗳️ With elections fast approaching, there’s one thing you’re sure to hear about more and more: POLLS. 👀 Polling seems to be everywhere. 🧐 But what actually is it? How does it work? And how can we tell which ones to trust? 📊 Our NEW guide explains. ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/pollin…
Has been great working with @_AlexBogdan and @Ipsos on this project! Keep your eyes peeled on Friday for @DrStephanieLuke’s next blog 📈
📊 NEW polling with @IpsosUK 📊 ✍️"By European standards, even people who feel represented in the UK are particularly pessimistic about political engagement" 🚨 @SophieStowers compares feelings of political apathy in the UK to other European countries. ukandeu.ac.uk/apathy-in-the-…
@p_surridge @Beyond_Topline @MariosRichards Think that's the case, and reflects what you see with a lot of liberal-right parties - higher econ salience means they'd rather govern with auth-right than liberal-left.
@p_surridge This is excellent. It does seem 2 illustrate 4 all the culture wars material economic issues are impacting on people's values. In 2017 this may have helped Lab's vote rise (this often overlooked report is useful), but it was overwhelmed by Brexit in 2019 jrf.org.uk/political-mind…
We interpret this as evidence of an ‘allocative effect’, whereby it is not the experience of university study itself, but the opportunities typically afforded to graduates by virtue of doing so that drive them to develop less Eurosceptic attitudes, relative to non-graduates.
Is It Cake? But for opinion polls. TV celebs have 30 seconds to examine the cross breaks of opinion polls and work out which ones are real and which were made up.
@p_surridge London should produce some very useful data x.com/charliemansell…
@andrewteale No Reform candidates in London Council by-elections will be comparable with the GLA election ward level data so one can see where their vote went without them
Oh look, weaponized incompetence in academia. Great piece on how academic women end up doing the ‘housework’ at universities. #AcademicChatter kifinfo.no/en/2024/03/wom…
@p_surridge In that case I thank you for a good night's sleep tonight!
I like averages. I use them, I calculate them and I can bore you with the pros and cons of mean versus median versus mode. But there's a problem with polling averages... theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/the-problem-…
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