James Kanagasooriam @JamesKanag
Pollster. Chief Research Officer of @focaldataHQ + Researcher @UKandEU | Board of @ukonward and @TenebraeChoir | https://t.co/29hrpARjh5 focaldata.com/bi-focal United Kingdom Joined March 2009-
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A parallel American university / Higher Education could be set up based on grades/meritocracy/ free enquiry and the political consequences - if it worked - could be enormous. A bifurcation of elites
Nicely communicated by @ChrisHopkins92 and his team and their West Mids poll. Very easy to be snarky about the Savanta poll but a very quick acknowledgement and correction, which interestingly is only a modest change. Polling karma is a real thing.
Nicely communicated by @ChrisHopkins92 and his team and their West Mids poll. Very easy to be snarky about the Savanta poll but a very quick acknowledgement and correction, which interestingly is only a modest change. Polling karma is a real thing.
Struggling to understand that we could potentially legalise assisted dying but ban smoking. Sorry kids you can’t smoke, but you can end your life
Always worth a look from @OwenWntr, and to my mind, more realistic estimates of what could happen. Interesting also how fundamentals analysis can really perform well vs poll nowcasts.
Always worth a look from @OwenWntr, and to my mind, more realistic estimates of what could happen. Interesting also how fundamentals analysis can really perform well vs poll nowcasts.
Worth a read from the great @chrishanretty
Great thread from @sundersays on the term “Global Majority” apparently being used for job adverts in the U.K. Today’s Times carries a piece by me on the political battles to come in this area thetimes.co.uk/article/cultur…
Great thread from @sundersays on the term “Global Majority” apparently being used for job adverts in the U.K. Today’s Times carries a piece by me on the political battles to come in this area thetimes.co.uk/article/cultur…
Enjoyed doing this immensely with @amolrajan
Reckon @gelliottmorris should tweet this graph out periodically. One of the more curious developments in consumption of election polling across the western world is lack of distinction many commentators make between nowcasts and forecasts. They’re not meant to be the same
Reckon @gelliottmorris should tweet this graph out periodically. One of the more curious developments in consumption of election polling across the western world is lack of distinction many commentators make between nowcasts and forecasts. They’re not meant to be the same
After a punchy state of the union address this long-read for @unherd from us here at @focaldataHQ on how Biden is not out might be worth your time unherd.com/2024/02/how-bi…
After a punchy state of the union address this long-read for @unherd from us here at @focaldataHQ on how Biden is not out might be worth your time unherd.com/2024/02/how-bi…
Very interested in how Reform UK perform in Blackpool South by election. If there’s another underperformance from them, there’s a strong case to be made that there’s a potential systematic polling error.
Look forward to this column, and a reminder that under proportional representation the politicians propagating the belief sets of the below three people would magnify enormously.
Look forward to this column, and a reminder that under proportional representation the politicians propagating the belief sets of the below three people would magnify enormously.
Here at @focaldataHQ we examined the polling behind public attitudes towards Shamima Begum. There's no other public attitude question that produces such a comprehensive centre-right view: 86% agree with her losing her citizenship, and only 5% don't. focaldata.com/blog/bi-focal-…
Here at @focaldataHQ we examined the polling behind public attitudes towards Shamima Begum. There's no other public attitude question that produces such a comprehensive centre-right view: 86% agree with her losing her citizenship, and only 5% don't. focaldata.com/blog/bi-focal-…
🧵 NEW: Why are salaries so much higher in the US than in Britain? Both nation’s economies are going in very different directions - but there is more to headline differences than meets the eye… the-times.co.uk/article/f8099f… @thetimes @KeiranSouthern
Think the polling industry needs to have a think about how realistic MRPs are this far out from an election. Just wondering what the mood music would have been in 1997 when Blair touched 60% and they’d had MRP.
Think the polling industry needs to have a think about how realistic MRPs are this far out from an election. Just wondering what the mood music would have been in 1997 when Blair touched 60% and they’d had MRP.
There’s a strong case to be made that the Democrat tilt for The White House has been prematurely written off. Wrote a long deep dive for @unherd on why this might be the case unherd.com/2024/02/how-bi…
There’s a strong case to be made that the Democrat tilt for The White House has been prematurely written off. Wrote a long deep dive for @unherd on why this might be the case unherd.com/2024/02/how-bi…
The leadership of my home town’s cathedral is just so off piste. Just a slow motion car crash of 1,000 years of history and heritage
The leadership of my home town’s cathedral is just so off piste. Just a slow motion car crash of 1,000 years of history and heritage
Really good swing state polling detail in here on Biden’s challenges. And yes, age is definitely one of them and not a media fixation!
Really good swing state polling detail in here on Biden’s challenges. And yes, age is definitely one of them and not a media fixation!
Sam Freedman @Samfr
145K Followers 1K Following Writes the UK's most popular politics Substack (https://t.co/bcjXR0ncfL). New book - "Failed State" - out 29th August https://t.co/uPuWlb39R3.Stephen Bush @stephenkb
147K Followers 7K Following Associate editor and columnist @FinancialTimes. Tweet about politics, policy, culture, nerd stuff. Tongue mostly in cheek. Get my newsletter here 👇Robert Colvile @rcolvile
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27K Followers 6K Following I research and write about politics, public policy, public opinion, polls, elections, trust.Yuan Yi Zhu @yuanyi_z
48K Followers 17K Following Assistant to the professor of international relations and international law. All views mine alone.Sam Bowman @s8mb
49K Followers 2K Following Editor of https://t.co/YPQHCCb6Ke. Just here to have fun. COYS 🇺🇦Tom Forth @thomasforth
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44K Followers 769 Following Conservative Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for West Suffolk • Daily Telegraph • Promoted by David Cowan, Conservative Office, Moulton Road, CB8 8DYTom Hamilton @thhamilton
27K Followers 2K Following Social policy at Public First. Former Labour staffer and serial election loser. I co-wrote a book about PMQs, and now write a newsletter about political attack.jonn elledge @JonnElledge
56K Followers 7K Following a proud part of the faux zeitgeist. @newstatesman @capx @papercutsshow @ substack. new book A History of the World in 47 Borders out NOW!Sunder Katwala @sundersays
39K Followers 11K Following Director @britishfuture. Author of How to be a Patriot https://t.co/2mVuOhKhxi @HarperNorthUK New: Culture Clash https://t.co/ukFtFRfj3rIain Martin @iainmartin1
96K Followers 5K Following Director London Defence Conference. Director Engelsberg Ideas. Publisher of Reaction. Times columnist. Weekly subscriber newsletter via link belowHenry Mance @henrymance
86K Followers 2K Following Chief features writer, Financial Times. I write the fortnightly Henry Mance Interview. I also wrote a book, How to Love Animals. [email protected]Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne
123K Followers 4K Following Director of @ukonward. Author of 'Broken Heartlands' and 'The Fall of Boris Johnson'. Who funds me? https://t.co/JKT9uKwxreTim Bale @ProfTimBale
53K Followers 4K Following aka @timbale.bsky.social Teach politics at @QMPoliticsIR. New book: "The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation"Anand Menon @anandMenon1
64K Followers 5K Following Director @ukandeu Bitter and twisted observer of politics. ‘Not yoda’ (DC) ‘Slightly matey politics don' (Q. Letts) Trustee, @fullfact #LUFCHarry Cole @MrHarryCole
168K Followers 5K Following 🗞️ 📺 Political Editor of @TheSun and host of Never Mind the Ballots every week at https://t.co/RiBV9lh8DY …on YouTube .. socials .. and all over the press 🇬🇧alexmassie @alexmassie
64K Followers 2K Following Columnist for The Times & The Sunday Times. Substack Newsletter: https://t.co/kuwqRaci4cMithu mia @Mithumia1692739
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132 Followers 272 FollowingClaudia Clark @ClaudiatcClark
1 Followers 63 FollowingMaria da Penha Staple.. @mdapenhasg
40 Followers 379 Following Doing my masters in political sociology @lse. Interested in class and populismSaikrishna @saikrishna_offl
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244 Followers 1K Following Quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat.... Retweets do not mean agreement necessarilyLiz Davidson @Lizsflk23
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50 Followers 2K Following You can’t make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear, can ya!! #IT_Engineer #patriotHannelius Recruitment @HanneliusRec
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1K Followers 2K Following Campaigner @dignityindying. Cyclist. https://t.co/Ck7l3sMANz for dog & bike pics. All views my own (she/her)Idiot Wind @LexyWind
23 Followers 731 FollowingTom James @TomJame97309995
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753 Followers 2K Following Former parliamentary staffer, sometime lawyer. Tweets about history especially #WW1, #WW2, Central, Eastern Europe and Russia.Simon Cooke @SimonMagus
6K Followers 2K Following Scrap the green belt, reform planning and build more houses. Suburbanist, mushroom fan, scourge of nannying fussbuckets. Still conservative...just.Bradley Ford @BradleyFordUK
62 Followers 143 Following Serial boardgamer, Parkrun plodder, expect punsIain Mansfield @IGMansfield
5K Followers 2K Following Current affairs, politics, education and miscellany. All views my own.Eliel Cohen (엘리�.. @ElielCohen1
941 Followers 5K Following Sociology | Higher Education | Belonging, Agency & Access in HE | Impact of Impact | Academic Boundaries | views my ownBusiness Reporter @BiznessReporter
12K Followers 1K Following News and features from the award-winning business supplement for leaders. See @teiss for Cyber Security.Elbaanderson @HobbyJobBob123
8 Followers 203 Following Interested in politics, the law, architecture and housingGavin Kelly @GavinJKelly1
7K Followers 994 Following Chair @resfoundation. Also Chair @LivingWageUK Commission. Trustee @TheOrwellPrize @po_qu Tweets in personal capacity.Copasetic Foundation @CopaseticF
785 Followers 1K Following The Copasetic Foundation, founded by Alex Webb, produces live music & theatre shows to promote the understanding and appreciation of jazz and related musics.Josh Westerling @j_westerling
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0 Followers 4 FollowingLuke Kilsby @KilsbyLuke
59 Followers 96 FollowingChris @Chris612
482 Followers 409 FollowingAbby Emery @abby_behaves
329 Followers 1K Following behavioural scientist & civil servant. deputy head of @openinnovteam, prev head of beh sci @cabinetofficeuk, @HMRCgovuk. Not a nudger, occasional powerlifterHelene von Bismarck @HeleneBismarck
44K Followers 2K Following Historian & Writer, Anglophile&European. FRHistS. Sr. Associate Fellow @Rusi_org All views my own. RTs not endorsements.Lord Norton of Louth @LordNortonLouth
12K Followers 8K Following Professor of Government at the University of Hull. Dedicated to study of Parliament, comparative legislatures, the constitution, and the Conservative Party.sanidul @sanidul156560
17 Followers 89 Following Mother-Daughter (@anoshazanjani) Designer Duo || Blending Traditional and AI-inspired Fashion Design & PhotographySam Freedman @Samfr
145K Followers 1K Following Writes the UK's most popular politics Substack (https://t.co/bcjXR0ncfL). New book - "Failed State" - out 29th August https://t.co/uPuWlb39R3.Stephen Bush @stephenkb
147K Followers 7K Following Associate editor and columnist @FinancialTimes. Tweet about politics, policy, culture, nerd stuff. Tongue mostly in cheek. Get my newsletter here 👇Robert Colvile @rcolvile
52K Followers 3K Following Director of @CPSThinkTank, EIC of @CapX, Sunday columnist for @thetimes, author of 'The Great Acceleration'. Politics, policy and parenting.Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian
97K Followers 4K Following hard-working dilettante / freelance journalist & author / sometimes on the radio / [email protected] / 🇫🇷🇲🇦Calgie @christiancalgie
61K Followers 773 Following Senior Political Correspondent @Daily_Express. YIMBY. Tip-offs: DMs or [email protected].Will Jennings @drjennings
27K Followers 6K Following I research and write about politics, public policy, public opinion, polls, elections, trust.Yuan Yi Zhu @yuanyi_z
48K Followers 17K Following Assistant to the professor of international relations and international law. All views mine alone.Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson
294K Followers 3K Following Editor of The Spectator, columnist for Daily Telegraph. Take a trial subscription at https://t.co/ecmDFw3tdYSam Bowman @s8mb
49K Followers 2K Following Editor of https://t.co/YPQHCCb6Ke. Just here to have fun. COYS 🇺🇦John Rentoul @JohnRentoul
156K Followers 545 Following Chief Political Commentator, The Independent; visiting professor, King’s College London. Author with Jon Davis, Heroes or Villains? The Blair Govt ReconsideredTom Forth @thomasforth
30K Followers 2K Following CTO and co-Founder @TheDataCity. Head of Data @OpenInnovates || Runs @imactivate. No profile pic, location, name, and bio? I probably won't see your tweet.Nick Timothy @NJ_Timothy
44K Followers 769 Following Conservative Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for West Suffolk • Daily Telegraph • Promoted by David Cowan, Conservative Office, Moulton Road, CB8 8DYTom Hamilton @thhamilton
27K Followers 2K Following Social policy at Public First. Former Labour staffer and serial election loser. I co-wrote a book about PMQs, and now write a newsletter about political attack.jonn elledge @JonnElledge
56K Followers 7K Following a proud part of the faux zeitgeist. @newstatesman @capx @papercutsshow @ substack. new book A History of the World in 47 Borders out NOW!Sunder Katwala @sundersays
39K Followers 11K Following Director @britishfuture. Author of How to be a Patriot https://t.co/2mVuOhKhxi @HarperNorthUK New: Culture Clash https://t.co/ukFtFRfj3rIain Martin @iainmartin1
96K Followers 5K Following Director London Defence Conference. Director Engelsberg Ideas. Publisher of Reaction. Times columnist. Weekly subscriber newsletter via link belowHenry Mance @henrymance
86K Followers 2K Following Chief features writer, Financial Times. I write the fortnightly Henry Mance Interview. I also wrote a book, How to Love Animals. [email protected]Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne
123K Followers 4K Following Director of @ukonward. Author of 'Broken Heartlands' and 'The Fall of Boris Johnson'. Who funds me? https://t.co/JKT9uKwxreTim Bale @ProfTimBale
53K Followers 4K Following aka @timbale.bsky.social Teach politics at @QMPoliticsIR. New book: "The Conservative Party After Brexit: Turmoil and Transformation"Spencer A. Klavan @SpencerKlavan
58K Followers 1K Following Associate Editor @ClaremontInst, Editor-at-Large @theammind. Host @ynghereticsshow (https://t.co/Lm2SSFUtIJ). exclusive property of @joshuaherr6.Kevin Schofield @KevinASchofield
60K Followers 1K Following Journalist. Been around a bit. Now political editor of HuffPost UK. Sometimes on the telly and wireless. Husband and dad-of-two. Celtic & Liverpool.Louisa Compton @louisa_compton
26K Followers 874 Following Head of News and Current Affairs and Specialist Factual and Sport at Channel 4. Please send me stories. 🚴♀️🏳️🌈 insta: louisa_comptonChris Hopkins @ChrisHopkins92
2K Followers 907 Following Political Research Director at @Savanta_UK. Interested in film, breathing oxygen, and converting protein intake into muscle energy. Views my own etc.Phil Tinline @phil_tinline
5K Followers 4K Following Author, The Death of Consensus (The Times Politics Book of 2022) https://t.co/1V5XXfHcK9 Now writing a book for @HoZ_Books & @ScribnerBooks Policy Associate, FGFbernoulli_defect @BernoulliDefect
4K Followers 767 Following the only guy that can code in the most boring department at the biggest financial institution you’ve never heard of. alt @granular_flawsSimon Kuper @KuperSimon
87K Followers 333 Following @FT writer. New football podcast: Heroes and Humans - follow it at @heroesandhumans. My memoir of modern Paris, Impossible City, is out in the UK in AprilSimon Cooke @SimonMagus
6K Followers 2K Following Scrap the green belt, reform planning and build more houses. Suburbanist, mushroom fan, scourge of nannying fussbuckets. Still conservative...just.James Somerville-Meik.. @JSMeikle
812 Followers 817 Following If found, please return to the nearest pub or Catholic church. It’s pronounced Meekle - an old Scots word meaning 'big or large'.Ben Sixsmith @BDSixsmith
45K Followers 2K Following Anglo writer in Poland. Online Editor and podcast critic for @TheCriticMag. Subscribe to THE ZONE on Substack.Polemic Paine @PolemicTMM
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39K Followers 271 Following Literature | History | Philosophy | Religion 🏛️ 📚 ⚔️ Shining a light on the great ideas and minds that built the WestCameron Brown @cameronbrownuk
3K Followers 2K FollowingSteve Akehurst @SteveAkehurst
5K Followers 2K Following Politics, policy, public attitudes. Work in polling and comms, ex- @Shelter & civil service, currently working on voter attitudes to climate/Net Zero. 🏳️🌈Office for Place @ofp_gov
2K Followers 118 Following Helping create beautiful, successful & enduring places that foster a sense of community, local pride and belonging. Arms-length body @luhc Chair @boys_nicholasLord Norton of Louth @LordNortonLouth
12K Followers 8K Following Professor of Government at the University of Hull. Dedicated to study of Parliament, comparative legislatures, the constitution, and the Conservative Party.Rachel Cunliffe @RMCunliffe
40K Followers 3K Following Associate Political Editor @NewStatesman. Devout classicist, "indulgent editrix", at one point the only Ancient Greek teacher in South KoreaBen Carpenter-Merritt @Ben_CM_
802 Followers 2K Following Sometimes it's more about the journey than the destination | Politics, defence, shipbuilding, sovereign capability, #ukmfg | All views and all thatWilliam Kedjanyi @KeejayOV3
6K Followers 6K Following Political analyst & sports previewer for @StarSports_Bet. Ealing Resident. “One of the only remaining vestiges of the Reithian mandate.” (Not my words). He/HimShashank Joshi @shashj
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3K Followers 5K Following MD @PenroseCare. London’s streateries pioneer. Boards: @belsizevillage @old_chiswick. UNISON member. Animal lover. Volunteer litter picker. Views my own.The Jockey Club @TheJockeyClub
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203K Followers 1K Following Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics, @CDR_Booth, @ChicagoBooth Co-author of Nudge:The Final edition, author of Misbehaving. Slayer of #sludgeStephen J Shaw @StephenJShaw
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18K Followers 992 Following Ex-Fleet Street, now doing history stuff. All views my own. Subscribe to my Substack - https://t.co/KIvgtFJRKJPromise Knight @promise_knight
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4K Followers 980 Following Baritone, Director of Chapel Music @SomervilleOx / @SomervilleChoir, Director of @Magschoir. Formerly of @stileantico (2007-2023) @Frideswides & @RoyalAcadMusicEd Newton-Rex @ednewtonrex
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6K Followers 2K Following Channel 4 News - Westminster News Editor. I can also be found programme editing, working in Foreign Affairs and on the Foreign Film Fund.Cas Mudde 👀 @CasMudde
53K Followers 682 Following Politics Professor in USA; European politics; far-right politics; soccer & politics; extremism & democracy; blocks far-right supporters and enablers; he/himNoa Hoffman @hoffman_noa
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142K Followers 2K Following Co-Founder @novaramedia. Author of Fully Automated Luxury Communism. Next book on politics and economics of an ageing planet.Having evenly spread support under FPTP is a double-edged sword. If your support is high, you win everywhere (almost literally in 2015). If your support is low, then there are very few safe seats...
How the coalition breakdown will impact SNP’s election chances thetimes.co.uk/article/0c92f6…
@Gilesyb @cjayanetti The notion of local “memories” was in fact central to the concept of the red wall as developed by @JamesKanag - it referred to areas that were much more Labour aligned than we would expect from current patterns of voter preference. Such localised patterns aren’t everything but…
We can't free-ride on women anymore, argues @pastasnack_e. If we want to support mothers and parents to have children, so that society as a whole can benefit, we need to start thinking of parenting as a public good - and pay up. worksinprogress.co/issue/parentin…
I don't think I have seen as strong a family resemblance in a batsman before. Eerie.
2nd XI Update: Rocky Flintoff has reached his first second XI century at Edgbaston! 💯👏 Here are some of his best boundaries from another great knock: Scorecard 📋: bit.ly/49PrxLi 🌹 #RedRoseTogether
Many thanks to Lord Howard of Lympne & @Patrick4Dales for supporting me today on my introduction to @UKHouseofLords. Also to my family, friends, and to @CharlesHMoore, @montie and former colleagues.
We all have to wrestle with the fact that the man can both be a live threat to American democracy and also just very funny
“Friends still get a kick out of a story about how Johnson once told Trump that he was praying for him, to which the then-president responded: ‘Thank you, Mike. Tell God I said hi.’” theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
A group of German professional footballers are planning a collective “coming out” on May 17, the day before the last Bundesliga games. Could be a game changer! paz-online.de/sport/homosexu…
@JamesKanag thanks James, that's greatly appreciated.
Just go to a state school. The premium you're paying for elite private colleges vs. the better public schools is for social clout and not the quality of the education. And that's worth a lot less now that people have figured out that elite higher ed is cringe.
Higher ed has been losing stature among the general public at a *catastrophic* rate over the past few years (and this poll was taken before the most recent controversies). My impression is that it's even worse among elites but hard to poll that. news.gallup.com/poll/508352/am…
We all mistakes. This was a silly but significant one. It will almost certainly not be the last public error by a pollster this year. If Savanta finds out we've made a mistake, we will own it and fix it - being open is vital to building trust in our industry.
Upon further inspection, there is an error in our West Midlands Mayoralty poll from last week, where we have incorrectly applied the 2019 past vote weight, using past vote targets for whole of the West Midlands region as opposed to the West Midlands Combined Authority area. (1/4)
@duncanrobinson It vanished the moment we changed the order of the options in the census. John Denham inconsolable.
Guardian should write "could alienate some progressive voters" rather than "could alienate ethnic minorities" when repeating this point in its reporting. Research does suggest white liberal strongly remain voters are now more averse than ethnic minorities theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
It’s just sickening reading the details of the infected blood scandal. The scale of it, the devastation caused to so many families with multiple relatives dying of HIV and young children left orphans, the way parents with sick children were stigmatised, the cover up that followed
Everything I have learned about Taylor Swift I did so against my will
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@MattSingh_ Oops deleted by accident! Now I have to remember what I wrote (was trying to fix a typo LOL)
Also late to this but also very good unherd.com/2024/04/the-fu…
I'm utterly at a loss as to why this is a race issue.
Across the UK, Black, Asian and ethnic minority-led small businesses are bristling with potential. But they're held back by the Conservatives' economic chaos. Labour will make Britain a place where businesses can flourish and anyone can succeed. birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-…