james crabtree @jamescrabtree
Analyst & writer. Billionaire Raj author. @ecfr distinguished fellow. @foreignpolicy columnist. Ex: IISS, FT, LKY School, UK Govt. LSE / Harvard. Cat lover. jamescrabtree.com Singapore Joined November 2008-
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Another striking chart from Bloomberg on the economic impact of “full-blown” Trump scenario, meaning: — big US tax cuts — higher US spending — 60% tariffs on China + 10% on others — China devalues by 10% — Immigration comes down by 50%. TLDR — not pretty.
Striking chart from Bloomberg. "Trump 1.0 really did have a massive impact on the share of exports that the US derived from China."
“Those measures could include the deployment of cold storage facilities to the Philippines for agricultural products that China might boycott.”
“Those measures could include the deployment of cold storage facilities to the Philippines for agricultural products that China might boycott.”
"We expect the Commission to impose duties in the 15-30 per cent range. But... some China-based producers will still be able to generate comfortable profit margins on the cars they export to Europe because of the substantial cost advantages they enjoy,” the report says.
"We expect the Commission to impose duties in the 15-30 per cent range. But... some China-based producers will still be able to generate comfortable profit margins on the cars they export to Europe because of the substantial cost advantages they enjoy,” the report says.
Ukraine has made its European choice and we have made our Ukrainian choice. The decisions we will take in the next months will decide who wins the future of Europe. So together, let us stay united. Let us stay strong with 🇺🇦. And let us stay ambitious on enlargement and reform.
Latest Indian election predictions: Modi to increase BJP seats from 303 to 323. Thinking through recent democratic leaders who have won 3 consecutive terms, from Kohl & Merkel to Blair * Trudeau. Can't think of any who has won more seats with each election. Anyone?
Did not know this. 🤯
I have received a booklet with the candidates for Mayor of London. I shall here rate the design of the 2-page manifestos they have provided:
This viral post gets a lot wrong. 1) This post is false — MFA DG Yang Tao saw Blinken off. 2) The treatment was reciprocal — when FM Wang Yi visited in October 2023, DAS Mark Lambert saw him off. 3) The debate is silly — Blinken had a bilateral meeting with President Xi.
10% of the Tory vote has *died* since the last election!
"growth targeting has forced more incremental growth into the new industries where China’s vast scale, modern technologies, & cost competitiveness provide enormous comparative advantage. ...the US will never be able to outcompete its rivals in many of the new modern industries."
"growth targeting has forced more incremental growth into the new industries where China’s vast scale, modern technologies, & cost competitiveness provide enormous comparative advantage. ...the US will never be able to outcompete its rivals in many of the new modern industries."
Good for Scott Morrison. I'm often not clear how people do these uber-stressful political jobs without medication. Talking openly about these things must be helpful in showing how many people struggle with anxiety, & how they learn to to cope with it. bbc.com/news/world-aus…
Viewed from the capitals of other Indo-Pacific partners, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s trip to China will simply be taken as evidence of Europe’s unreliability and strategic unseriousness, columnist @jamescrabtree writes. foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/22/ola…
Post a picture with your dog that doesn’t involve shooting them and throwing them in a gravel pit.
Post a picture with your dog that doesn’t involve shooting them and throwing them in a gravel pit. https://t.co/qFQ63FTBQU
Post a picture with your dog that doesn’t involve shooting them and throwing them in a gravel pit. I’ll start.
Post a picture with your dog that doesn’t involve shooting them and throwing them in a gravel pit. I’ll start. https://t.co/gICODi9YD5
Tanvi Madan @tanvi_madan
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352 Followers 401 Following Head of Foreign & Security Policy at British Embassy Beijing. Previously Tehran & Canberra. Views here are my own & RTs aren't endorsement.Caroline Wilson 吴�.. @CWilson_FCDO
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10K Followers 2K Following Ex-Foreign Office adviser to Robin Cook. Ethical socialist. Politics, foreign policy, Europe, Russia & Ukraine, football/HMFC🇱🇻MUFC🇾🇪.@jamescrabtree @mehdirhasan Erdoğan did. 2002-2007-2011.
Astonishing chart from @jburnmurdoch- on.ft.com/49OMvdz The UK is brilliant at handling immigration, relatively. Could be a huge strength in the decades ahead
@shauntandon @Dimi A truly good advance team would’ve asked @michaelxpettis for guidance on the Chinese rock scene.
@jamescrabtree @ForeignPolicy Well observed @jamescrabtree. There’s even an old name available to describe the new policy: Ostpolitik.
Our cover and special report this week is a brilliant survey of India's economy and its prospects by @arjun_ramani3 and Tom Easton, well worth your time. economist.com/special-report…
🧵 🔗Text of Macron's speech on Europe, I will only analyse the parts on geopolitics and defense: 1/20 Macron always good at bluntly painting pic of state of world, but his UNGA 2022 and Bratislava + MSC 2023 speeches were more momentous, legacy-building elysee.fr/emmanuel-macro…
Macron elicits expectations he can never meet. He so brightly captures the essence of all the issues, (refuses to focus on a couple) that he is expected to resolve them all. But he can't, because France has limited means, and the upending of the world order is faster than the EU
Great essay by @LizEconomy, who argues the core of the US-China strategic competition is which country can more effectively lead reform of the int'l order to address the big challenges facing both developed and developing countries. foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-a… via @ForeignAffairs
@jamescrabtree @SAISHopkins @jaehan_park1 4. Land power predominates as long as an adversary does not have primacy at sea (e.g. the East India Company). 5. A neighbour’s neighbour is often a friend (eg Russia, Iran). 6. Concepts of geography are important but artificial (Indies vs Asia vs Asia-Pacific vs Indo-Pacific)
FEATURE: If you've wondered how TSMC's venture into Arizona is going, our reporting over the past four months will answer all your questions and more (and probably make you laugh, too) Incredible story by @violazhouyi! restofworld.org/2024/tsmc-ariz… @restofworld @mvzelenks #longread
@jamescrabtree I remember doing a story (shared below) on @DGukesh and his incredible rise for my then employers, @CGTNOfficial, at a time when very few Indian media wrote about him. I am glad that he has come a long way in all these years. More power to him. 👑 news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d414d7…
American primacy hai.stanford.edu/news/ai-index-…
“The Voodoo of China Hawks” — my critique of the Pottinger-Gallagher article in Foreign Affairs: all bluster, no analytics, and the wrong lessons from the Cold War. stephenroachauthor.com/the-voodoo-of-…
There is an urgent need to further develop the EU-India TTC. @jamescrabtree @ManishaReuter explains why and how ⬇️
India's lengthy elections kick off today! So a slender excusie for this new @ecfr piece from @ManishaReuter looking at the chance of an 🇮🇳🇪🇺 reboot, after both sides have finished their polls. Basic point is that ..... ecfr.eu/article/reboot…
Samurais and swordplay: How militarily accurate is FX's TV series Shōgun? - I had so much fun doing this. Very grateful for the opportunity for once to speak to a skillset that rarely I get to use these days outside of my classes. forces.net/feature/honour…
Young black men are more likely to vote for Trump than their white counterparts. As they age they swing massively to Biden, while whites get ever-Trumpier. Interesting breakdown of the American voter. economist.com/interactive/us…
Want to know what happens next in the Iran-Israel conflict? Highly recommend this podcast with @emile_hokayem who explains the calculations of both sides, how this relates to Gaza and the risk of a regional war ft.com/content/18b009… via @FT
You’ve probably heard a lot lately about Jonathan Haidt's argument that smartphones and social media are taking a toll on the mental health of young people. But you may not have heard as much about the other problem he identifies: parents. Our new video explains.