Emile Hokayem اميل الحكيّم @emile_hokayem
Director for Regional Security and Middle East guy for @iiss_org. Twitter sanity tip: Just because you have an opinion does not mean you should express it. iiss.org/people/middle-… London, England Joined January 2011-
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Good piece on Hamas' rising popularity in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. I suspect that while Hamas will morph into an insurgency in Gaza, its future will be in Lebanon-Syria-Jordan, where it will recruit among refugees living in hard conditions. But this Hamas is likely…
Good piece on Hamas' rising popularity in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon. I suspect that while Hamas will morph into an insurgency in Gaza, its future will be in Lebanon-Syria-Jordan, where it will recruit among refugees living in hard conditions. But this Hamas is likely…
Amid the hype last week among Israeli and American pundits about the Arab role in intercepting the Iranian UAVs and missiles heading toward Israel, read this sober take by @KimGhattas: "This is not the start of a new era of open co-operation between Arab countries and Israel."
Amid the hype last week among Israeli and American pundits about the Arab role in intercepting the Iranian UAVs and missiles heading toward Israel, read this sober take by @KimGhattas: "This is not the start of a new era of open co-operation between Arab countries and Israel."
Me on Iran and Israel’s latest tit-for-tat exchange, what it says about decision making in Tehran, and why the road to an eventual, and much more serious war, is is all but inevitable foreignaffairs.com/israel/iran-an…
IISS Archive | Publication 2023: Chapter One assesses how Tehran’s armed forces and its equipment inventory may develop over the course of this decade and the wider regional ramifications of some possible outcomes. ➡ go.iiss.org/43ikd8g
Want to know what happens next in the Iran-Israel conflict? Highly recommend this podcast with @emile_hokayem who explains the calculations of both sides, how this relates to Gaza and the risk of a regional war ft.com/content/18b009… via @FT
Last night's Israeli strike on Iran was not a big punch but a calibrated slap that told Iran its defences were weak and even a small Israeli operation can score points. The Israelis avoided public triumphalism while demonstrating they have escalation dominance, the Iranians can…
Last night's Israeli strike on Iran was not a big punch but a calibrated slap that told Iran its defences were weak and even a small Israeli operation can score points. The Israelis avoided public triumphalism while demonstrating they have escalation dominance, the Iranians can…
After Tehran's unprecedented strike on Israeli territory, it was *inevitable* that Israel would hit Iran directly in response. Iranian leaders must have anticipated retaliation. What happens next—esp in Washington—is crucial to avoiding a wider war. foreignaffairs.com/israel/how-ame…
The Gulf countries' UAV-buying patterns reflect the region’s efforts to avoiding picking sides in geopolitical terms and underscore an ambition to become more self-reliant in military equipment. #MilitaryBalance analysis by @albert_vidal_: ➡ go.iiss.org/4d09Z25
At a time when Iran sees the value and limits of its regional influence strategy, here is our @IISS_org assessment of the complex relationships between Iran and its militia partners in the region.
At a time when Iran sees the value and limits of its regional influence strategy, here is our @IISS_org assessment of the complex relationships between Iran and its militia partners in the region.
My conversation with @gideonrachman on escalation risks in the Middle East. Thanks for hosting me, Gideon, and for the opportunity to develop further my analysis as featured in the FT a few days before. Warning to listeners: there is no happy news in our discussion.
My conversation with @gideonrachman on escalation risks in the Middle East. Thanks for hosting me, Gideon, and for the opportunity to develop further my analysis as featured in the FT a few days before. Warning to listeners: there is no happy news in our discussion.
I suspect seeing Gazans at the beach today might have less to do with IDF troop deployments & more to do with (1) it being ~95 degrees in #Gaza today, (2) having little/no running water, (3) little/no meaningful shelter from the heat; & (4) little/no electricity to stay cool.
I suspect seeing Gazans at the beach today might have less to do with IDF troop deployments & more to do with (1) it being ~95 degrees in #Gaza today, (2) having little/no running water, (3) little/no meaningful shelter from the heat; & (4) little/no electricity to stay cool.
Iran projects its influence in the Middle East through a variety of complex relationships with regional partners. IISS Archive | Publication 2019: 18-month long study based on field work, interviews and open source analysis. Read more: go.iiss.org/45K8nED
"One more thing the day after Iran's attack has in common with the day after Oct. 7: both were preceded by a failure of Israel's intelligence community and leadership to assess the enemy's intentions." And those same leaders are weighing what to do next. haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
A very good Jordanian perspective on what happened this weekend. The US-Israeli rush to announce the birth of a new strategic alliance with Arab countries is deluded and insulting for countries that clearly see both Israel and Iran as the drivers of destabilisation.
A very good Jordanian perspective on what happened this weekend. The US-Israeli rush to announce the birth of a new strategic alliance with Arab countries is deluded and insulting for countries that clearly see both Israel and Iran as the drivers of destabilisation.
The Saudis are unhappy about all the talk about a de facto regional alliance based on their role in intercepting Iranian projectiles 2 nights ago. The Israelis talk about that moment as if months of Saudi/Arab statements and diplomacy were just irrelevant, as if the threat of…
The Saudis are unhappy about all the talk about a de facto regional alliance based on their role in intercepting Iranian projectiles 2 nights ago. The Israelis talk about that moment as if months of Saudi/Arab statements and diplomacy were just irrelevant, as if the threat of…
I have a comment piece in the FT today looking at the dramatic events of the weekend in the Middle East and assessing prospects. "The onus is now on Israel. Its air defences performed well last night, which has reassured its population and bought it time to calibrate its…
IISS Archive | Publication 2019: The IISS examines how Iran projects its influence in the Middle East through a variety of complex relationships with regional partners. The 18-month long study, is based on field work, interviews and open source analysis. go.iiss.org/45K8nED
Astute point. “Israel owes this success to ample warning from Iran and to the help of the US, UK, France, Jordan and other Arab states. The operation has exposed its security dependency on the very partners it has slighted in recent months” ft.com/content/d9275a…
A good assessment by @emile_hokayem. "The onus is now on Israel. For Benjamin Netanyahu, this is a net win... the concern now is that Israel's sense it has prevailed in this round may make it less rather than more risk averse." ft.com/content/d9275a…
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9K Followers 133 Following Ambassadeur, Chargé d'affaires de l'Ambassade de France au Liban 🇫🇷🇱🇧 سفير، قائم بالأعمال لدى سفارة فرنسا في لبنان @AmbaFranceLiban
Eric Brewer @BrewerEricM
6K Followers 1K Following Deputy VP @NTI_WMD. Previously NSC Director for Counterproliferation, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for WMD. Personal account/views my own.
Raya Jalabi | راي�.. @rayajalabi
8K Followers 2K Following @FT Middle East Correspondent (🇱🇧🇸🇾🇮🇶 ). I don't like condensing thoughts and I don't like Twitter. مراسلة الفاينانشال تايمز ببيروت | [email protected]
Jean-Loup Samaan @JeanLoupSamaan
2K Followers 1K Following Senior Research Fellow, Middle East Institute - NUS (@MEI_NUS), Nonresident Senior Fellow @AtlanticCouncil, @i_montaigne
@hossambahgat قبل الحفر كانت بتجيب خمسة حفرنا الجديدة .. جابت كام ؟؟ خمسة برضه تبقى كسبت كام ؟؟؟خمسة برضه طب انت بيضحكك رقم خمسة ؟؟ طب كده غطت مصاريفها فى كام سنة يا مبروك ؟ سنة واحدة يا استاذ
@abesilbe It's a terrible claim. Hamas, for all their brutality and awfulness, will make deals. Daesh doesn't. That's a core distinction. Hamas usually keeps "quiet for quiet" agreements. Daesh rejects negotiations as part of their neo-Kharijite ideology.
🔴 Un Syrien et sa femme enceinte retrouvés égorgés dans un complexe touristique à #Jbeil olj.me/1348597?t=3-10…
@emile_hokayem @WiseguySix @IISS_org They have a great American (DoDEA) component to the international school system in Bahrain (if that makes a difference). 👊🏼
Per capita CO2 emissions (metric tons): US -- 15.7 China -- 7.7 India -- 1.8 Cumulative GHG emissions (% global total): US -- 20.3 China -- 11.4 India -- 3.4 Oil production (billion barrels per day): US -- 14.8 China -- 4.9 India -- 1.0 🧵
"Republicans often bring up how much China & India are polluting, and that’s true," a young conservative CCLer told @NBCNews. "At the same time, we have to think about what we’re doing. We need to start taking measurements of that & adapting accordingly."nbcnews.com/science/enviro…
التاريخ مليان أنظمة عاطلة وسياسيين فاشلين بفتشوا عن كبش محرقة يحملوهن فشلهن ويلهّونا من المشاكل الاساسية. هيدا يللي عم بصير اليوم بالحرب يللي عم تنشنّ ضد مجتمع الميم عين. هالحرب ضد الحرية الفردية ممكن تطالنا كلنا، وبتستاهل نناضل من أجلها. @nationalbloc_lb
La pratique des pushbacks consiste à faire chavirer les embarcations des personnes exilées pour que celles-ci se noient. Cette pratique est criminelle, violente et illégale.
This week's new cover: Welcome to life after 1.5°C newscientist.com/issue/3442/
MİT Başkanı Hakan Fidan Dışişleri Bakanı, İbrahim Kalın MİT Başkanı olacak gibi görünüyor 🇹🇷
What book did the most damage to International Relations as an academic discipline and why is it "Clash of Civilizations"? [THREAD]
Pleased to chat with Jacob on this important topic.
Biden to ask US Congress to approve F-16 sale to Turkey @RichOutzen explains what this means for the region - with @JacobEilon on #MiddleEastNow تركيا#
At this point in my career I've worked on quite a few architecture projects in the GCC region for nearly every gov in the region, from megaprojects to municipal masterplans/planning guidance. I find these to be exciting & hugely frustrating. Some observations:
تشير التقديرات الأوّلية إلى أن المكامن الغازية غير المُكتشفة في شرق المتوسط قد توازي ضعف ما تمّ اكتشافه حتّى اليوم، وهو ما يفسّر تنامي الصراعات حول المنطقة، فما الذي تكتنزه؟ ومن هي الشركات المسيطرة على مواردها؟ التفاصيل في التقرير التالي: alsifr.org/gas-maps @Marc_Ayoub
2022 in #EastMed - The year’s main energy developments wrapped up in a thread 🧵 #Discoveries, #Borders, #Licensing, #Deals, #Infrastructure and more 👇
Today I woke up beaten down I woke up feeling powerless. I woke up feeling depleted. I woke up feeling that we have failed. 3 years on, we have barely managed to change anything. All those fights, all those endless meetings, endless hours spent trying to find compromises
The issue of maritime boundaries, especially in this awkward overlap between Crete, Cyrenaica and Egypt - has the potential to be the 2023 black swan which catalyses Libya's noxiously stagnant post-war order into a new bout of instability
🇪🇬🇱🇾🇹🇷 #Türkiye calls on #Libya- #Egypt to initiate maritime border dialogue 'as soon as possible'. Egypt's unilateral decision does NOT overlap w Türkiye’s continental shelf in Eastern Med., say Turkish diplomat -- ➡️ Egyptians, Cypriots, & Greeks 🤦🏻♂️ 👇 aa.com.tr/en/politics/tu…
There is a real need to have a thorough deliberation about how minority interests in Congress can hijack the American foreign policy agenda. It is difficult to argue that this type of radical outbursts and obstructionism is compatible with US national interest and NATO solidarity
Senato Dış İlişkiler Başkanı Menendez; Türkiyeye F16 verilmesine karşı çıkacağım Menendez,Azerbaycandan Ege adalarına,KKTCden Türkiyedeki seçimlere zehir zemberek konuştu. F16da tek engel Menendez Ya Biden ikna edecek yada Kongreyi satış için bypass edecek. Yapar mı?Çok zor.
The World Cup officially ends later today 😢 Here’s a thread of some of the funniest moments since it started…
Egypt’s President al-Sisi has issued a decree regarding the determination of the country’s western maritime boundary and Egyptian-Libyan EEZ in the Mediterranean. A geopolitical move that would represent a new brake for the illegal maritime agreement between Turkey & Tripoli.
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