Chonger @ichinibawa
Joined February 2022-
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Kareem was raised for Jihad, until he saw the risen King! SHARE this po... youtu.be/RNU6Kmc9zYA?si… via @YouTube
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A 16-year-old serial violent offender has been arrested over the brutal April 7 robbery of an elderly woman outside a Queens church who was pushed down the stairs in the attack, causing her skull to fracture. Jayvaun Prince is also the charged suspect in another robbery three…
Joe Biden’s Michigan problem isn’t going away.
Joe Biden’s Michigan problem isn’t going away.
4月13日，杭州拱墅区城西银泰城附近，一女子开保时捷撞了别人的车后不仅不道歉，反而砸人家的车，并叫嚣自己是百万网红，老公是国足，扬言撞死车主也不过20万的小事。网传保时捷车主老公疑似足球运动员黄成。 有事说事呀，可别黑我们国足。😅
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@ErikFossing There isn't yet full agreement on how to respond to the economic challenge posed by a China that wants to export its way out of its slump: the trade tools used differ, the US puts more emphasis on macroeconomics and high savings. But there is convergence bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Not Lighthizer. Not Tai. Not Yellen. EU Vice President Vestager (via @ErikFossing) research.unicredit.eu/DocsKey/econom…
"They [China] invite JVs, they then demand the transfer of technology, they provide heavy subsidies to build domestic capacity, they then close off their own markets while exporting at prices nobody can compete with" Guess the source?
@JohnAlty1 There's a strange assumption that policies aimed at boosting the manufacturing sector will boost the manufacturing sector in every economy except that of the US, even though the US economy is among the most flexible in the world and has the second largest manufacturing sector.
9/9 My point here, by the way, is not to support or oppose Trump's proposed tariffs. It is simply to point out that the claim that they are likely to be inflationary is not supported either by common sense or by the global data.
8/9 The math use by economists is so clunky and undiscerning that it can be used to prove pretty much whatever an economist wants it to prove. Trade studies are among the worst offenders because trade can only be understood systemically, and not incrementally.
7/9 And why should it? Inflation is just one of the ways to adjust an imbalance between rising demand relative to supply. In that case policies that work by subsidizing supply at the expense of demand are incredibly unlikely to be inflationary.
6/9 Even the most cursory glance suggests that the former have lower inflation than the latter. This suggests that the argument that policies that favor the supply side of the economy at the expense of the demand side are more likely to be inflationary makes little sense.
5/9 The former are most likely to be economies that run persistent trade surpluses precisely because of a range of policies that subsidize production at the expense of consumption, just as tariffs do. The latter are most likely to be economies that run persistent trade deficits.
4/9 This obviously isn't easy, but one way to see how tariffs affect inflation is to compare inflation levels in countries with higher levels of equivalent trade and industrial policies versus those in countries with the lower, or negative levels of such policies.
2/9 Tariffs are just one of many kinds of industrial or trade policies that work by shifting income from the household sector to subsidize the productive sector. While they may reduce foreign supply of the tariffed good, they also increase total supply of domestic tradable goods.
3/9 To sum up the inflationary impact of tariffs by measuring the price impact on imported goods, in other words, makes no sense. We must measure the impact on the total supply of tradable goods – both imported and domestically produced – relative to the impact on total demand.
1/9 "Former President Donald Trump’s idea to implement a 10% tariff on all imported goods would spike prices by as much as $1,500 annually for American families, according to a news analysis." I find these types of incremental studies to be hopeless. semafor.com/article/03/27/…
2/10 "With the property sector forecast to continue shrinking in the coming years," BE adds, "the fast growth of high tech industries and their increasing economic weight make them a promising growth engine." BE may be making the same mistake analysts made in 2022-23.
3/10 When we first saw China switch investment out of the property sector and into manufacturing, after the 2021 clampdown on the property sector, many analysts argued that this was the solution to China's over-reliance on non-productive investment to drive the economy.
4/10 But there' nothing intrinsically productive or non-productive about either. Building excess capacity in manufacturing is as unsustainable as building empty apartment buildings. What matters is not whether the investment is in a sexy sector but whether the total...
5/10 economic value created exceeds the total economic cost of that investment, including subsidies. In a few years we may very well discover this surge in high-tech investment created an epoch-making technological breakthrough that was both value-creating and sustainable.
6/10 But while this is possible, it is also unlikely. A surge in investment in frontier technology can be just as unsustainable as investment in property, as the USSR proved in the 1960s, especially if the surge was driven by the need to find a new growth engine.
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