Silkwood Capital @ericzijdenbos
Joined November 2011-
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#aapl #rates Apple broke a 2 year consolidation mid May. Alert; divergence to 10y UST yield is becoming extreme. A correction below 168 would signal a 'fake break out' and bigger reversal. Who wants a $3k+ VR, Apple bank, China dependency etc, amidst 0 rev growth?
CHAIR POWELL. "We think that financial conditions have tightened significantly in the past year" ... Blatant and important errors need to be addressed. Expect corrective language from #FederalReserve
CHAIR POWELL. "We think that financial conditions have tightened significantly in the past year" This is a blatant and important error. We should get corrective language here. Watch out
The essence of bank is duration transformation; short deposits to long maturity loans .. with $ forward curves (2/10_2yfwd) near inversion we could see a sudden wave of long receiving to hedge against this business becoming unprofitable
In 2011 the EU signed up to commit to balanced budgets and to keep debt/gdp at 60%. Today, those countries that broke the agreement ask countries that sticked to it to accept their common liabilities. If you you can’t self govern, accept a common Fin Min to do it for you.
Concerns over $11tr outstanding EM $ debt rollover in the coming years .. What is hard to borrow is best bought. This is a circular and self enforcing dynamic
Greek debt crisis is the Iraq War of finance | via @Telegraph telegraph.co.uk/finance/econom…
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67K Followers 592 Following Provost of Kings College, Cambridge, Financial Times columnist, anthropologist, author of Anthro-Vision https://t.co/byn2Kku0qJDelinquencies on auto loans, credit cards and consumer loans just hit their highest levels since 2012. As both rates and prices rise rapidly, delinquency rates are skyrocketing. The average new car now costs $48,300, up from $37,700 just 4 years ago. The average used car is…
I’ve bookmarked these gorgeous examples of American Art Deco. Enjoy this Sunday’s eye candy.
America was supposed to be Art Deco - a thread of 10 iconic Art Deco designs 🧵 1. "Mercury" - a streamliner passenger train which operated between 1936 and 1959
Spanish football chief Luis Rubiales refuses to quit, saying kiss with player at Women's World Cup was "mutual" and he has faced "social assassination" bbc.in/3Pdw1Vl
Canada has a housing problem. Maybe worse than the U.S. - Canada: 70% have a 5-year fixed rate mortgage. - U.S: 85% have a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. In Canada the average rate on an existing 5+ year mortgage is 2.79% versus 5.99% today (was 5.11% in June). When it's…
Incredible chart on mortgage rates: The effective rate on all mortgages across the US is currently 3.60%. That's 52% below the current average 30-year mortgage rate of 7.5%. 90% of ALL borrowers currently have a mortgage rate below 5%. 26% of all borrowers have a mortgage…
The US government has already spent $5.3 TRILLION this year. We are on track for the 4th consecutive year with $6 trillion or more in government spending. Since 2020, the US government has spent a jaw dropping $25 TRILLION. To put this in perspective, the market cap of the S&P…
Most recently, Fitch downgraded the US long-term credit rating. They cited "fiscal deterioration" as the primary reason. We must stop borrowing to fund our spending problem. All of the warning signs are there. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
This is a super interesting post on the qualitative difference in consumption of entertainment on NFLX vs traditional TV. The "binge" model is just so much more powerful than the "drip" model and NFLX is likely to be dominant media force for decades to come.
$NFLX—it is fascinating to see an 8-year old HBO show (Ballers) in the US domestic top 10 list for $NFLX (#5) right now. It is possible that more viewers spent more time watching Ballers on $NFLX in the last two weeks than previously watched the show on HBO over 8 years-how…
"The backdrop of strikes, successful wage hikes, and general labor bargaining power in a sub-4% unemployment rate economy makes the recent surge in Treasury yields feel if not justified than at least narratively correct:" @bespokeinvest as 10-yr yields hit the highest since '07
What's wrong with Citi? It is poised to have its lowest close of 2023, back to the panic levels of mid-March when Silicon Valley Bank failed.
I first said “Mexico is the new China” in 2017 (see below). People said “that’s crazy”. Well, now the data proves its true. Mexico’s quality control and proximity are better. #Mexico #Mexican flip.it/4G9kT_
Michael Burry has now put 93% of his entire portfolio into $SPY and $QQQ puts. Shall we resume the melt up?
⚠️ This chart proves why UK wage data is a red herring. Labour market is not as tight as you think: number of unemployed for less than 6M is at its highest since 2016/17 outside of Covid. This is a canary in the coalmine indicator for the jobs market. Not a reason to hike... $GBP
Bond markets have gone completely out of control with the 10-year note yield now hitting its highest since November 2022. The 10-year note yield is up nearly 100 basis points in ~3 MONTHS. Completely normal.
Looked at differently, 1/3 of value salvaged.
Downtown San Fran Office Tower Sells At 66% Off As CRE Crisis Claims Another Victim #CMBS zerohedge.com/markets/downto…
At the end of 2Q23, Bloomberg ranked me as "Top Forecaster" for: 🥇 🇺🇸 Economy *I got the 2nd place for 🥈🇪🇺 Economy and the 3rd place for 🥉🇨🇳 Economy
The US 30-year mortgage rate touched 7.53%. To assume spiking interest rates won’t have a decisive impact on economic activity would be naive! (chart ht @C_Barraud)
Whoa: Completely misleading article by @FT. Evidence the fact that #Fed B/S has fallen (so what?), but #liquidity has mysteriously flatlined, so far. See dotted lines. The elephant in the room is the upcoming congested coupon calendar
@Schuldensuehner Thanks, that context is not very encouraging for stocks, particularly for tech/ $NDX: x.com/smartreversals…
$NDX - Weekly Chart: ⚠️Once the most bullish of the big indexes, now is the one with the most bearish formation. ℹ️Volume is decreasing after that big warning signaled on the week of July 21, a bearish candle with volume not seen since the covid crash, as I posted then.…