Carl Allen @RealCarlAllen
Sports & Poli Data. OH Small Biz Owner. Frmr MLB/NFL data guy. Bilingüe. Profitable v Props. Created new poll metrics #BlackLivesMatter. Threads: RealCarlAllen realcarlallen.substack.com/p/election-for… Ohio, USA Joined January 2013-
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Excluding DKs doesn't make them go away It incorporates to the poll's observation an assumption they will split proportionally to the decided The veracity of this assumption has nothing to do with accuracy of the poll - but is ultimately used to measure it Hence: unscientific
Excluding DKs doesn't make them go away It incorporates to the poll's observation an assumption they will split proportionally to the decided The veracity of this assumption has nothing to do with accuracy of the poll - but is ultimately used to measure it Hence: unscientific
Sunak is unpopular and I'd be shocked if Labour didn't win, whenever the general election is. BUT A bunch of Reform will end up voting Conservative, fair number of "don't knows" will break Con. Right now, these people are lying saying "Labour by 21" and going to blame the…
Sunak is unpopular and I'd be shocked if Labour didn't win, whenever the general election is. BUT A bunch of Reform will end up voting Conservative, fair number of "don't knows" will break Con. Right now, these people are lying saying "Labour by 21" and going to blame the…
Not sure who cares about UK elections But they're doing it again "It" meaning "lying about their polls" Tell me how you get Labour at 44% out of this? Better yet, tell me how an AVERAGE of polls gets to 44% from this data. You can't, because it's lying.
Riddle: How do you get an AVERAGE in the 40s from a bunch of polls in the low 30s? (Hint: it requires lying)
Riddle: How do you get an AVERAGE in the 40s from a bunch of polls in the low 30s? (Hint: it requires lying) https://t.co/NkQqlPsvl4
Me: tons of data to show undecideds almost never split 50/50. So to characterize the error of "the polls" based on this false assumption is really bad. In cases where they go for the candidate polling lower, this assumption can cause more error than the poll! Statisticians:
Stuff like this is why I'm a "put up or shut up" guy.
Stuff like this is why I'm a "put up or shut up" guy.
He blocked me Was it something I said?
Thanks to @kabir_here for reporting the numbers as they actually are, and not by "spread"
Thanks to @kabir_here for reporting the numbers as they actually are, and not by "spread"
This is true
I graduated Columbia in ‘68 & was heavily involved in that set of campus protests. 1) Outside agitators were a problem then & likely now 2) Antisemitism has no place anywhere, least of all at schools 3) Hamas is a terrorist organization 4) The Israeli govt has got to go
Young people: We want less war, affordable housing and healthcare, jobs better than indentured servitude, and a planet we can live and retire on Nate Silver: Mostly just group allegiance and signaling imo
Young people: We want less war, affordable housing and healthcare, jobs better than indentured servitude, and a planet we can live and retire on Nate Silver: Mostly just group allegiance and signaling imo
@GrittyGetLitty @umichvoter "winning" and "ahead, based only on voters who are currently decided" Are not the same
Me: margin is a junk metric Experts: UGH you're so PEDANTIC we KNOW what margin measures Poll data: 46-45 Experts: this data predic person with 46 will win by 1 🧐 Lmao
Each of these dots represents a poll taken from a known population of 50% Almost none of them returned exactly 50%, and many were far off These are IDEAL polls taken from KNOWN population Consider possibility that nonideal polls from unknown population could fluctuate more
When other people knowingly lie "Illegals only allowed in to vote Dem" It's tempting to show them how and why they're wrong But it's a brilliant tactic to lean into it. "Yep, they sure are, that's why we're doing it. I'm helping them do it and that's why you can't win"
When other people knowingly lie "Illegals only allowed in to vote Dem" It's tempting to show them how and why they're wrong But it's a brilliant tactic to lean into it. "Yep, they sure are, that's why we're doing it. I'm helping them do it and that's why you can't win"
Dear poll aggregators: Taking a poll with a "lean" question that produces "49-47" And another with no lean question that produces "45-45" Does not equal an average of 47-46. Do with that what you will.
There's a disconnect between people who want to be informed by data, and people who want to produce it
There's a disconnect between people who want to be informed by data, and people who want to produce it
Oh lawd Carl's writing again realcarlallen.substack.com/p/how-poll-spr…
Two ways who is "right" is determined in debate: 1) "Who do I trust more?" Appropriate for most subjects, but don't call it scientific 2) "Who has data to support their claim?" is better If you tell me you don't believe me because of something "1" related, it doesn't matter
Joe Walsh @WalshFreedom
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233 Followers 541 Following Opinions my own. Cancer survivor. Stock buybacks are good. ✡︎Donald Trump: “Somebody just told me they've never sat for such a long period of time in a courthouse before. It's ridiculous. I'm supposed to be in Georgia.”
Overheard at Panera Bread, two girls in high school "he's gay...this boy is GAY!" "that's even more gay"
@igorbobic Dang, he really upped the ante with the "eat" comment.
I am going to spend the next 6 months getting yelled at by "leftists" for speaking bold truths like "if you don't like Trump, you should vote for Biden." This apparently makes people mad and causes them to lash out. But someone has to do it.
Guesses on who would make the track?
I need Kendrick Lamar to help me write a diss track about a loooooot of people in politics.
@billjamesonline I’ve been harping on this for decades (probably because I read the idea in one of your Baseball Abstract books in the 80s).
The rule has needed to be fixed for 100 years, but the time has come to get it done. The current situation is just untenable.
If a starting pitcher goes 5 and leaves with a 2-run lead or more, he should remain eligible for the Win regardless of runs allowed by the relievers. It then becomes a judgment call on the part of the official scorer.
I need Kendrick Lamar to help me write a diss track about a loooooot of people in politics.
I’m gonna need Kendrick Lamar to teach me how to write a diss track about Sam Alito.
@trefjon @OpiniumResearch @adamboultonTABB @ObserverUK 15% in the original - but Opinium reallocates DK in a slightly CON-favourable way to get the headline figure: *including* DKs the original figures are LAB 35 CON 18 REF 9
Someone on this bus is playing "Gettin' Jiggy Wit It" on their phone, which is really setting the right mood for an afternoon trip from Waterbury to Hartford.
They also have an an entire catalogue of stuff just as bad right on their campaign website that for some reason has drawn very little media scrutiny donaldjtrump.com/agenda47
You really have to wonder how the supposedly smart and strategic Trump campaign let Trump sit down for an 83-minute interview with Time Magazine, a publication that has little reach and influence in the post-print era
Right now, Shohei Ohtani has the lowest Statcast era K% for anyone with a: 23+% Barrel Rate 22+% Barrel Rate 21+% Barrel Rate 20+% Barrel Rate 19+% Barrel Rate 18+% Barrel Rate (min 100 events)
Tulane is threatening faculty with "disciplinary action...up to an including termination" if they participate in a non-violent protest on a patch of grass in front of campus so I'm gonna hold my breath until all the people so concerned about free speech on campus denounce this.
The math behind the EDLC throw. - We can see at release, the timestamp shows 6.95 seconds. His point on the field is at (x,y) = (-32, 110) - The deflection happens at 7.69, at (60, 64) We start with the pythag travel distance: 103 feet The travel time is 0.74 seconds 1/3
Barrel rate for hitters is quite predictive. Historically, it already only regresses halfway to league average after just 44 balls hit into play. For hard hit %, that's 37 balls hit into play.
Five MLB hitters with big jumps in barrel rate: Are breakout seasons ahead for them? theathletic.com/5445695/2024/0…
Look guys Joe Biden is either a bumbling old man or a criminal mastermind. Pick a damn lane
xwOBA leaders: 1. O'Hearn: .497 2. Ohtani: .492 3. Ozuna: .474 4. Perez: .452 5. Soto: .440 6. Alvarez: .440 7. O'Neill: .437 8. Betts: .432 9. Nimmo: .424 10. Witt Jr.: .423
Cannot emphasize enough that Trump does not have any ideas to reduce inflation. This is just a very poorly designed tax on middle- and working-class people.