Philip Aldrick @PhilAldrick
Senior economics reporter, Bloomberg @economics @bloomberguk London Joined November 2011-
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@PhilAldrick Compared to other CB’s the BoE did more QE as a % of GDP, focused on the most rate sensitive bond mkt in the world, that got hit the worst when rates went up, & uniquely, sold the same bonds at ~70% losses at the mkt lows. And yet these peeps tell the city how to do risk mgmt?
The Bank of England's QE program will cost the UK taxpayer £20bn a year until the early 2030s, the BOE estimates. That's 1/3rd of the defence budget, for context. Of course, it wouldn't be so bad if ex-chancellors had not spent the gains in 2009-2022. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
BOE estimates losses on QE will cost UK taxpayer £85 billion bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @PhilAldrick
Absolute must-read piece about the political doublespeak on defence spending by both major parties by @PJTheEconomist thetimes.co.uk/article/empty-…
Costs to UK taxpayers from planning appeals are piling up, further proof of the painfully slow process of getting a development off the ground. From @_DamianShepherd bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@JoshMartin_econ @stianwestlake @PhilAldrick @DHSCgovuk @DWPgovuk @HMRCgovuk @CompaniesHouse @OBR_UK Is there an opportunity, here, to raise the profile of this issue? Consultation open re gov.uk/government/new…
@JoshMartin_econ @stianwestlake @PhilAldrick @DHSCgovuk @DWPgovuk @HMRCgovuk @CompaniesHouse @OBR_UK Is there an opportunity, here, to raise the profile of this issue? Consultation open re gov.uk/government/new…
Investors are getting worried that a Labour govt would change the Bank of England’s QE arrangements to raise £1.5bn by reducing debt interest payments, UBS analysts say. The money would come from high street bank profits. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Thames Water crisis risks driving up the cost of investment in Britain's water sector, and regulated industries more broadly. Other water companies are being targeted by short-sellers and borrowing costs are rising. With @abhinavvr bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @markets “Thames is not a good advert for investing in private equity infrastructure, and it’s happening just as the government is trying to get UK pension funds to invest more,” said John Ralfe, an independent pensions consultant. by @PhilAldrick
Sunak faces election with second lowest growth in G7, IMF warns But a soft landing and better inheritance for the next govt as inflation falls to 2% in 2025 and growth picks up — UK seen growing 1.5% next year, faster than most in G7 Via @PhilAldrick bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
UK will be a big winner from AI, the IMF says. The UK economic structure means it should get a jump-start over the next decade Story by @tomelleryrees bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The FOMC "dot plot" forecasts of interest rates have always been a bit controversial among the Fed officials. I remember Jim Bullard blasting them and calling for change. Now Ben Bernanke is calling for a new approach at #BOE. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @economics @PhilAldrick
‘Nye’: bad history, bad drama and a flawed hero | TheArticle > terrific piece by @DenisMacShane thearticle.com/nye-bad-histor…
NEW: @BloombergUK Saturday read — Tory MPs are floating the idea of a “unity Cabinet” of moderates + right-wingers, led by Mordaunt, if Sunak can’t survive May 2 — No10 is seriously considering a big shift to the right on migration/ECHR to stop letters bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
BOE’s Mann says markets are pricing too many UK rate cuts this year bloomberg.com/news/articles/…bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @flacqua @PhilAldrick
astonishing legal claim bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Chart: price pressure eases across the UK. Analysis below uses ONS microdata which gives a regional split on prices: the yawning gap between rises and cuts is starting to close. Good news but still leaves big questions about pay. Dataset available via my site (link in bio)
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@CommonFutrs @JoshMartin_econ @PhilAldrick @DHSCgovuk @DWPgovuk @HMRCgovuk @CompaniesHouse @OBR_UK We’re working on this now!
Why don't they just claim that after seasonal adjustments and in order to comply with international accounting standards, it's actually only one day?
“Angry” ONS staff threaten to strike after being “ordered” back to the office for two days a week bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Hand sanitiser out, vinyl back in - let the good times roll
The analogue comeback. Vinyl records back in the ONS inflation basket for the first time in 32 years. Card games have been added, too. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@PhilAldrick @thetimes Honestly, the best thing Hunt could do is announce a review of QE/QT ‘to learn from best practice around the world’ where government bonds aren’t sold by the central bank. Gilts would fly. Interest rates would fall. Then tax cuts all around!
THANK GOD there are still some companies out there doing what they can to make the BoE's life easier by offering very small pay rises. I can't say which
There are good reasons why economies are proving resilient to higher rates, but I don't buy the "rate hikes are really stimulus" argument.. We have studies that focus just on the income effects (to eg bond holders) & they are never powerful. And income effects only part of story
@PhilAldrick The (oft forgotten) secondary objective of the BoE is to ‘support the govt’s wider economic agenda’…. that might cover not losing billions without good reason…
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This great perceptive piece from @PhilAldrick in December showed why the economic indicators — surely Sunak’s chief consideration — pointed to second half 2024
@BloombergUK The economics always made an H2 election seem more likely. All households will feel a lot better off then (barring another energy / supply chain / pandemic-style shock) bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
It's kept in a vault in the Treasury - you have to answer three riddles to get access and no one has ever managed it.
Twice now Keir Starmer has said, “the first lever we will pull is the growth lever.” It will be fascinating to see where in Downing Street he reckons this magic growth lever is, and why no one else has ever tried pulling on it.
Absolutely peak Telegraph content, no notes
Essential reading from @PhilAldrick — UK economy forecast to avoid a recession in 2024 and strengthen in the second half of the year — BUT Q4 2023 and first half of 2024 touch and go — backdrop improves in the summer — case against spring election? bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Both strong arguments in my opinion. I'm fascinated to see where we decide to go on this. And why.
@PhilAldrick @ConCotzias @bpolitics Indeed! I look forward to reading your article on it 😀
𝗢𝗡𝗪𝗔𝗥𝗗'𝗦 𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗧𝗘𝗔𝗠 Today, we're unveiling our 2024 plan to shape the policy debate ahead of the election with new hires and research areas. ⚡️ Thrilled the brilliant @timleunig joins us part-time as Chief Economist - furlough inventor and advisor to two Chancellors
Planning consents ‘at lowest level since 2006’. Well done everyone, great job thetimes.co.uk/article/new-ho…
Excited to say I'll be moving to New York early next year to cover Wall Street banks for Bloomberg! Thanks to everyone I've learned from during my time covering energy. If you know anyone in NYC (or anywhere) who can teach me something about US finance, please DM me.🏦
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