Paul Johnson @PJTheEconomist
Director IFS. Father of four. ifs.org.uk London, England Joined March 2015-
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"There's always a little bit of a game played between bits of the NHS, the Department of Health and the Treasury." Why does the NHS never seem to stick to its budget? @PJTheEconomist discusses on the latest Expert Factor with @anandMenon1 @DrHannahWhite instituteforgovernment.org.uk/podcast/expert…
@TheIFS @PJTheEconomist @DavidGauke @Gilesyb Shame content like this does not get more engagement. well worth a listen my take away thought "what does a weak Treasury look like"
Essential reading on @ifs new Sure Start research from @PJTheEconomist, but do try and look at the full report as well.
Essential reading on @ifs new Sure Start research from @PJTheEconomist, but do try and look at the full report as well.
A new report from @NAOorguk estimates that 85,000 new childcare places will be needed by September 2025 to deliver the government's new early education entitlements. CEPEO's @claire_l_crawf asks how prepared we are in our latest blog post 👨👧👇 blogs.ucl.ac.uk/cepeo/2024/04/…
🤓THE EXPERTS ARE HERE... 🎙️ Is there a better way to pay for the NHS? 👉On this week’s Expert Factor @DrHannahWhite, @anandMenon1 and @PJTheEconomist look at the future of the health service.
I’ve been listening back to some of our Expert Factor podcasts. Forgive the narcissism and self promotion, but they are genuinely really good. Especially the ones where @DrHannahWhite and @anandMenon1 are the experts and I’m quizzing them. Do try this one and others.
I’ve been listening back to some of our Expert Factor podcasts. Forgive the narcissism and self promotion, but they are genuinely really good. Especially the ones where @DrHannahWhite and @anandMenon1 are the experts and I’m quizzing them. Do try this one and others.
This is an excellent podcast. 40 minutes of @PJTheEconomist @DavidGauke and me explaining to you lot that things need to be paid for- what more could you want?
This is an excellent podcast. 40 minutes of @PJTheEconomist @DavidGauke and me explaining to you lot that things need to be paid for- what more could you want?
Weird way of defining investment. As Ben says not all spending defined as investment is necessarily good for growth. E.g. A good chunk of it is on defence: tanks, warships etc. May be necessary, but less related to growth than eg teacher pay which doesn’t count as investment.
Weird way of defining investment. As Ben says not all spending defined as investment is necessarily good for growth. E.g. A good chunk of it is on defence: tanks, warships etc. May be necessary, but less related to growth than eg teacher pay which doesn’t count as investment.
NEW PODCAST: The £600 billion problem awaiting the next government @PJTheEconomist is joined by @DavidGauke and @Gilesyb to discuss the upcoming Spending Review, a crucial moment for the next government. 🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/ps600…
Fascinating. The differences in gender balance by medical specialisation are huge.
Fascinating. The differences in gender balance by medical specialisation are huge.
🗳️ In an election year it can be hard to work out what parties’ policies mean and how they fit into the bigger picture. We've built a new interactive tool that lets you take the reins of the Treasury and Be the Chancellor. @nesta_uk ifs.org.uk/bethechancellor
Ben is 100% right. Numbers used in describing increase in defence spending are impenetrable, misleading & internally inconsistent. Committing to 2.5% of GDP on defence is big and important. There is no need for this profusion of overblown and inconsistent numerical claims.
Ben is 100% right. Numbers used in describing increase in defence spending are impenetrable, misleading & internally inconsistent. Committing to 2.5% of GDP on defence is big and important. There is no need for this profusion of overblown and inconsistent numerical claims.
I trust my @TheIFS comms team colleagues enough to go along with it when they tell me to make a video for TikTok... thankfully, dodged having to come up with a dance to go with it. But if you're interested in our takeaways on takeaways, look no further! ifs.org.uk/publications/l…
I trust my @TheIFS comms team colleagues enough to go along with it when they tell me to make a video for TikTok... thankfully, dodged having to come up with a dance to go with it. But if you're interested in our takeaways on takeaways, look no further! ifs.org.uk/publications/l…
The long term fall in defence spending as a fraction of national income is what has allowed us to expand our welfare state. Reversing that fall is going to be painful, especially as pressures on health and pensions increase.
The long term fall in defence spending as a fraction of national income is what has allowed us to expand our welfare state. Reversing that fall is going to be painful, especially as pressures on health and pensions increase.
Here is the key point about today's announcement on defence spending. The overall spending "envelope" was set in the Budget, and hasn't been adjusted. With no more spending overall (and no tax rises) that can mean only one thing: bigger spending cuts elsewhere.
Here is the key point about today's announcement on defence spending. The overall spending "envelope" was set in the Budget, and hasn't been adjusted. With no more spending overall (and no tax rises) that can mean only one thing: bigger spending cuts elsewhere.
"A 20-year-old today is about as likely to claim a health-related benefit as a 39-year-old was in 2019. A 35-year-old today is about as likely to claim as a 46-year-old in 2019." 👆 I found this a helpful way to frame the scale of the recent surge in disability benefit claims.
"A 20-year-old today is about as likely to claim a health-related benefit as a 39-year-old was in 2019. A 35-year-old today is about as likely to claim as a 46-year-old in 2019." 👆 I found this a helpful way to frame the scale of the recent surge in disability benefit claims.
Onshore wind joins video games, the financial sector and higher education on the list of things that a) England is good at and b) England’s politicians hate x.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
Onshore wind joins video games, the financial sector and higher education on the list of things that a) England is good at and b) England’s politicians hate x.com/jburnmurdoch/s…
What is behind the UK’s asylum policy? As Rishi Sunak doubles down on his Rwanda flights plan, don’t miss the latest Expert Factor podcast to make sense of why - and what a better policy could look like With @anandMenon1 @PJTheEconomist & @DrHannahWhite podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the…
What is behind the UK’s asylum policy? As Rishi Sunak doubles down on his Rwanda flights plan, don’t miss the latest Expert Factor podcast to make sense of why - and what a better policy could look like With @anandMenon1 @PJTheEconomist & @DrHannahWhite podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the…
Sam Freedman @Samfr
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My statement regarding the verdict on our ban of prayer rituals at Michaela.
Here's a snap from a fortnight ago from a walk on #Hampstead Heath. I expect it's greener now, but there's still a sense of spring - and thanks for wearing some red. . . . . . . #photography #london #landscapephotography #naturephotography
Fascinating chart. This is what a housing shortage does: when renters' earnings rise, nearly half of the increase gets eaten by higher rents. If everything we consume was like this, growth wouldn't make us better off at all. There's no reason housing needs to be this way either.
NEW: London's suburbs can accommodate 900,000 new homes This groundbreaking report from @russellcurtis confirms what many of us already knew: We can - and should - be building more in London.
The whole network has to grow enormously - to around 430 per 100,000 by 2030 to hit the government's targets. But it has to be even growth across the country if there is to be public buy-in to this shift. 17/18
But another important consideration is indeed the charging network in the UK (and globally). As the independent @theCCCuk has warned, the network is currently much more developed in London than other parts of Britain. 16/18
Until 50 years ago, CO₂ emissions developed in lockstep with economic growth in France. Since the early 1970s, the opposite has been true: emissions declined as people in France got richer.
Check out this stunning snapshot of our beloved Muswell Hill captured by our very own local resident, Janie Mack. Wishing all our friends and neighbors a fantastic Easter weekend ahead! #muswellhill #n10 #lovewhereyoulive
From the top deck of my 134 #London bus this evening as it slowed through Muswell Hill
NEW: Lots of countries have housing challenges so how exceptional is the UK's housing crisis? Very. We pay higher prices to live in smaller, older and poorer-quality homes resolutionfoundation.org/publications/h…
I for one am glad we've given the world a snappy short hand for fiscal meltdown
The US potentially faces a "Liz Truss" moment if the government doesn't take the deficit seriously: Congressional Budget Office's director ft.com/content/c43cf8…
Brexit has mullered UK goods trade: - both imports and exports hit - down not just with the EU but also rest of the world But bigger/wider effects than I'd have expected.
Eric Heffer shouted ‘Stalinist!’ at Healey and claimed that he had learned nothing since they had been in the Communist Party Russell Kerr shouted ‘Bastard! Bastard!’ at Healey and MPs flashed the V sign at him. Healey responded ‘Go and fuck yourselves you fuckers!’
Britain isn't remotely keeping up with the Joneses (France/Germany) house building wise. Great chart of the week is courtesy of @geographyjim resolutionfoundation.org/comment/time-t…
The 6 deadly sins of fiscal policy-making (and what to do about them): 1. Fiscal fiction: gvts meet fiscal rules by penciling in unrealistic policies 2. Gaming: meeting the letter but not the spirit of fiscal rules e.g. selling off assets... 1/8 instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/st…
Some really striking stuff in the updated birth figures: - Fertility rate at its lowest since 1940 - More births now outside vs inside marriage - Average age of mothers highest it's ever been (30.9) - Ditto % of children born to non-UK-born mothers (30.3%) (1/2)
When people cite growth of UK economy since 2010 or Brexit or since Covid to claim better performance than European peers… ask them if it’s per capita. Relatively strong population growth flatters figures. Productivity growth has been notably sub-par.
what really matters isn’t GDP, it’s GDP per capita – how much we produce per person is what underpins our living standards. It hasn't grown since the start of 2022 ⤵️ resolutionfoundation.org/comment/recess…
"...and of course this is all incorrect if a left-hander comes in"
Somebody just tried to explain cricket to me and they pulled this insane graphic up. There's no way this is real. Be serious.
Can highly recommend this 'Dirty, Filthy Book'. It paints a vivid picture of priggish Victorian Britain, through Annie Besant's heroic fight against Church and Crown for free speech, women’s emancipation and reproductive freedom. #secularism @NatSecSoc @PenguinUKBooks
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