Pascal 🇪🇺🇬🇧 @PascalLTH
Blogger; Political analyst; EU 🇪🇺 UK 🇬🇧 France 🇫🇷 climate 🌍 On substack: https://t.co/6z1qyanRh8 Europe Joined December 2012-
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20 years ago Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia & Slovenia joined the EU. Since then, the pace of change across the Union has been amazing. Opportunities have grown tremendously. Have a look at #20YearsTogether commission.europa.eu/20-years-toget…
Can only double down on this thread given continued direction of the polling
Can only double down on this thread given continued direction of the polling https://t.co/LoSM2HBf3K
Non-zero chance that elections are announced in both Spain and the UK on Monday
Non-zero chance that elections are announced in both Spain and the UK on Monday
4b/ And if Britain had to adopt the euro as a condition of re-joining the EU, how would people vote if there was a referendum tomorrow? ❎ Stay Out: 38% (-4) ☑️ Re-Join: 38% (NC) 😐 Wouldn’t vote: 10% (+2) 🤷♂️ Don’t know: 13% (+1)
4a/ Steady as she goes in our Brexit trackers. * All * ☑️ Re-join: 48% (NC) ❎ Stay Out: 31% (-2) 🤷 DK or not voting: 21% (+2) * Exc DKs / won’t vote * ☑️ Re-join: 61% (+1) ❎ Stay Out: 39% (-1)
Still no movement on banning actual imports to the EU of Russian LNG but looks like transshipment through EU ports might be banned
Still no movement on banning actual imports to the EU of Russian LNG but looks like transshipment through EU ports might be banned
People in Ukraine are dying to Russian missiles because the Greek government wants these air defence systems to stand idle doing nothing
People in Ukraine are dying to Russian missiles because the Greek government wants these air defence systems to stand idle doing nothing
Major General Harri Ohra-Aho on Russia's decision to move ballistic missiles closer to the Finnish border "Of course, it's none of my business, but operationally it seems absurd to bring missile systems with such a long range closer to our border, they make easy targets for us"
As I wrote in 2019
On the missile defence - European Sky Shield is already a project being developed by various European countries But France doesn't like it because it uses non-European tech. Paris wants to privilege the Franco-Italian SAMP-T system
On the missile defence - European Sky Shield is already a project being developed by various European countries But France doesn't like it because it uses non-European tech. Paris wants to privilege the Franco-Italian SAMP-T system
Britain’s railways are broken. Cancellations have soared to record levels, fares have risen almost twice as fast as wages, and taxpayers are paying through the teeth to prop up a failing system. Labour will deliver a publicly owned railway that puts the passenger first.
The benefits and costs probably don't justify the UK having its own system like this More logical to just keep investing in European Sky Shield - get as much of the benefit as we'll need and share the costs
Chris Grey 🇺🇦 @chrisgreybrexit
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As I wrote in 2019
I'm old enough to remember when senior Times journalists quivered with righteous contempt towards academics and analysts specialised in European politics who suggested that structural forces would draw the UK back into the EU system
“It’s hard not to wonder, as you work through this meticulously constructed narrative, whether one day we’ll be reading an equally epic account of the tortuous negotiations to get us back into the EU.”
@PascalLTH He conveniently forgets the financial, economic, political and social benefits that we received as members of the EU.
The pro-Russian caucus inside the GOP was defeated on Saturday, and with it Putin's dream of quickly occupying Ukraine. Now the US and Europe need to seize the moment to win, and end, the war theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Russia relentless campaign to purge Ukraine of evangelical Christians played a big role in changing Speaker Johnson’s views on support for Ukraine aid
.@SpeakerJohnson repeatedly met w/ Christians from Ukraine and was moved. Russia intentionally persecutes evangelicals in occupied Ukraine. Here he met with leaders of evangelical denominations and executive secretary of the conservative movement of Ukraine Pavlo Unguryan
@PascalLTH Could be an interesting research question. Stuff like this is why we put the full data up to be downloaded and analysed. Part of me wants to include an option where you can analyse votes by government terms, but I don't know yet whether the effort would be worth it.
@PascalLTH Indeed - the outvotes are as much an expression how often member states let themselves be outvoted than how often they are in an actual minority. Germany or Belgium for instance have very high rates of abstentions, usually due to coalition disagreements. (aka the 'German vote')
@PascalLTH @AntonSpisak @JoyRupert Plus 'agreed to inviting' obviously not the same as 'may invite'
Lib Dems are gonna turtle along at 9%, have nothing written about them, and win 40 seats
One reason the Conservatives might do worse than uniform swing implies: tactical voting. In BES data, I found that the number of voters considering more than one progressive party is at its highest in recent history economist.com/britain/2024/0…
Quite. @TiceRichard is wrong on this. Australia had agreements with Indonesia. The UK has no such agreement with France (and France has no reason to agree: would Tice agree if he were a French politician?)
While Tice can make these false claims on BBC Question Time, the BBC should not disseminate his factually inaccurate claim on its tweet as if it is true. The UK is not legally entitled to return a boat to France, through French waters, without French consent.
@PascalLTH @jdportes “free movement deal” is also problematic language, IMHO, because UK citizens won’t enjoy FoM during the four years, but will be tied to a specific member state
@PascalLTH Yes. Unclear to me whether it was an intern on duty at No. 10 or whether the BBC garbled it..
This is an extraordinary figure, and needs to be top of your mind when economic growth in the US is discussed. (From ft.com/content/0d0980…)
First thoughts re. Lammy's @ForeignAffairs piece: 1. It's good to see Labour's priorities fleshed out. As expected, big focus on climate, multilateralism, regional cooperation. Sets expectations with the base that interests as important as values. (1/3) foreignaffairs.com/united-kingdom…
That's a good start: Mario Draghi, who will publish a much awaited "competitiveness report", says that the €zone crisis "competitiveness strategy" (austerity and downward wage pressure) was bad as it reduced domestic demand, deepened the crisis and undermined the social model.
V good this. US policy is failing through excess fear.
A Russian campaign of destruction against Ukraine's energy infrastructure. A mass Iranian missile strike against Israel. Washington's anti-escalation strategy has failed My latest this week: pascallth.substack.com/p/washingtons-…
For what it’s worth, interesting to hear this kind of thing coming out of Beijing
Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun: 🔹 The first is the level of resistance and national…
Ah yes, the most successful political hit in history: beergate. The Tories lost almost 500 seats at the 2022 local elections.
Looking at the challenges Ukraine faces as a strategic precedent, it is worth noting that it is much more difficult for an enemy to use missile and drone strikes to destroy distributed wind and solar power systems than concentrated TPP or nuclear infrastructure