Mosaic Asset @MosaicAssetCo
Sharing how macro and technicals drive the stock market. Long + short trade ideas. mosaicassetco.com Not investment advice Joined May 2021-
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Nice bounce from oversold breadth conditions that I wrote about last week. S&P 500 putting in its best week of the year as the percent of stocks across the market trading above their 20-day MA got extremely oversold. Doesn’t mean the pullback is over yet though. If the S&P does…
LFMD daily chart. New addition to this week's chart report. After breaking out from a larger base over the $9 level back in March, the stock is back testing that level and consolidating for another run. The RS line is already near a new 52-week high while the MACD resets at…
Following recent hotter than expected inflation reports, a reminder that commodity-linked sectors perform well during periods of high and rising inflation. The chart below shows the performance of various equity sectors over the past 50 years during inflationary environments.…
The 1Q GDP report was worse than expected at 1.6% annualized growth. But core PCE inflation was higher than expected at 3.7%. Rate markets clearly care more about the latter today. The 10-year yield is now at 4.7%, which is almost 90 bps higher than the start of the year.…
Trying something new today! I made a video update this week called Mosaic Vision. It’s a 7-minute video that looks at key charts from my weekend report and trade ideas:
For the bull market to continue, an earnings recovery needs to offset the headwinds to valuations especially if inflation levels stay high. The good news is that the earnings contribution to the rally is growing stronger. The chart below looks at the year-over-year return in the…
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Pullbacks are normal...even in strong bull market phases.
Pullbacks are normal...even in strong bull market phases.
The level of stock prices ultimately comes down to earnings, and what investors are willing to pay for those earnings through measures like the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Since the bull market started in October 2022, multiple expansion has been the primary driver of returns…
When indexes start recovering after a pullback, I look for relative strength. Like what you're seeing with ANDE today. While the S&P is finally higher after six days of red, this stock is breaking out to new all-time highs after consolidating since the end of December. $ANDE…
Sentiment indicators are becoming more constructive for a rally, with the pullback wiping out excessive bullish sentiment. If anything, fear is becoming the prevailing emotion in the stock market. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is firmly into “fear” territory with the lowest reading…
While oversold breadth conditions can precede a rally, the really powerful signals come from positive divergences. That’s when breadth metrics show that the average stock is holding up better than the indexes, and you saw that with Friday’s price action. Despite the S&P dropping…
Positive breadth divergence...
Positive breadth divergence...
My son's laughing his ass off while we watch Happy Gilmore together. New father/son tradition😂
New post is out! The S&P 500 delivers its worst week in over a year. 3 catalysts pressuring stocks: - Stronger dollar - Uncertain Fed outlook - Rising rates across the yield curve But conditions emerging that can help stocks find a bottom. And why earnings growth is key for…
So much time and energy spent on fintwit trying to make big directional calls; prove others wrong and look prophetic. It’s all noise. Risk management; asymmetric setups in a conducive environment; discipline. Trading is not predicting. Reaction > Prediction
😂 yes please.
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What actor can play a hero and villain equally brilliantly?
remember, a weak $JPYUSD is always bad for stocks…just like 2013
Restaurant Strength $CAVA $CMG $DPZ $SG $SHAK $TXRH $WING $YUM
The six stocks i'm watching in the restaurant/fast food theme $TXRH $CMG $SHAK $WING $CAVA $SG
Get your wife a prime rib and bottle of French wine for dinner tonight (you don't have to drink the wine sober brethren it's for her). This is relationship advice
$TDOC is the grand-daddy of round trippers... from $13 in April 2016 to $308 in February 2021 to $13 in April 2024
Pleasure grabbing some food and drinks with @Citrini7 and @concodanomics HAGW, everyone.
As long as earnings are growing, markets can grind higher in spite of Fed Funds rate probabilities pricing only 1 rate cut this year. Strong labor market backdrop allows for this. Market will be keying in on April and May CPI. Tomorrow's PCE is irrelevant because its stale data.…
For markets to bottom, you really need more selling and capitulation to me. But markets likely will be earnings (with focus on Mag 7 earnings) and inflation data dependent. Ceteris peribus, would like to see $VIX at 1 Standard Deviation which is around 28. Looking back in time…
Santos framed it up well this morning. "High for longer" is not bad. High rates isn't necessarily bad for equities. Just go back and look at 2003-2006. How many model stocks did we see out of that big bull? Literally hundreds. Yields were rising in that timeframe. That is why…
This is a notable miss. Expectations were for Q1 core PCE at 3.4%. After the March CPI and PPI, Wall Street forecasters were expecting core PCE rose around 0.27% in March, which would have implied a 2.7% 12-month increase.
The core PCE price index rose at an annual rate of 3.7% during the first quarter, and was up 2.9% from the year-earlier quarter
$SMH Semi group strong here so could save the market for today as also seeing TICK readings make higher lows slowly.. but really this is not what you wanna see if bullish.. need to flush all the longs out and they keep dip buying so will get uglier in coming weeks likely
Build a business where you can: - Own your story - Put your family first - Volunteer on Tuesdays - Live anywhere you want - Forget what day & time it is - Go out to lunch with your spouse - Take your kids to school every day Forget 'scale' and 'winning'. Go live your life!
$GDX - Gold miners A leading group, setting up in that tight wedge at the 21dma, and just above the base level. That retest might setup a continuation breakout with a rotation out of tech rally and back into Metals & more defensive sectors.
Why I encourage you to write and publish Someone messaged me, saying how they’d like to write and publish, but don’t feel ‘ready’ or ‘good enough’ for it. I can’t tell you what to do, obviously. But maybe sharing my own experiences will help. I didn’t ‘feel ready’ to publish…
A PERSONAL ANNOUNCEMENT Finally after all these years, the time has come. Launching in *two days*... Full info here: macrocharts.com
Bad news is good news for stocks until bad news becomes bad news for stocks.
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