David Shor @davidshor
Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami. I try to elect Democrats. Views are my own. he/him🌹 blueroseresearch.org New York, NY Joined November 2007-
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@ContractJames @xwanyex I think the broad bipartisan consensus that existed before Citizens United was a reasonable compromise and it is a shame that conservative lawyers decided to throw it all away and take it out of the hands of elected officials
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@Sebastian_Hols @xwanyex Donors are really weird!
Cost of living is the #1 issue for every subgroup of voters imaginable - young people, people of color, women - *except* for the ~ 1% of the population that has donated to a Democratic campaign in the last year
@Sebastian_Hols @xwanyex My point is that only 1% of rich people donate and that 1% is very non-random in ways that I don’t think furthers the goals of either liberals and conservatives
@xwanyex Due to technology and changes in law we’ve seen a massive reallocation of power towards hyper-politically engaged hobbyists and nobody seems happy with the results
@RichardHanania The post 1990 era was one of uncapping - uncapped donations and uncapped media consumption - effectively granting vast political power to the people most susceptible to fundraising emails and news feed algorithms
@xwanyex Conservatives haven’t thought this fully through - “billionaires run everything” is not my preferred system of government but has more going for it than “the 1% of billionaires who are brain-poisoned enough by hyper-partisan media run our political system in their free time”
@emre_mayo These people really exist and it’s just that they don’t travel in Jewish circles
@emre_mayo There really are lots of right-wingers who dislike Jews x.com/davidshor/stat…
Explicit antisemitic attitudes are now much more common among young voters - 18 year old registered voters are now ~5x more likely to say that they have an unfavorable view of the Jewish people than 65 year olds.
America's Jewish neighborhoods - both Hasidic and non-Hasidic - are trending fast toward Republicans while similar non-Jewish precincts matched on demographics like education and income have trended toward the Democrats
@tamritzblog @HeTows Number of votes are ~the same but NJ draws precincts differently than NY
@Duderichy I think an underrated angle is just that all of these tech-brained communities are trying to scale the intimacy of small high trust communities and that is intrinsically difficult/impossible - other people don’t even try
@HeTows Generally litvak precincts vote less bloc-like while Hasidic ones are more bloc-like but it cancels out on net
@HeTows I had grouped all Haredi Jews together for simplicity but here's a within-Orthodox breakdown
@samth Obviously the answer here is pretty sensitive to how you want to define being Jewish but roughly speaking 15%
@RecoverRepub More detail here x.com/davidshor/stat…
@RecoverRepub The whole point here is that I broke out Haredi vs non-Haredi precincts
@emre_mayo Young voters in fact are not more likely to be Democrats x.com/davidshor/stat…
A major shift we saw this cycle is that young people have gone from being one of the most progressive generations to one of the most conservative. Republicans won 18 year old white men, white women, and men of color, and doubled their support with men under 25.
@besttrousers @MosesSternstein @crampell Like the claim here is basically that the post-pandemic real wage go up + inflation going up was progressive and the counter-claim is it doesn't take into account that debt/transfers share of spend is highly correlated with income
@besttrousers @MosesSternstein @crampell The idea here is that if you have a group that spends more than it earns then "goods get more expensive"+"real wages go up" can lead to a decline in actual living standards
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