Chris at PTS @ChrisatPTS
used to be political data stuff, now mostly simpsons gifs Buffalo Joined December 2012-
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the right chart might be realistic in a low turnout election, but in a pres elect there are so many high propensity voters that the dem adv at the high end is washed out. checked my model in Onondaga County NY and 40% had turnout scores >95% and 1.5pp more rep than all voters
the right chart might be realistic in a low turnout election, but in a pres elect there are so many high propensity voters that the dem adv at the high end is washed out. checked my model in Onondaga County NY and 40% had turnout scores >95% and 1.5pp more rep than all voters
...dream blunt rotation?
a lot of people paid to comment on politics mental framework is that everything matters and it matters a lot, when really not a lot matters and it only matters a little and also its hard to identify those things that do matter
a lot of people paid to comment on politics mental framework is that everything matters and it matters a lot, when really not a lot matters and it only matters a little and also its hard to identify those things that do matter
and i thought the gap between election day vs abs+EV was big
and i thought the gap between election day vs abs+EV was big
if twitter was around from like 98-04 10% of the tweets would have been about the previous night's episode of conan. there was some much incredibly funny and weird stuff
if twitter was around from like 98-04 10% of the tweets would have been about the previous night's episode of conan. there was some much incredibly funny and weird stuff
a counter argument, not that i subscribe to it, is that it could actually hurt biden by bifurcating abortion and the presidential vote. its less important to vote for biden if abortion is your top issue because you can vote directly for it.
alright time to go sit outside and stare at some clouds with dark glasses on
im too lazy to look up the age breaks for generations right now
im too lazy to look up the age breaks for generations right now https://t.co/zfy1WHrS1W
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@paullarocco If you're going to take somebody's hard work, at least have the decency to credit him. x.com/chrisatpts/sta…
#NY03 EV update - nassau only update, through today Rep/Cons have fallen behind their 2022 EV numbers estimated Dem margin in EV+abs 300-7700
@ChrisatPTS @casey__bella @DemsNy3 @NassauDems @SuffolkDems Thank you so much, Chris!
@ChrisatPTS @madrid_mike I encouraged people to vote early, but many wanna vote on Election Day. 🤷♀️
@ChrisatPTS Thanks for your work with this.
@ChrisatPTS You are correct. Nassau why are you like this
After 10+ years, today is my last day full-time @Catalist_US. I am grateful to have learned & accomplished so much over my tenure -- all in the service of leaving the world in a little bit better place. I will miss most the camaraderie of my talented colleagues (esp @yghitza).
@ChrisatPTS Got it. Certainly something to look in to.
@ChrisatPTS I’m refreshing Spotify Sunday night just waiting for all my reaction Bills podcasts to get uploaded.
@ChrisatPTS I definitely think there are some issues that all Dems should probably talk more like Tester or Peltola than Warren but abortion is not the example for that.
@ChrisatPTS Also completely discounts how important issue salience is and how difficult it is to get your favorable issues salient if you’re boring.
@ChrisatPTS Highest o/u on interceptions of the season
@robertmays What can they say? The AFC East owners are all... (Puts glasses on) Connor-sseurs.
The genius of this is how small the audience for it is.
wow orcas really hate mitt romney, first they torpedoed his gotv program in 2012, now they are sinking yachts
Suckin on chili dogs Outside the tastey freeze
@ChrisatPTS It helps that some historically conservative neighborhoods, like Bensonhurst, have attracted a lot of Asians recently. Some of the most reliable voters are probably still white old-timers.
@ChrisatPTS Yeah, my wager would be that + maybe relatively weak pre-existing views on partisan handling of the issue
@ChrisatPTS @PoliticalKiwi @iabvek @spinons @BirdAppKJ @xenocryptsite @davidshor @lxeagle17 @baseballot @Jamie_from_PI also apparently rewarded by the Elon “for me” algorithm
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