CIPS Analog Guidance @CIPSAnalogs
The CIPS Analog Guidance is an impact-based weather resource that objectively finds similar historical events to the upcoming numerical model forecast. eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/an… St. Louis, MO Joined August 2013-
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A quick note about the @CIPSAnalogs stuff for next week: Nearly every event in the Top 15 features some sort of storm reports. The scores are interesting. Most are about an 11/15 (C grade) so not "Great" but also not "bad" either.
The western part of the U.S. is bound to be well below average temperature by Jan 25. Analog weather involves examining today's forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar. @natwxdesk @CIPSAnalogs @KHQA
New analogs tonight show the changing weather pattern deep in January headed to early February. We quickly go from blowtorch to near-normal temperatures in the eastern CONUS as the pattern flips to a colder one. This shows the temp anomalies. #natgas $UNG $BOIL @CIPSAnalogs
The GEFS and analogs based on its extended-range forecast are incredibly wet in the eastern US next week. Here are the forecasts Monday-Wednesday next week. That is a rather extreme 72-hour mean precipitation.
Calling all undergraduate students from/studying in St. Louis! Listen up: We proudly present the Ron Przybylinski Memorial Scholarship, open to students studying meteorology or a related subject. Apply today, application closes June 30 forms.gle/URZvx4B8UhHRb5…
Nothing’s safe ‘til May…😉
https://t.co/pU5trYRzik
Cam brings up a good point! But also points to a place where CIPS can be a bit misleading.... Let's take a fun trip! 1/?
Cam brings up a good point! But also points to a place where CIPS can be a bit misleading.... Let's take a fun trip! 1/?
Hey severe weather lovers... have you seen the @CIPSAnalogs Deterministic Model Guidance viewer?!? Much easier to view than the older thumbnail stamps! Many composite indices to view from the NAM & GFS. SHERB has higher indices over NWA early Fri PM eas.slu.edu/CIPS/MODEL/WXm…
@CIPSAnalogs suggesting the pattern could support some strong/severe storms Saturday across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. Too early to nail down specifics, but something we’ll be monitoring over the next few days. #valleywx
While I wouldn’t bank on it, @CIPSAnalogs have a 50-60% chance of temps at or above 60° in southern WI early next week 👀
We’ve been around a lot longer than 8 years, but thank you to all our followers and users! #MyTwitterAnniversary
Mightily impressive +4 to +6 standard deviations above normal 850mb temperatures across Pac NW & West Canada per @CIPSAnalogs. A +4 to +6 SD equates to 0.007% to 0.0000002% of all obs in a normal distribution. But upcoming balloon sounding obs will likely be all-time highs.
Quite the confidence in the upcoming pattern change. Not only in the number of GEFS members on board, but also the intensity per @CIPSAnalogs. Solid shot of >80 from Thur into next weekend AND (thanks @TimHalbach for tempting the gods) chances for severe. #wiwx @SwiwX
Listen to this sage advice, folks. Risk of temps <32 a week from now is 50-60% according to analogs based off of the GEFS. Freezes in early May are NOT uncommon! @CIPSAnalogs
Listen to this sage advice, folks. Risk of temps <32 a week from now is 50-60% according to analogs based off of the GEFS. Freezes in early May are NOT uncommon! @CIPSAnalogs https://t.co/zzyVhciJ3X
Growing support from @CIPSAnalogs that we'll have severe storms Monday night. The coverage of storms is uncertain, but any storm could initially produce very large hail before things transition to a wind threat. Can't rule out a tornado either. Have a way to get warnings! #arwx
A number of high end severe days on latest @CIPSAnalogs for Wed off of this morning's NAM model. 15 Apr 2011 the top match, Yazoo City in '10, and the Zero, MS tornado in March '92 also in top 5. Gives further context to the potential of the fcst environment.
If you are interested here are a few of the sites used for gathering some of this information. @CIPSAnalogs @NWSSPC @NWSWPC @NWSLMRFC Also make sure to follow our neighbors as they will be updating frequently as well. @NWSMobile @NWSJacksonMS @NWSLakeCharles @NWSShreveport
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Not a bad day at the office
We had a great time visiting Queeny Park with @StlCountyParks as they conducted a prescribed fire to ensure the landscape is healthy & future large fires do not occur. Thanks to @DrSamPage for stopping by so we can explain our role in making sure these fires occur safely! #firewx
You would think the @Cardinals would have helped their fans out. Instead it’s mass chaos leaving the game today.
@mulattoprince44 @Cardinals Well…I actually quite like that idea.
There are several new tools that enhance snow squall operations: 1. @CIPSAnalogs SNSQ Parameter NAM & GFS forecasts 2. @NWSWPC Key Messages on SNSQ days 3. Problem spots on I-80 outlined in AWIPS to maintain situational awareness 4. KDP/reflectivity color tables tuned to SNSQs
Inception moment.... I've been writing my blog for so long that I have write-ups and breakdowns featuring CIPS Analogs for events that show up as analogs to the upcoming event on @CIPSAnalogs
A quick note about the @CIPSAnalogs stuff for next week: Nearly every event in the Top 15 features some sort of storm reports. The scores are interesting. Most are about an 11/15 (C grade) so not "Great" but also not "bad" either.
New analogs tonight show the changing weather pattern deep in January headed to early February. We quickly go from blowtorch to near-normal temperatures in the eastern CONUS as the pattern flips to a colder one. This shows the temp anomalies. #natgas $UNG $BOIL @CIPSAnalogs
@BrutusX4K these are graphics from the @CIPSAnalogs folks. Cool bit of guidance that uses past events to offer insight on future events
The GEFS and analogs based on its extended-range forecast are incredibly wet in the eastern US next week. Here are the forecasts Monday-Wednesday next week. That is a rather extreme 72-hour mean precipitation.
@CIPSAnalogs Any known issues with your model page scripts? Noticed a lot of your key plots haven't updated in the last day. Thanks!
Calling all undergraduate students from/studying in St. Louis! Listen up: We proudly present the Ron Przybylinski Memorial Scholarship, open to students studying meteorology or a related subject. Apply today, application closes June 30 forms.gle/URZvx4B8UhHRb5…
Thinking of planting 🌷 soon or have vulnerable vegetation? Latest extended @CIPSAnalogs suggests a high likelihood of a freeze ~next weekend. #stlwx #mowx #ilwx #midmowx
@NickLilja @CIPSAnalogs Hey @DrWxologist, fix this.
Analog guidance from @CIPSAnalogs shows another uptick in severe weather probabily in the day 6-8 period. The greats probs are across many of the same areas that were just impacted. #USwx #Severewx
@CIPSAnalogs Have you guys ever considered adding a Day 6-10 and Day 11-15 windows to your extended analogs? It may cast a wider net limiting specificity, but it may have value to some of your users!
@andrewtornado11 Pushing some work I did with the @CIPSAnalogs folks. nwafiles.nwas.org/jom/articles/2…
Analog guidance suggestive of ~4" #snow with the next system for #Denver late Monday into Tuesday. To me, this feels like a 2-4" event for many, though I think it unwise to rule out up to ~6" for some. #COwx #weather [Image at left via @CIPSAnalogs; at right: latest NDFD fcst.]
@OUFan919 This just makes me depressed AF @CIPSAnalogs @ChuckGraves18
@CIPSAnalogs The @CIPSAnalogs score for Jan 21, 2016 just went up 1.5. IT is now 11.3/15 Or about 75% That's a passing grade. Worth watching even more closely-er.
The top @CIPSAnalogs for this weekend was a pretty potent day in Jan of 2016... But the score is, like, a 9.5. So I'm not too concerned. At this point.
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