Valentina Romei @valentinaromei
Economics reporter at the Financial Times. [email protected]; @[email protected] ft.com/valentina-romei London Joined July 2012-
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UK trade intensity (exports plus imports divided by GDP) has not recovered in line with other G7 countries since the pandemic. We continue to expect that Brexit will reduce the UK’s potential GDP by 4% in the long run by lowering the trade intensity of the economy. #Budget2024
“an additional £3.4 billion of capital funding for the NHS in England, to fund investments in technology and productivity-enhancing service improvements. But all of this investment spending is to come after the election, .. ifs.org.uk/articles/sprin…
#Italy lags behind for #women in science and technology #womeninSTEM ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/we…
Nothing strange here #Brexit: UK and EU science chiefs urge British researchers and businesses work together with European colleagues through Horizon, and apply for grants to boost jobs, growth and scientific breakthroughs gov.uk/government/new…
UK: Women were more likely to be killed by someone they knew than men, for example, of the 100 domestic homicide victims in the year ending March 2023, 70 were women. #ONS ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
This does not look good for the #Tories ahead of the UK #GeneralElection2024
UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in Quarter 3 2023, revised down from a first estimate of no growth. UK GDP is now estimated to have shown no growth in Quarter 2 2023, revised down from a previously estimated increase of 0.2%,
Britain won’t rejoin the EU for decades — if ever ft.com/content/9c2df3… via @FT
Sorry America, China has a bigger economy than you ft.com/content/c406ef… via @FT
England and Wales: Around one in nine people identified as #Homeless have a higher education qualification. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
#OECDPISA Not a pretty picture for Italy-
#OECD PISA Average UK 2022 results were down compared to 2018 in mathematics and reading, and about the same as in 2018 in science.
More EU nationals leave the UK than those arriving ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
OBR: "the super-deduction brought forward some qualifying investments, although it does not seem to have significantly boosted overall business investment.#AutumnStatement
Despite an increase of £4.1 billion a year on average in this Autumn Statement, higher inflation means the real value of departmental spending is £19.1 billion lower by 2027-28 than our March forecast #AS
Foreign companies account for only 0.4 of Italy's businesses but they employ 9.4 of workers, account for 20.3 per cent of turnover and 33 per cent of R&D spending. istat.it/it/archivio/29…
#GDP growth forecast for 2024: The UK line does not look pretty.
Short-term thinking on HS2 will cause long-term damage ft.com/content/70d1b7… via @FT
John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch
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75K Followers 2K Following Editor of @FTAlphaville. Norwegian despite the Harry Potter-esque name. Author of TRILLIONS. Views mine bla bla.𝙐𝙜𝙤 𝙋𝙖.. @upanizza
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927 Followers 1K Following Data journalist @ft. Before that @data4change, @tortoise, @beyond_wrds.Greek’s economic rebound in (painful) context, @valentinaromei The country is indeed among the best recent performers in the eurozone, but it has also become the poorest. ft.com/content/ba7e18… vía @FT
🚨🗺️📊Calling all UK local data nerds… After more than a year of development, we’ve just launched #ExploreLocalStatistics, a brand new way to explore 57 datasets from across government right down to a local authority level! …lore-local-statistics.beta.ons.gov.uk 🧵1/5
China's exports to Kyrgyzstan are up 600% since Russia invaded Ukraine (top left). Exports to Kazakhstan are up 120% (top right), Belarus 200% (bottom left) and Uzbekistan 140% (bottom right). China isn't some neutral party. All this stuff likely goes to Russia and helps Putin...
Despite what he said Mr Hunt turns out to be rather reliant on higher immigration offsetting lower labour force participation. OBR have revised down labour participation rate, cutting growth. This is offset by higher immigration, raising growth.
Italy: Europe’s unlikely outperformer, by @valentinaromei The unusually strong performance is largely explained by the “super bonus”, the generous tax relief on home improvements introduced in 2020. ft.com/content/378ab9… @FT
Since 2010 the UK has had the weakest GDP per capita, the lowest wage growth, and among the highest unemployment rates of any period of government since WWII. Striking chart from the @resfoundation this morning 👇
Absolutely crucial chart to understand where we are politically as well as economically. In all likelihood households will be worse off on average at the next election than they were at the last election. That is really not a recipe for a happy electorate
Inflation is falling but prices have grown faster than incomes since 2019–20, meaning disposable income will still be 1% lower in 2024–25. On current forecasts it will take until 2025–26 for households’ purchasing power to return to its level at the end of the last parliament.
OBR says data so far is consistent with its Brexit assumptions - 15% fall in trade, and 4% fall in productivity/GDP, over long run - compared to no-Brexit counterfactual. Continued slow puncture..
"That implies £6bn of tax revenue we're highly unlikely to get and that just flatters the fiscal numbers that the Chancellor produces every year and, frankly, makes a bit of a nonsense of them." Why have fuel duties been frozen for the last 14 years? @PJTheEconomist explains
Also: the main reason the OBR's forecasts for medium-term borrowing turn out wrong is that it underestimates the level of future spending (green and grey bars). The government tells the OBR how much it will spend, then ends up spending more. Hard to blame the OBR for that!
This shows the same on public borrowing forecasts. The OBR (purple) has tended to be more accurate than externals (yellow) over one year, though less so over longer forecast horizons. 18/25
@CeeMacBee I wondered when McBride of Tuftonstein would turn up Still using value uncorrected for inflation rather than volumes. The article is clear so are those quoted in it as well small UK exporters who have been screaming about the added costs with no one listening #BrexitDisaster
The fiscal rule, the "headroom", is whether the national debt is forecast to be falling between March 2028 and March 2029. Whether we are meeting this daft rule by £10bn or missing it by £10bn is neither here nor there and should not be determining fiscal policy
"It's ludicrous that we should be thinking about whether we will or won't cut taxes [...] off the back of some very uncertain forecasts about what might or might not be happening five years hence." 📺 @PJTheEconomist on the gaming of fiscal rules: ifs.org.uk/articles/gamin…
Back in the office after 20 wonderful weeks with my babies. (Thank you to the WaPo women and men who fought for this benefit.)
This picture may play a role in Villeroy's comments. Share of disinflating basket items is back to pre-pandemic norms in France, while share of high inflation items is receding fairly quickly.
Red Sea crisis pushes up delivery times for European manufacturers—Many economists have raised concerns over the impact on the global inflation outlook from the crisis in the Red Sea. ft.com/content/6c1145… @FT @valentinaromei
Where does the phrase “upper case” and “lower case” come from for big/small letters? It’s a printers’ thing. (See this pic — am at the Tipoteca museum outside Venice.)
[Chart is a rough and ready joining of historic births data here ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… with the underlying data from today's population projections here ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Not perfect at the join but pretty sure this picture is basically what they're saying.]
Something very odd about today's ONS population projections...they assume not only that fertility doesn't continue it's recent fall, but that it recovers sharply and stabilises. Take with a very large pinch of salt..
Another fascinating piece by @jburnmurdoch “A new global gender divide is emerging” ft.com/content/29fd9b…