returnoncapital @returnoncaps
Global Macro investor. Joined October 2025-
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Zuck’s been doing this with meta, larry and sergey with Goog, and’s bezos with amzn all along. Figure out cash cow, and then venture bets on yourself all the way
That's what being a post-money founder looks like. You stop optimising for money but instead focus on scale / relevance / cultural influence (and maybe eventually status/power). And weirdly that can make the underlying thing much bigger. Cause you become your own VC, making
Can’t believe this app is free
Wtf is this satire. Europe and the Saudis have lost the plot so hard. Old money silliness, usually leads to no money outcomes.
Une annonce hors normes. Vous connaissez mon intérêt pour les mangas. Vous savez aussi ma détermination à attirer en France les investissements qui créent des emplois et rendent possibles les projets les plus ambitieux. Avec l’Arabie saoudite, nous faisons une annonce sans
@negligible_cap Jeff Favuzza is goated ngl
@astridwilde1 I say it with u - Life is a Joy Astrid! ✊
@TMTLongShort ASKB is a game changer. Really really good at running backtests and clarifying priors on big picture views too!
Cc @TMTLongShort curious what you think of this characterization.
1) it’s the rate of change of spending that matters for markets, not the absolute dollar amounts as much. 2) defense spending truly is very inefficient from a market capital allocation perspective, if it leads to predictable steady state compounders instead of dynamic opps.
What is wild thought is that the AI spending has created innumerable bottlenecks and market opportunities while the defense sector really has not been a serious trade of the same magnitude. Tell you two things:
Chart of the Day: Four companies now spend at a staggering scale. Hyperscaler AI capex is on track for ~$733B in 2026, about 87% of the base US defense budget.
@elonmusk this would be so awesome. Great cities deserve great public places.
Should we rebuild the Sutro Baths of San Francisco?
@AtelierMissor_ How and where do I buy this? In Paris for the week would love to scoop one from the atelier if possible?
@TMTLongShort There are going to be way more of these, and for every theme in the market. Makes trading within day job compliance restrictions more feasible sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
Please just write your own stuff man. It’s the last thing that’ll remain authentic to you.
Bro this is soo much AI. I’m sure these are Jim’s own thoughts augmented with AI for the writing. But the tone, sentence structure, etc is 100% AI which now just draws an impulsive avoidance response. There may be plenty relevant alpha here. But i’ll never find out.
Bessent Is Not Reacting. He Is Forcing Bretton Woods 2.0, and getting out in front. Bessent is emerging as the most consequential Treasury Secretary since Alexander Hamilton and much of the policy establishment still does not see it. This is not a random turn in markets. It is
HOTS (Higher order thinking skills ;))
Dating apps introduced distribution at scale to the sexual marketplace. Men value access to sex while women value the possibility of a long-term relationship. Because sex can be fleeting and without recourse men are willing to sleep with women that are below them in “value”
The end state of owning a successful business is to have it generate enough cash to provide liquidity to owners (founders, investors, employees) thru dividends and buybacks. Private companies do that all the time. You just dont hear it with startups coz v few are cashflow +
Just how wealthy are the Collisons? They invested 100s of M into @arcinstitute and 200M into a single hedge fund (SALP) They must have realized billions of dollars of liquidity in Stripe
Suicidal empathy. Europeans should stop writing/accepting woke ass bullshit like this in their mainstream journals. The men who invaded cueta were illegal and unskilled. Europe does not need more of them. Protect your damn borders.
@TMTLongShort 1) why material abundance? Like 0 marginal cost of goods and services? Diffusion timeline may still be a decade. + rate limiters of power, silicon, and capital (debt, equity) now no? 2) why vol in everything if AGI around the corner? You think life would get boring w abundance?
Also insane flex to have Volcker write your foreword WHILE Fed Chair. Really 1/1
Macro’s getting interesting again. Brushing off on lessons from the 🐐
Riley @ioe_cA
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