Rafael Ch @raffa_ch
Partner and LatAm/Emerging Markets Senior Analyst at @SignumGlobal. Fmr lead economist @CrisisGroup, Postdoc @Princeton, and Ph.D. in Politics at @nyuniversity. linkedin.com/in/rafael-ch-b… NYC Joined July 2010-
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After a month-long political rollercoaster, #Venezuela now looks set for something resembling to a competitive presidential election on 28 July. But is it? A short(ish) thread:
Argentina: Milei's Revised Omnibus, Fiscal, and Labor Reforms Expected to Pass ‘in-general’ in the House via @raffa_ch
¿Con mucha inercia inflacionaria es mejor ser gradualista? Muchos sugieren que sí, pero esta notita sugiere que... No. Con suficiente inercia es mejor no ser gradualista, mejor no evitar por completo el costo de una recesión. ¿Relevante para argentina hoy? ¿Comentarios?
In a week everyone will be talking about Yellen and the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA). Here is all you need to know so you are prepared. Thread. 1/
The Economist on recent changes to the IMF's policy of lending into arrears -- shifts in intended to speed up the restructuring process by reducing the ability of bilateral creditors (like China) to hold up the process economist.com/finance-and-ec… 1/2
The smartest move by the PBOC right now to relieve currency pressures would be a one-time significant devaluation (say 10-20%) which then serves as a clearly defended floor through rhetoric and action.
#EncuestaEF Intención de voto para Jefe de Gobierno en #CDMX: -@ClaraBrugadaM 42% -@STaboadaMx 37% -@Chertorivski 6% Y así van por segmentos 👇 elfinanciero.com.mx/encuestas-ef/2…
Monetary policy does not affect risk premiums. An interesting paper by Stefan Nagel and Zhengyang Xu at NBER grumpy-economist.com/p/the-fed-and-…
#EncuestaEF Intención de voto para Jefe de Gobierno en #CDMX elfinanciero.com.mx/encuestas-ef/2…
Why Brazil needs a fiscal adjustment? I'll let two charts tell you why. Some assumptions (% year, 2024-2035 averages) Real GDP growth = 1.8% Real effective interest rate on debt (deflated by the GDP deflator) = 3.5% GDP deflator = 4%
What is your favorite R package for computing IPW ATE estimators with normalized weights and considering the pscore model's estimation effect when computing standard errors? I bet @noah_greifer has opinions!
🥳🥳After a joint effort of students, alumni and professors, the board dismissed the president of @URosario that tried to destroy the succesful academic project we built @EconUrosario 🥳🥳
Supongo que la deuda tampoco ha aumentado, solo se ha desplazado hacia arriba. #Eufemismos Fuente: Hacienda Monto: Billones de pesos
If you missed @ChicagoFed President @Austan_Goolsbee's presentation on Markus' Academy—"Monetary Policy in an Unusual Time"—you can watch a video or read the summary here: bit.ly/42Rg9Na
A partir de hoy ya pueden interactuar con el mapa de Presidentes de México a través del tiempo (1994 - 2018). Los resultados vienen desagregados a nivel nacional y estatal. Con mucho cariño por parte del equipo de CIPOL @nmas😊 @Fer_Caso,@mariajosejima,@jpfmansur,@AleDeAlbaF
Mexico: MORENA’s pension bill likely to pass, a sign of increasingly aggressive legislation to come via @raffa_ch
As the #IMF #WorldBank spring meetings kick off tomorrow here is a relevant #heatmap (also for Day14 of the #30DayChartChallenge), that shows the share of remittances as a percentage of recieving country's GDP in 2022. We observe that: 1) Some sending regions are vital in the…
How to geopolitical risks affect global inflation? The answer is in this paper: dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4…
Bitcoin may be many things, but it is not a geopolitical hedge. This weekend was another good empirical test. BTC traded with a near perfect negative correlation over the last day to $PAXG, a gold backed token. If anything it's becoming an even worse hedge over time.
Khoa Vu @KhoaVuUmn
62K Followers 12K FollowingMassimo Pulejo @massimo_pulejo
1K Followers 1K Following Postdoc at Uni of Milan and CLEAN. PhD from NYU. Political Economy, Comparative Politics, especially causes and consequences of populism and organized crime.John B. Holbein @JohnHolbein1
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8K Followers 2K Following Carlo Alberto Chair, @CollegioCA. Prof. Ordinario (Full) of Pol Econ, @EconomicsUnito. Capo maggiore, AL CAPONE (Am Lat Crime and Policy Network). Dad (jokes).Arantxa Rodriguez-Uri.. @MAranzazuRU
3K Followers 3K Following Research & Policy Manager at @JPAL. PhD @PUPolitics. @LSEPublicPolicy grad. @uc3m trained. Interested in education. Focus on youth. Tweets my own.Horacio Larreguy @HLarreguy
3K Followers 761 Following Working on misinformation, political economy, and development. @ITAM_mx @JPAL and often visiting @IASToulouse and @TSEinf. Formerly at @Harvard. @MITEcon PhD.Nico Ajzenman @Nicolas_Ajz
14K Followers 4K Following Econ Assistant Professor @McGillU. Affiliated to @IZA_bonn, @JPAL and @EconFGVSP. 🇦🇷 in 🇨🇦. Newsletter - Esto no es Economía: https://t.co/B2xECFXQIOChristopher Blair @Chris_W_Blair
2K Followers 2K Following Assistant Prof @Princeton @PUPolitics | Ph.D. @politicsatpenn | Alum @UVA | Borders, Militancy, Forced Displacement, Climate Change, Foreign PolicyPedro H. C. Sant'Anna @pedrohcgs
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789 Followers 1K Following PhD student at @nyuniversity politics. Arm Ukraine now. Trans rights are human rightsEmiel Awad @EmielAwad
1K Followers 893 Following Political Economist. Previously @ Princeton University, London School of Economics, University of Rochester ⳥🇳🇱🇪🇬Lucas Warwar @LucasWarwar
7K Followers 6K Following A convex combination of triathlon and economics | PhD student @StanfordEcon | former RA @UniBocconi @unit_crime, MSc @pimes_em | Labor, Public & ML | from 🇧🇷Sandra Aguilar-Gómez @sandraguilarg
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48 Followers 5K FollowingJuan Pablo F. Mansur .. @jpfmansur
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56 Followers 5K FollowingSalvador Traettino B. @STraettino
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33 Followers 5K FollowingMary Wark @MaryWark46560
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109 Followers 2K Following Good things come at the good times i love those that loves me and live my life been a chef is always my dreams 💜🌎💙💙🍛🍲🥗🍝🍜🍨🍧🥘🧆🥣Ricki Prvitt @RPrvit
75 Followers 5K FollowingPrecious Coard @CoardPreci35742
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5K Followers 5K Following Professor of Economics @FIU | Consultant @WorldBank | Faculty Fellow @fiu_sipa | PhD and MA in Economics @VanderbiltU | BSc in Economics @LSEnews | #EconTwitterRethaddoo @rethaddoo18702
106 Followers 3K FollowingCynthia Brown @CynthiaBro8874
63 Followers 3K FollowingJenna Smith @JennaSm59049811
113 Followers 3K FollowingSignum Global Advisor.. @SignumGlobal
525 Followers 367 Following At the intersection of global policy and financial markets. Providing global macro and emerging markets research, analysis & consulting.Khoa Vu @KhoaVuUmn
62K Followers 12K FollowingJeffrey Wooldridge @jmwooldridge
80K Followers 1K Following University Distinguished Professor of Economics, Michigan State University. Econometrician and textbook author. Two dogs, one rabbit, two fish, and N + 2 cats.Massimo Pulejo @massimo_pulejo
1K Followers 1K Following Postdoc at Uni of Milan and CLEAN. PhD from NYU. Political Economy, Comparative Politics, especially causes and consequences of populism and organized crime.Chris Blattman @cblatts
102K Followers 5K Following Economist, political scientist & writer @UChicago @HarrisPolicy. See my book Why We Fight: https://t.co/pwWjDnGY6OPaul Goldsmith-Pinkha.. @paulgp
51K Followers 2K Following @YaleSOM professor & Bulls fan. I study consumer finance, and econometrics is a big part of my research identity. @sgil1122’s life-partner. He/him/hisGerardo L. Munck @GerardoMunck
29K Followers 863 Following Professor, political scientist, Latin Americanist, at USC. Tweets in English and Spanish.Ethan BdM @ethanbdm
11K Followers 549 Following Ethan Bueno de Mesquita. Studying conflict, accountability, and political economy @HarrisPolicy. "A tragic waste of intellectual potential." - R2Claudio Ferraz @claudferraz
42K Followers 2K Following Professor of Economics @ubcVSE & Professor de Economia @PUCRioEconomia | Sometimes free surfer 🇧🇷 🇨🇦Alice Evans @_alice_evans
51K Followers 2K Following Visiting Fellow @Stanford Writing ‘The Great Gender Divergence’ with @PrincetonUPressJohn B. Holbein @JohnHolbein1
45K Followers 38K Following Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, Education @UVA I share social science.Tine N. Paulsen @TinePaulsen
2K Followers 2K Following Assistant Professor at @uscpoir. Excited about historical political economy and political institutions || @NYUpolitics PhD || 🇩🇰 she/herJuan Vargas @juanf_vargas
8K Followers 2K Following Carlo Alberto Chair, @CollegioCA. Prof. Ordinario (Full) of Pol Econ, @EconomicsUnito. Capo maggiore, AL CAPONE (Am Lat Crime and Policy Network). Dad (jokes).Arantxa Rodriguez-Uri.. @MAranzazuRU
3K Followers 3K Following Research & Policy Manager at @JPAL. PhD @PUPolitics. @LSEPublicPolicy grad. @uc3m trained. Interested in education. Focus on youth. Tweets my own.Horacio Larreguy @HLarreguy
3K Followers 761 Following Working on misinformation, political economy, and development. @ITAM_mx @JPAL and often visiting @IASToulouse and @TSEinf. Formerly at @Harvard. @MITEcon PhD.Nico Ajzenman @Nicolas_Ajz
14K Followers 4K Following Econ Assistant Professor @McGillU. Affiliated to @IZA_bonn, @JPAL and @EconFGVSP. 🇦🇷 in 🇨🇦. Newsletter - Esto no es Economía: https://t.co/B2xECFXQIOFlorian Ederer @florianederer
39K Followers 2K Following Austrian 🇦🇹 Economist 📈 But definitely not an Austrian economist! @nberpubs | @ecgiorg | @cepr_org | @BUQuestromNBER @nberpubs
159K Followers 264 Following The National Bureau of Economic Research is dedicated to conducting and disseminating nonpartisan economic research.Christopher Blair @Chris_W_Blair
2K Followers 2K Following Assistant Prof @Princeton @PUPolitics | Ph.D. @politicsatpenn | Alum @UVA | Borders, Militancy, Forced Displacement, Climate Change, Foreign PolicyStanfordResearchPark @SRPPaloAlto
9K Followers 7K Following Stanford Research Park is a community of and for people who seek to invent the future.Alerta News 24 @AlertaNews24
2.0M Followers 195 Following Alertas desde todas partes del mundo las 24 horas en tiempo real. (📷 29/04/24: 🇪🇸 | Pedro Sánchez continuará como presidente del gobierno español.)Dan Rasmussen @verdadcap
39K Followers 899 Following I am the founder and CIO of Verdad Advisers. Views are my own. Join our email list: https://t.co/jbASQUtki5Damián Di Pace @DiPace4
69K Followers 536 Following Analista Económico. Conferencista. Consultor de Empresas. Periodista. Investigador y Escritor. Hoy con mi nuevo libro "El Futuro del Comercio que se viene"Juan Pablo F. Mansur .. @jpfmansur
2K Followers 2K Following investigo cosas para @nmas | opiniones a título personal | católico | datos, historia, política y arquitectura ن IG. jpfmansurLuis Gonzali @LuisGonzali
49K Followers 585 Following Matemático. Financiero. CIO. Entusiasta de la historia. Puntos de vista personales. Follows y retweets no son endorsos. Insultos = bloqueo.Vinícius Andrade @andradevini3
2K Followers 2K Following emerging markets reporter at @business | [email protected] | opinions are my ownCarlos Flores @ingcarlosflores
8K Followers 1K Following Experto en energía | Evidencio errores de los políticos en temas de Transición Energética y Cambio Climático. | MBA EGADE. Diplomados ELD, Cornell y Harvard.American Economic Lib.. @econliberties
13K Followers 773 Following The American Economic Liberties Project is fighting to realize economic liberty for all, in support of a secure, inclusive democratic society.Thiemo Fetzer 🇪�.. @fetzert
9K Followers 4K Following Accidental Economist. Prof at @warwickecon and @unibonn. Visiting Prof @GRI_LSE. Fellow @STICERD_LSE. ERC STG. CEPR @cepr_org & Associate Editor @EJ_RES.alejandro werner @alejandrowerne7
2K Followers 1K FollowingSalvador Traettino B. @STraettino
922 Followers 3K Following Aspiring researcher from Venezuela. Currently at @The_IDB. Mostly working on development and migration. Views are my own.Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA
13K Followers 339 Following Chief Global Strategist and Director of Research @bcaresearch Formerly with Goldman Sachs & IMFGame of Trades @GameofTrades_
194K Followers 582 Following Data-driven Investment Research | Follow to learn about #markets & the global #economy | Get your free 7-day trial at https://t.co/ij9EDOXEgDAndres Borenstein @Coloboren
15K Followers 1K Following Economista, profe @UTDitella, UBA economista en @Econviews. Podcaster La economía en 3 minutos https://t.co/ERs8WEvIA0 Coautor del libro Puede Fallar.Fernando Haddad @Haddad_Fernando
2.8M Followers 673 Following Ministro da Fazenda de Lula, Ex-Ministro da Educação, Ex-Prefeito de São Paulo, Professor da USPDaniel Lacalle @dlacalle_IA
147K Followers 13K Following PhD #Economist #Author. Chief Economist, Tressis. #Professor @IEbusiness #Advisor @frdelpino. YouTube: https://t.co/sjWtBdfIT7Francisco Pérez @platanomics
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85K Followers 867 Following Directora de Análisis Económico en Grupo Financiero BASE @Banco_Base. Profesora de economía del @TecdeMonterrey Opiniones a título personal.Jesse Cohen @JesseCohenInv
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8K Followers 462 Following Consultora y Asesora en economía y finanzas. Empresa de research independiente desde 1995.Jorge GL @JGutLucena
424 Followers 658 Following @CrisisGroup Video & Photography Manager. IR, Conflicts & Filmmaking/📸. And croquets .HAKAN YILMAZKUDAY @yilmazkuday
5K Followers 5K Following Professor of Economics @FIU | Consultant @WorldBank | Faculty Fellow @fiu_sipa | PhD and MA in Economics @VanderbiltU | BSc in Economics @LSEnews | #EconTwitterNicolás Massot @Nicolas_Massot
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128K Followers 4K Following La libertad no es negociable. Argentino y canalla.Alfredo Romano @romanoal
8K Followers 257 Following Presidente @romano_group | Director Economia Empresarial @UnivAustral | Autor libro DolarizarFinanzas Argy 🇦�.. @FinanzasArgy
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158K Followers 231 Following Ministro de Economía de la República Argentina. Padre de seis hijos buenísimos.Julián Yosovitch @julianyosovitch
94K Followers 2K Following Periodista mercados📉📈@cronistacom Conduzco📻 #Aftermarket LUN20H @fmmilenium y VIE19H @neuramedia #ClosingCall @GrupoIEB ProfeMFIN @UTDiTella Msc.FinanceUTDTAgarra la Pala @agarra_pala
150K Followers 239 Following No lo vas a leer, ni ver, ni escuchar en otro ladoPablo Rossi @PRossiOficial
295K Followers 3K Following Periodista. En TV Hora 20 por @lanacionmas Libros: Libertad o barbarie. Populismo Nunca MásSalvador Vitelli @SalvadorVitell1
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5K Followers 2K Following La vida no vale nada. Paisano de José Alfredo. Economista. Conservador. Al lado del camino. Opiniones puramente personales. 🇲🇽🇧🇷Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston
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26K Followers 4K Following Venezuelan, Latam energy correspondent. Proud mom to three/ Periodista de petróleo. Orgullosa mamá de 3. Autora del libro Oro Rojo. Mis opiniones son miítasCNW @ConflictsW
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72K Followers 7K Following Venezuelan. Administrative/Constitutional Law Professor. Consultant. @CSIS Senior AssociateFrancisco J. Monaldi @fmonaldi
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463K Followers 12K Following Trump Posts From Truth Social & More So They Can Be Shared With Millions On X. Make Sure To Tap (🔔Notify+) So Tweets Cannot Be Suppressed. No Affiliation.Argentina: Milei's Revised Omnibus, Fiscal, and Labor Reforms Expected to Pass ‘in-general’ in the House via @raffa_ch
¿Con mucha inercia inflacionaria es mejor ser gradualista? Muchos sugieren que sí, pero esta notita sugiere que... No. Con suficiente inercia es mejor no ser gradualista, mejor no evitar por completo el costo de una recesión. ¿Relevante para argentina hoy? ¿Comentarios?
Monetary policy does not affect risk premiums. An interesting paper by Stefan Nagel and Zhengyang Xu at NBER grumpy-economist.com/p/the-fed-and-…
🥳🥳After a joint effort of students, alumni and professors, the board dismissed the president of @URosario that tried to destroy the succesful academic project we built @EconUrosario 🥳🥳
If you missed @ChicagoFed President @Austan_Goolsbee's presentation on Markus' Academy—"Monetary Policy in an Unusual Time"—you can watch a video or read the summary here: bit.ly/42Rg9Na
O sea, no les van a dar mantenimiento... 😂
Dice el secretario de @Hacienda_Mexico @R_Ramirez_O que en 2025 se logrará reducir el déficit porque ya no habrá gasto de capital en las obras emblemáticas.
Alzas generalizadas en los rendimientos de los instrumentos gubernamentales en México. Esto puede ser resultado de un ajuste en la expectativa (menos recortes de tasa de Banco de México) y mayor aversión al riesgo sobre México, ante el avance de la iniciativa de reforma al…
Mexico: MORENA’s pension bill likely to pass, a sign of increasingly aggressive legislation to come via @raffa_ch
Yes, the historic correlation between crime and inflation is eerie, and points to a common factor: the perception of societal breakdown (note that the chart below is slightly out of date now).
I actually think we should take it seriously that multiple trends (low inflation, low homicide, etc) broke dramatically during the pandemic. Since nobody is seriously arguing that accommodative Fed policy drove the crime wave, maybe there are deeper underlying drivers of both.
Por estas cosas pago Internet.
Commodities are exploding higher. Is the Fed losing control and credibility? Thread. 1/
Brazil: Petrobras CEO unlikely to be dismissed via @raffa_ch
Excelente este paper y el titulo. En pocas palabras: a la gente no le importa si tus condiciones iniciales eran mejores o peores (y por ende si te esforzaste mas o menos). Te va a juzgar por los resultados finales.
Core CPI coming in very hot for the third month in the row. The numbers are not kind to the thesis that January was a seasonal anomaly. 12 months: 3.5% 6 months: 3.2% 3 months: 4.6% 1 month: 4.6%
Breaking news: The world’s biggest chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, has agreed to make its most advanced products in Arizona from 2028, boosting US’s efforts to bring the semiconductor supply chain on to home soil. on.ft.com/49IPpAB
The Fed hiked rates above 5%, and yet the US economy doesn't break. Here is why. Thread. 1/
With rising geopolitical tensions and a surge in trade restrictive policies, global linkages are changing. @GitaGopinath, @a_presbitero, @PetiaTopalova and I show that trade between blocs declined vs trade within blocs or with non-aligned countries. imf.org/en/Publication…
How expensive are tradable goods in Argentina, after so much inflation in recent months? The answer is "about the same" as in the US at the official exchange rate and only slightly lower at the parallel "blue" rate. Just three months ago, after the last major devaluation of…
Recently published in REStud, ``The Macroeconomics of Supply Chain Disruptions,'' from @DAcemogluMIT and @mashalirezaa: restud.com/the-macroecono…