Jeff Kassel @pinatubo2007
Skeptic and former owner of Moonlight Plumbing and Heating. U.S.A Joined August 2014-
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In a functioning democracy, 75-year-old men in obvious decline would not be nominated to run for President, so we must face the reality that our democracy has failed and is manipulated by political elites who care about their future, not America's future.
Donald Trump has been rated by political historians as the worst President in American history. Yet tens of millions are willing to give him 4 more years. people.com/historians-ran…
The enormous money creation over the last 16 years means that new money must find a home, and much of it is finding a home in stocks and real estate. Historical references mean less when the economy floods with new $$$. We have inflation in stocks, and inflation in houses.
Our court system better hurry with the outstanding Trump cases or it won't be taken seriously. Trump should have been tried a year ago. These constant delays over idiotic appeals is galling. We need a resolution before the election. Trump can appeal while in prison.
America is screwing our trading partners. We get their products, the cell phones, computers, car parts, etc., and we give them printed paper. Our money supply has increased 80% since year 2000. We've abused our reserve currency status and set the stage for a new Great Depression.
Time to stop trading off the payroll data. The downward revisions in 2023 totalled an epic 443k. More than 40% of payroll growth in 2023 didn’t even come from the survey but from the fairy-tale ‘Birth-Death’ model.
Why are we counting unemployment? Why aren't we counting "employment", "hours worked", SS and Income taxes paid to get a truer number instead of lies put out by the media? Do you believe the GDP number? It contains government spend and deficit spending. Do you believe the CPI?
A debt Ponzi has kept America's standard of living fairly high, but how long can that go on without a collapse. I believe we'll see another Great Depression my lifetime. Total debt in America is over $100 trillion if you count all debt. We're going to have serious defaults.
Fox News founder Rupert Murdoch deposed in Smartmatic election lawsuit demanding over $2 Billion for damages, but it hasn't changed Fox's habits....they still promote false information despite what they paid out in damages. Lies sell! cnb.cx/3uDeSwo
Trump has a terrible record in legal cases. As president and even before he lost case after case including the 60 cases he brought insisting the election was stolen. He could not prevent his taxes from being released and he'll lose this case in NY. Tax fraud cases are coming.
UBS Worried. 3/29/23: Credit Suisse violated the terms of a 2014 criminal plea agreement in which it promised to stop helping Americans hide assets from the U.S. tax authorities, according to a Senate report released Wednesday.
3/29/23: Credit Suisse violated the terms of a 2014 criminal plea agreement in which it promised to stop helping Americans hide assets from the U.S. tax authorities, according to a Senate report released Wednesday.
Debt sinks entire countries. We saw it in Greece, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Sri Lanka...and when the dust clears, sometimes there's not much of an economy left. In the Roaring 20s America built a debt bubble that was liquidated in bankruptcies and bank failures in the 30s.
Debt service of our Federal debt: You'd think somebody important would be commenting on this horrendous number, but I've scoured the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, the NY Times, Barrons, Bloomberg....there's NOTHING!
The yield inversion between the 6-month and 10-year Treasuries is 142 an astonishing 142 basis points. The FED is letting bonds roll off its balance sheet so someone's refinancing the debt. I wonder why there's such demand for 10-year US Treasury bonds.
People may wonder why the Swiss Inflation rate is so low compared to other developed countries. Statista - Switzerland: Inflation rate from 1987 to 2027 (compared to previous year) statista.com/statistics/261…
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@MishGEA Narrator: It was already too late to prevent an economic collapse.
Well…not exactly. You see the U.S. Treasury created more dollar “reserve assets” held by foreign central banks abroad ($150+ Trillion), both Ponzi Financial assets and dollar reserves for the petrodollar oil trade, than the U.S. Treasury debt and stock market valuations. For…
@WallStreetSilv Putin is correct. If the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency those dollars in other countries would flood back into the US ...we will see hyperinflation as it would be too much money chasing too few goods. It would be a collapse of our economy.
@Jkylebass All of the countries with terrorists that want to do us harm are noncontiguous. All of the countries that Biden has gone to war with, or might go to war with, are noncontiguous. No limits on bad guys from those countries!
1/3 As the mkts eventually figured out, this a.m.'s emp report was hideous. The increase in headline payrolls owed a huge debt (again) to govt. And the quality of jobs impugned by RECORD # of multiple job holders while Full Time Emp dropped 1.5m!!! yes, MILLION.
The bad policy and weak management are hurting the Californian economy and people. Who would give a dime to California to invest in energy when the regulatory environment is so punitive that you can't make money?
@GovChristie Smells like hot garbage
@elerianm @tylercowen @opinion Lag effect is not in yet for a recession based on monetary supply decrease... another 3-4 months at most is calculated a year ago for the right timing based on historic lag experience
@tribelaw It will be dismissed or never paid so who cares
3/5 Many make this argument. They assume real yields during the QE period from 2009 to 2020 were "normal" and the current level is "abnormal." I've argued this has the anchoring backward. Current real yields are now normal, and the 2009 to 2020 real yields were "abnormal."
@AccountableGOP Merrrick Garland did not indict Trump. Jack Smith did not indict Trump. The DOJ did not indict Trump. GRAND JURIES, made up of citizens who saw the EVIDENCE, indicted Trump.
@mmpadellan He had good intentions behind his policies, but they had adverse economic consequences at that time. Nobody ever questioned his honesty, integrity, or sense of humanity though. He was a good human being.
@BillGertz Kissinger and Nixon should have left China as the hermit kingdom
@elerianm Core inflation is the change in the costs of goods and services but does NOT include those from the food and energy sectors. As long as the stats are manipulated we will never know the true status of the economy. If we are in for a hard landing it will hit us in the face.
@elerianm I suspect the Fed have already overshot. The overtightening - which happens every single time of course - will likely rule out the possibility of a soft landing. The amount of leverage and sharp increases in cost of capital will really start to hurt over the next 6-12 months.
@elerianm Wrong. Oil will remain high, scarcity of supply will continue, inflation will persist, the consumer will eventually tap out, and the economy and market will crash.
@LynAldenContact @GeorgegammonCom That could be considered an insult to dumpster fires
@menlobear The Fed mandate. Blowing a bubble to suck in the middle class, and then rape them when you pop the bubble. And Jaime Dimon laughs......