Ian Mulheirn @ianmulheirn
Economist. Associate @ResFoundation, chair @genrentuk and help out at @econ_SPE. Previously UK policy chief @InstituteGC, @OxfordEconomics @HMTreasury London Joined May 2010-
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Next election is arguably the first competitive one in the era of Bank independence when cutting rates has been an option. Will it, and possible post-election recriminations, test the settlement?
Remember all those debates about whether the Coalition’s plan for post-2010 fiscal consolidation to be 80% spending cuts 20% tax rises was wise?
Remember all those debates about whether the Coalition’s plan for post-2010 fiscal consolidation to be 80% spending cuts 20% tax rises was wise?
Great bit of investigative journalism here from Joel - incoming Brexit checks will add £8.50 per month to the average household grocery bill
Great bit of investigative journalism here from Joel - incoming Brexit checks will add £8.50 per month to the average household grocery bill
Interesting study on relationship twixt interest rates and house prices, although obviously it doesn't fully answer the question: how does this end up correcting and why hasn't it happened yet?
Interesting study on relationship twixt interest rates and house prices, although obviously it doesn't fully answer the question: how does this end up correcting and why hasn't it happened yet?
Renting in England is being debated by MPs right now🚨 This could be a huge step towards fixing the renting crisis, but positive progress is far from guaranteed... Please follow our live coverage of the Renters (Reform) Bill debate, and comment/RT to spread the word! 🏘️🧵 [1/]
🚨🚨 We @RentersReformCo members will not accept this Renters (Reform) Bill 🚨🚨 As it enters its remaining House of Commons stages this afternoon, we are warning that in its current form the Bill "will be a failure". Read full statement below:
<0.02% of UK GDP 🎉 That’ll show them
🚨Last year was the hottest on record. Britain urgently needs to decarbonise our infrastructure. But how can we both reach net zero and support low-to-middle income households? 1/x
Peres Jepchirchir put on a show in London! ⚡️ A women-only World Record for the Olympic Champion. #LondonMarathon
Sam Freedman @Samfr
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2K Followers 2K Following Policy + Best Practice @SMITFCharity/ @SMITF_frontline: homelessness + frontline worker support. Vice Chair, Patients Voices @RCoANews. Disabled Dad. Jew.Excellent reflective essay by Columbia history professor Mark Mazower on the protests that have engulfed the university ft.com/content/f0e3e8…
Wholesale retailers and supermarkets will be tied up in further bureaucracy around food standards, but independent analysis for ITV News found it could cost millions - pushing up the prices they charge their customers. Watch the full report below:
Amid the panic about rising disability benefit costs, this is a crucial point from Res Foundation The long phasing in of Universal Credit is saving serious money from many disabled people & leaving them seriously out of pocket
The disappearance of @SangitaMyska is trending. Now we need other media publications and news outlets to cover it. Let's shame @LBC into reinstating her. No media company should be able to get away with "cancelling" one of its presenters.
Fascinating new @TheIFS paper finds that the closure of 70% of police stations in London was not cost effective and led to higher crime levels, with particularly negative impacts on the poor ifs.org.uk/sites/default/…
One of Darfur's biggest cities, El Fasher, is now a "kill box", analysts say. The city is under a tightening siege by RSF forces, with its escape routes cut off. Fuel and water are running out. And the RSF has committed massacres in other Darfur cities. theglobeandmail.com/world/article-…
On Russian reserves. To answer some of the reasonable objections: I am not very worried about precedent. I think the contingency is well defined. If you engage in physical war, then you are at risk. Holding dollar or euro reserves does not imply holding them in the US or in…
The British experience says privatising the railway leads to higher ridership. Except most growth happened under emergency nationalisation. The French comparison suggests privatisation is not that big a deal. Except the French railway is now more privatised than the British one.
@JohnSpringford @ianmulheirn @dan_grey @FryEmily That’s right. Of course, it would be much easier *not to* impose checks if relevant UK and EU regulators had established ways of cooperating and controlling risk.
Higher rates hurt! 👉 higher interest rates lowered UK firms’ investment & employment by 8% & 2% 🔗 cepr.org/voxeu/columns/… @cepr_org @I_Am_NickBloom @LSEEcon @StanfordGSB @bankofengland @bankunderground
Full 2023 detailed services trade data from the @ONS is out today. Unlike goods trade (which fell 7% in current prices between 2022-2023), services trade posted another strong year (growing +17%). ...🧵
@ianmulheirn @dan_grey @FryEmily @AntonSpisak Good summary. Especially the last one - the UK is no longer part of the EU's alert system for dodgy goods, Safety Gate, so needs to do inspections.
It is worth watching this CNN video from the moment Emory Econ Professor @CarolineFohlin came across the violent arrest of a protester on campus and asked the police, with shock, "What are you doing?" That's all that prompted an officer to hurl her to the ground and handcuff her.
A CNN crew witnessed at least two professors detained by Atlanta police, including @EmoryUniversity economics professor Caroline Fohlin and Noëlle McAfee, chair of the philosophy department. #FreePalestine cnn.com/business/live-…
Call centres force most employees to act like an algorithm by extensively restricting their discretion. What a lot of CEOs are about to discover is that people will accept such behaviour from other humans far more readily than from something they know is a machine.
The CEO of Tata Consultancy Services thinks we are a year or so away from chatbots being able to analyze a customer’s account history and do most of what a human call center operator does today. He expects the need for humans will be minimal after that. I agree that looks likely
This is a good example of why we should be careful not to simply equate ‘investment spending’ with ‘growth-enhancing spending’ or ‘spending that benefits future generations’. Lots more on this (and other questions) here: ifs.org.uk/articles/publi…
It turns out you can do quite a lot in ten years. An amazing round up of the more than 90 collaborations and the changes that are happening as a result. Thank you
In our final blog the Centre’s Executive Director, Nancy Hey (@Work_Life_You) reflects on the achievements & challenges of the last decade, & looks ahead at the work still to be done: whatworkswellbeing.org/blog/what-work…
@ianmulheirn No I don’t think so. The idea that a sovereign in charge of its own currency faces a substantial ‘credit risk premium’ is very unlikely in my view. It’s more likely to be downward rigidity in house prices I would think… no forced sellers.
Don’t tell the get rich quick landlords!
1st the authors show that the decline in yield since 2000 was almost enough to *double* prices relative to rents (and incomes) 3/8
@ianmulheirn Always loved this chart from a Benny B speech called ‘debt dynamics’ - suggests house price growth will be lacklustre for some time to come.