Heather Long @byHeatherLong
Columnist and Editorial Board member @washingtonpost | Data aficionado | Email: [email protected] washingtonpost.com/people/heather… Washington, DC Joined February 2011-
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Trump's advisers keep downplaying the extent of his tariff proposals -- saying this 10% idea is just one more extreme idea among many -- but then Trump himself keeps suggesting he would actually like to be *more* aggressive
Use our migrant child labor data! More children are crossing the border on their own than ever before, and thousands are ending up doing dangerous, illegal jobs. We sued the government for a huge trove of data about these kids, and shared it all here: github.com/nytimes/hhs-ch…
The first container ship just called at the port of Baltimore since the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse on March 26th. Excellent work by the salvage crews clearing the channel in to restore Baltimore’s connection to the global ocean so quickly. I thought it would take longer.
Several people who have spoken with Trump about the Fed said he wants someone in charge of the central bank who will, in effect, treat him as an ex officio member of the central bank’s rate-setting committee. @AndrewRestuccia @learyreports wsj.com/economy/centra…
NEW mortgage rate high for 2024 The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumps to 7.52% Highest reading since November 13, 2023 Spread: 281 bps
If you don't follow @byHeatherLong to get a good dive into these reports, you're really missing out. We don't always agree on the meaning of the data, but I know Heather knows it better than most and can suss out the nuances.
If you don't follow @byHeatherLong to get a good dive into these reports, you're really missing out. We don't always agree on the meaning of the data, but I know Heather knows it better than most and can suss out the nuances.
The US economy expanded at a 1.6% pace in Q1. That's below expectations of 2.5%. What happened? 1. Americans aren't buying many goods (esp. cars). Services spending is still strong, but not goods 2. The Federal gov't isn't spending as much. 3. Exports and inventories were low
JUST IN: The US economy grew 1.6% in Q1. That’s solid, but it’s a clear slowdown from 3.4% in Q4. Consumption moderated a little bit. Biz investment was still solid. ***But the biggest change was a slowdown in exports and government spending*** Q1 2024: 1.6% Q4 2023: 3.4% Q3…
There are many sources of monopsony power, some of which are endemic to the labor process. But there are also practices that create monopsony by artifice. Like non-competes. This new rule change banning them could help reduce that harm and raise dynamism. thehill.com/business/46154…
Big news: The FTC just announced a ban on "noncompete contracts". Roughly 1 in 5 workers are currently subject to a noncompete, which makes it hard to leave a company and go work elsewhere in the same industry. This is a win for rank-and-file workers. wsj.com/politics/polic…
Breaking news: House passes $95 billion foreign aid package, with funds for Ukraine and Israel, with bipartisan support washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/…
So excited to announce that @NatashaRSarin and @dannyyagan and I are launching @The_Budget_Lab at Yale Law School. Budget scoring is an incredibly important part of the policy process and our hope is to bring a new perspective, with a focus on innovation and transparency. 1/
Incredible shift: Wall Street has taken a June rate cut off the table. A week ago the market was pricing in a 60% chance the Fed would cut rates in June. Now it's a 16.5% chance.
Disinflation has stalled - as @KarenDynan pointed out yesterday @PIIE #globaleconomicprospects ahead of today's CPI release. Not a reason for panic as so many rightly note. But this is not just a blip or special factors. @tomkeene @DianeSwonk @jasonfurman
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64K Followers 1K Following Writing a data-driven newsletter about economics @ https://t.co/IanQ9oPoPi | Nuance? In this economy? | he/him | Bi/panJason Furman @jasonfurman
157K Followers 2K Following Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.Jeff Stein @JStein_WaPo
141K Followers 2K Following White House economics reporter for The Washington Post. New John Brown podcast @ https://t.co/fcYKyU9RMG. [email protected], Signal: 9178872891.Catherine Rampell @crampell
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227K Followers 2K Following Professor @UMichEcon & @FordSchool | Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst & @PIIE | Intro Econ textbook author | Think Like an Economist podcast.Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior
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26K Followers 5K Following Executive Director - @employamerica. RTs/likes != endorsements. https://t.co/tKsuuvVYoc @skandaamarnath on other sites. Charitable interpretation advisedNick Bunker @nick_bunker
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64K Followers 1K Following Writing a data-driven newsletter about economics @ https://t.co/IanQ9oPoPi | Nuance? In this economy? | he/him | Bi/panConor Sen @conorsen
92K Followers 295 Following Columnist for @opinion. Founder of Peachtree Creek Investments. Sun Belt/monoculture enthusiast. The future is a policy choice.Jason Furman @jasonfurman
157K Followers 2K Following Professor of Practice at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some tweets might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.Jeff Stein @JStein_WaPo
141K Followers 2K Following White House economics reporter for The Washington Post. New John Brown podcast @ https://t.co/fcYKyU9RMG. [email protected], Signal: 9178872891.Catherine Rampell @crampell
190K Followers 2K Following Syndicated op-ed columnist @washingtonpost, commentator @cnn, special correspondent @newshour. Previously econ/theater NYT. Econ, immigration, tax, politics etcJustin Wolfers @JustinWolfers
227K Followers 2K Following Professor @UMichEcon & @FordSchool | Senior Fellow @BrookingsInst & @PIIE | Intro Econ textbook author | Think Like an Economist podcast.Adam Ozimek @ModeledBehavior
83K Followers 868 Following Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://t.co/toyjfDruRuJeanna Smialek @jeannasmialek
66K Followers 2K Following Federal Reserve and economy reporter @nytimes. Pittsburgh native, Tar Heel. Wrote a book on central banking's new era, link below.Diane Swonk @DianeSwonk
46K Followers 615 Following Chief Economist, @KPMG_US. Briefs Federal Reserve. Trained labor economist. 36 yrs experience in financial services & consulting . RTs not endorsements. She/herJordan Weissmann @JHWeissmann
49K Followers 4K Following @Semafor Washington editor. Formerly: Slate, The Atlantic.Arin Dube @arindube
53K Followers 1K Following Provost Prof. of Economics (UMass Amherst). Inequality, labor market policies and competition. Book project: The Wage Standard. @nberpubs @MITshapingworkSam Ro 📈 @SamRo
66K Followers 3K Following Award-winning writer of @TKerLLC, the newsletter helping investors maintain sanity amid the noise. 25k+ subs. Long-term optimist. Short-term cautious optimist.Skanda Amarnath @IrvingSwisher
26K Followers 5K Following Executive Director - @employamerica. RTs/likes != endorsements. https://t.co/tKsuuvVYoc @skandaamarnath on other sites. Charitable interpretation advisedNick Bunker @nick_bunker
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72K Followers 3K Following Econ/business reporter @nytimes. Formerly @fivethirtyeight @WSJ. Adjunct @newmarkjschool. He/him [email protected] Photo: Earl Wilson/NYMark Zandi @Markzandi
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17K Followers 3K Following Federal Reserve editor @business. Former Morning Money @politico. Also: @WSJ @cqrollcall @ConMonitorNews. Tips, research, jokes: [email protected].Chris Miller @crmiller1
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Bison may look friend-shaped, but they already have all the friends they want. Keep your distance and don't make it awkward.
The advantage of data dependent policymaking is that conditional on a set of publicly known information, we don’t get surprises:
Tomorrow feels like a weirdly uneventful Fed meeting. Unless Powell makes some sort of comment about rate hikes in the presser, which I can’t imagine, doesn’t feel like a very market-moving event.
Why I recently reverted back to not wearing a smart watch...unless I am actively working out. I didn't have notifications on my last one, but I didn't even want to see the metrics. I don't need to know every heartbeat or step I take. Simplify the right things, fill your mind…
Trump's advisers keep downplaying the extent of his tariff proposals -- saying this 10% idea is just one more extreme idea among many -- but then Trump himself keeps suggesting he would actually like to be *more* aggressive
The "increase in gig work" apparent in tax data seems to reflect a change in taxpayer reporting behavior, not an actual change in the amount of gig work happening in the economy. New NBER paper by @andy_garin @JacksonEmilieA & Dmitri Koustas. nber.org/papers/w32368
@hannahdreier @byHeatherLong Thank you for covering this 🙏
I’m such a foodie so lmk all the good food spots in Chicago!! 😭💖
Angel Reese has been living out of her suitcase ever since she was drafted, but the @chicagosky rookie did find some good eats in the city "Harold's Chicken is bussin'. I ain't going to lie to you." More @Reese10Angel: tinyurl.com/mr4dnu6t
The "unexpected" bump up in 2024q1 was partly driven by union contracts. Contract negotiation dates are staggered, and union workers are catching up in real wage growth. I know this from personal experience: our union was one of those, and we got a sizable 2024q1 catch-up bump.
Also, h/t to Brian, union pay up bigtime in the Q1 ECI x.com/brianmcclardcf…
Important: @byHeatherLong @kairyssdal travel to PHX to examine efforts to deliver the 28,000 "technicians" needed to run America's coming array of giant semiconductor factories. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/… @MarthaHRoss
NEW: Is this America’s next big middle-class job? 28,000 more “technicians” will soon be needed to run giant machines that make tiny semiconductor chips used in phones, cars, missiles, etc. Pay starts at ~$25/hr @kairyssdal @MHollenhorst & I went to Phoenix to see this "chips…
For more on what needs to happen to ensure America's coming new semiconductor fabs are staffed by a thousands of decently paid tech-collar workers see the @BrookingsMetro paper @MarthaHRoss and I released recently @joeparilla @Rachel_Lipson
Another problem? Few kids in America grow up dreaming of working in a semiconductor "fab" It takes time -- and good pay -- to get the word out about these chips jobs. It also takes ~1 year of training to really succeed.
On a day when better-than-expected wage data is seen as further diminishing the chances of rate cuts in 2024, it's worth remembering that the pandemic was really the only time in the past 60 years that the Fed ever let wage growth run above interest rates for an extended period
Use our migrant child labor data! More children are crossing the border on their own than ever before, and thousands are ending up doing dangerous, illegal jobs. We sued the government for a huge trove of data about these kids, and shared it all here: github.com/nytimes/hhs-ch…
@byHeatherLong @kairyssdal @MHollenhorst Not starting $25/hr. Maybe 3x that.
I am begging —BEGGING—journalists who cover housing and the economy to dig into this research. In most U.S. metros, a large share of new “luxury” market rate housing is affordable to low-income families at 60-80% AMI.
INTERACTIVE MAP & RESEARCH: How much of your city's new housing is priced affordable to low-income families? Probably more than you think! Glad to be in @metroabundance: metroabundance.org/how-inclusiona…
As giant factories rise up in the desert, @byHeatherLong heads to Arizona to chronicle the challenges and promise on the ground washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…
"The biggest problem for America’s chips boom? The workers." @byHeatherLong @PostOpinions with photos by @cassidy_araiza @caitlin_oh washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…
One of the best interns CNN has ever had
As if @johntowfighi didn’t wow all of us at CNN enough…