ASX Bull @asxbulll
New ASX investor / trader ... nothing makes you learn faster than losing money! Joined March 2020-
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Great chart from @AriWald this AM, "Investors Intelligence reported their Bull/Bear ratio dropped to 2.1 from 3.9 w/ bullishness sliding to 46.2% from 56.5%. Prior 5 occurrences of bulls falling at least 10% in a week include Oct 1987, Nov 1991, March 2008, Jan 2010 & Feb 2018"
This is clearly not heading in the right direction: 3-month annualized change in core PCE #inflation up to +4.4% in March
9) In the end, it's extremely difficult to make a bullish case for stocks/housing when they're so insanely overvalued relative to the size of the US economy (GDP). In the long-run, it's economic production and incomes which dictate where asset markets go. Indicating that we…
Another crazy chart: The Nasdaq 100 index, relative to commodities has reached the highest level since the Dot-com bubble. Meanwhile, US tech market cap share of the total US equity market is at 33%, also the largest since March 2000. Since 2021, the Nasdaq 100 has DOUBLED…
Ponder this: Why have ever looser financial conditions been overtly encouraged & liquidity flooded the system despite the inflation target not having been reached? And why has Powell refused to even acknowledge it yesterday? Imagine US government debt refinance obligations are so…
This presser by Powell was extremely reckless. He is basically saying he is not data dependent, and will cut rates and slow QT, even if infaltion goes higher and jobs are plentiful. At some point, bond investors will disregard the @federalreserve, and demand higher yields to…
These gap downs on news are not helping the trading/investing account … $PIQ down ~ 25% today after being smoked recently on $ACE. At least I managed to get out on the match this time and had a smaller position to manage risk.
$MAH first close above 20c since Nov 2021 (held)
Sold my position in $IMC on Mon after breaking support and large new sell volume entered the market at the offer. Despite wanting the share price to fall to feel better about selling, did we learn anything new from today’s announcement?
BREAKING: New York Community Bank stock, $NYCB, rises 20% after announcing $1 billion capital raise. The stock is now up 125% from its low of the day seen just 2 hours ago. Completely normal behavior for a bank with $100 billion+ in assets.
For the last decade, it was nearly impossible to have a green market while Apple, $AAPL, was red. So far in 2024, the S&P 500 is UP 8% while $AAPL is DOWN 8%. Meanwhile, Nvidia, $NVDA, is up nearly 80% in the first 2 months of 2024. It's amazing how quickly the narrative has…
As of 4Q2023, serious delinquency rate for auto loans rose to 2.66% (highest since 2Q2010)
Serious delinquency rate (+90 days) for credit cards (blue) rose in 4Q2023 to highest since 2Q2011 … year/year change (orange) in rate rose to fastest since 3Q2009
$ACE yep unsuccessful with Washington State as announced to market this morning. Sell off makes sense now. Probably not a huge move down today if already priced in.
$ACE yep unsuccessful with Washington State as announced to market this morning. Sell off makes sense now. Probably not a huge move down today if already priced in.
@ADL_PropDrops Aus will need 'MortgageKeeper' soon.
$XJO closed at all time highs yesterday but less than a third of all companies on the ASX closed above their 200 day SMA. A lot of boats have been left behind in the rising tide so far.
$ACE destroyed … were they unsuccessful with the Washington State contract too or just Western Europe? Seemed like a bigger reaction than expected based on the news released to market.
$ACE destroyed … were they unsuccessful with the Washington State contract too or just Western Europe? Seemed like a bigger reaction than expected based on the news released to market. https://t.co/7d9UgW9feS
How does everyone else go fighting the technical vs fundamental when making trading/investing decisions? Feeling a bit wrecked after some consecutive poor outcomes in $ACE and $VEE. A few notes attached.
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It is never comfortable confronting outsized losses and the big red trading days. Yesterday was my largest hit of the year (-$40k). However, it is exactly in these moments we need to face up to reality, reflect, and learn. Without this, there is no growth. The brain isn’t…
@asxbulll Thanks mate! I’ve been lucky recently not to have been hit with any negative news but I’m only holding for a few days usually - it’s definitely happened in the past and I’m sure it’ll happen again, just have to wear the risk.
It's been a while since I've posted but thought I'd share a bit of a milestone. Last year was tough, I felt like I went backwards and I wasn't sure if I'd make it as a trader, but with some better conditions this year I finally feel like I'm finding some consistency.
Pretty disappointing / frustrating start to April here. First full week back in a month and unfortunately it was made up mostly of a total lack of discipline and stupid (avoidable) decision making (ie Fading) which I should know better.
@asxbulll Gap downs are killers, they really are but its inevitable. With gap downs I dont change the result if gapped down larger than (x)% amount
Not only was an ASX announcement a career goal of mine, but I'm confident this will be the biggest move in @RaskAustralia's history of helping Australians invest better. I'm viewing this as a 5-10 year journey (at minimum), and I think it serves as a precedent for what's to come…
@asxbulll Has predominantly been the same handful of stocks pushing our market up here, most of everything else has been average. Similar story in the US
End of week has coincided with month end so decided to share Feb stats for something different. Pretty solid month and largely am happy with net result, however given opportunity set there was no reason this couldn't have been 20k+.
Complacency can be a killer in Trading. Making money -> overconfident -> cut corners -> stray outside lane -> take an outsized hit. I had this experience coming into today. All you can do is write, learn, make new safeguards and move on. It never stops $LYC
@asxbulll It’s difficult to take a fundamental view on coys that don’t generate any income as your view can only be formed based on the promises of management. In those situations you only have technicals to fall back on for confirmation as management are often not telling you everything…
Inflation is under control.... $QBE Meanwhile, Woolies is under investigation for charging an extra $1/kg for Broccoli 🤡
$GDX a bit of base starting to take shape #GOLD
@asxbulll Very poor management decisions to get to this point. They had an $11m tax liability due last qtr which they’ve known about the whole time & paid it with debt….kept paying dividends that exceeded net income so supplementing them with debt as well 🤡
I like that. Applies to life and markets.
It may take some hard work. But the more you say no to the things that don’t matter, the more you can say yes to the things that do. -Ryan Holiday
More good learnings and takeaways this week, as well as important confidence builder. Hoping to lean on this form into no doubt a busy next week.
“Dow Futures fell 100 points and the VIX rose this Friday on news of new all-time highs for the stock market”
One of the best feelings is when you can move a stop to breakeven. The next best feeling is when the 10-day catches up to your breakeven stop. After that is probably when a stock breaks your stop and keeps on tanking, meaning your risk management helped you avoid a disaster.…
@allstarcharts Of course, it could all change tomorrow. I'm just giving you feedback based on listening to you for a long time, thats all. No disrespect intended.
+$1.7k for Jan. Steady start to the year so far. No standout trades, just a lot of scalping for the most part. Made one poor trade in DVP trying to BTD which couldve been a lot worse than it ended up. Had the last week of Jan off & ready to get back into it again tomorrow!
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